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[Neil]

200 points less than last year for a final spot, but a Murray v Fed final would pretty much guarantee number 1 spot for the winner. Murray would overtake Rafa 20th July when Queens points replace his Indy zero-pointer. Also the Olympics points drop off August, so Murray would be well placed regardless going into USO

SO MUCH AT STAKE!

Yeah but Murray can't hang on to the ranking. He'd lose it prior to Montreal on the 3rd August if Fed reaches the semi-final. Probably certain to be top 2 though which is the key point I suppose

[Joe]

But he'd have it! He'd have been no1 in the world at one stage!!! That's immense!

It would be galling for Djoko too, given his arrogance at the start of last year!

[Coldmarek]

Hopefully he will be overtaken soon.

[ljsmall]

He's not comfortable but he does seem to have the luxury of playing in. Not too many banana skins for him in his quarter.

[Yamor]

There are five possibilities for how the top of the rankings will look in the coming month. Here they all are:

Murray loses in the semis
Federer does not win the tournament

Date 1 2 3 4

6th July Nadal Federer Murray Djokovic

20th July Nadal Federer Murray Djokovic

27th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

3rd August Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

Murray loses in the final
Federer loses in the semis

Date 1 2 3 4

6th July Nadal Federer Murray Djokovic

20th July Nadal Murray Federer Djokovic

27th July Federer Murray Nadal Djokovic

3rd August Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

Murray loses in the semis
Federer wins the tournament

Date 1 2 3 4

6th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

20th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

27th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

3rd August Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

Murray wins the tournament

Date 1 2 3 4

6th July Nadal Murray Federer Djokovic

20th July Murray Nadal Federer Djokovic

27th July Murray Federer Nadal Djokovic

3rd August Federer Murray Nadal Djokovic

Murray loses in the final
Federer wins the tournament

Date 1 2 3 4

6th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

20th July Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

27th July Federer Murray Nadal Djokovic

3rd August Federer Nadal Murray Djokovic

[Bevc]

Shay, you are a stats-wielding bad-ass angel sent from on high to help us unravel the complexity of the ATP-rankings system Not only that, but you do it at 2.42AM when us mere mortals are snoring and dribbling...  Truly, we are not worthy

Amen to that!   Astounding amount of talent on MW

I'll take scenario no.4 please!

[Sir Panda]

Even just to be no 1 for a brief moment is amazing, he's got a lot of hard work to do though in the next 5 months.

Cheers, Shay.

[Yamor]

If Murray goes no-1, how much ahead would he be in points? Can't Fed/Nadal do a crappy tournament to try and take it back?

I'm not really sure what you mean. If you look at my previous post you'll see it's anyway impossible for Murray to hold on to the number 1 spot for more then two weeks even if Federer/Nadal do not play any other tournaments.
If you mean to say is it possible for Federer/Nadal to stop Murray being number 1 at all by playing crappy tournaments, then the answer is that Federer could not, but nadal theoretically could by accepting wildcards both into Newport next week, and a tournament the week after as well. Now, Nadal has pulled out of Davis Cup next week, so he's not going to be accepting wildcards like that. So basically, Murray is guaranteed number 1 if he wins Wimbledon.

Remember, you can work out yourself all possible scenarios by using the spreadsheet I posted up a few weeks ago (I linked to it in the opening post of the thread where I put up the Wimbledon spreadsheet).