To be honest, I thought Judy just said he'd be relatively immobile, meaning that he wouldn't be able to do much exercise, or any heavy lifting and is probably what the doctors ordered. It's all relative.
The main point is that we don't really know, and trying to guess is a hiding to nothing. It's great that he was seen out for a walk, but realistically, he was standing still in the photo. We don't know how fast he was walking, or how far he went, or how many painkillers he needed.
He can't be too bad if he's able to make a trip by car (even as a passenger) to watch the football, but again, we don't know how far he walked, or if he was forced to use the lift, or how many painkillers he was taking.
Doing these things is promising, but it doesn't give any meaningful indication of when he'll be ready to play a sport that has a much more demanding range of movements and will put a lot more stress on the operation site.
Thankfully, he's not gone into a media black-out and seems happy enough to tweet regularly and add to his Facebook, so hopefully when he is back at training, we'll know about it.
Unfortunately I heard a quite different version of events from Judy, which did not sound very encouraging.
Perhaps it's a bit unfortunate that she was already scheduled to appear on TV twice last week and so was inevitably going to be asked about it, although she did refuse to say what the op had been for - maybe at Andy's request because he's consistently declined to enlighten us as to what the problem was - because it seems to me that all she did was to further confuse a situation which was already a little confusing, and thereby only fuelling more speculation, much of which seemed to be of the glass half-empty kind.
Apart from that I entirely agree with the rest of your post, and I'm content now to hear what comes from Andy himself via his tweets. What will be, will be.