Unfortunately this is the first year in the last 3 or 4 that I think Andy has absolutely no chance of winning Wimbledon. He's just not shown the improvement this year we all hoped to see and he will probably have to beat BOTH Joker and Nadal to win it. I doubt he can beat one of them because the gap has widened this year in my opinion between these 2 guys and the rest. Even Federer can't keep up. So for me Andy can only realistically reach the semi-finals this year.
Why do I almost never agree with you on anything
But here i have a partial agreement.
I don't think Andy can beat Rafa in a slam that is not a HC, and even then I'm only 50/50 at best.
The new aggressive Andy is not ready yet although i wouldnt be surprised if he took it to 5 this time.
I'm pretty sure he can take Novak out.
Although he won it last year it isnt a surface like clay where he is simply better than Andy and his results previously to last year were slightly worse.
Sadly i feel it will be one of fedal again, and sadly for you not the fed part
of this tired concept.