I was trying to work out why Nole always an easy draw and I realised it's because he rarely ever loses to anyone outside the top 4, especially not in a Slam. I think the likes of Isner and Raonic would be the biggest threats. The likes of Ferrer, Del Potro, Berdych, etc would trouble most players but Djokovic has rarely struggled against them.
A very in-from Tsonga can be very dangerous for Nole. And if Berdych can stay together then he can be just as dangerous. He has taken Nole out of GS one time already though Nole has gotten significantly better since 2011, but grass is still not his best surface. He has lost to Berdych, Del Potro, Federer on grass so they are all threats to him on grass and Andy as well, but since this is hard court - his best surface - the threats are far less and a few. Ferrer doesn't have the mental capacity to beat Nole in a GS. A healthy and well rested Del Potro can be dangerous especially here at the AO but he's not on Nole's side. So that doesn't really leave too many players. Nole is more than likely to prevail against both Federer and Nadal, but they will be hard fought matches, but the fact remains, he's just too good on hard and only a couple of people can pose real danger. So whether he has a cakewalk or tough draw doesn't really matter, but a tough road can definitely make it harder for him to win the Slam, since either Andy or Federer won't be as ideal for him especially if they remain fresher than Nole.
Last night I noticed the ESPN team (Brad Gillbert, Darren Cahill, Mary Jo and Chris Fowler) seem to think Andy has the toughest road. This is because they took Del Potro, Federer and Nole into account. Together with the fact that it is the hardest thing to do to win your 2nd consecutive Slam. So all of them picked Nole to win the AO though I got the distinct feeling that they’d be very pleased if they were proven wrong. Brad then went on to say that Andy is going to win 2 Slams this year. He didn’t specify which two however. They all did side with an Andy/Nole final in the end.
Some Federer fans made a big deal about ESPN team not picking Federer at all but what they forget is that it’s nothing personal. They are simply going by the draws and the hottest player on hard at the moment.