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Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy

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teejay1
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #420 on: August 17, 2012, 01:19 PM »
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no not thick tj as the system is confusing.  ATP rankings are what decides whether you're #1 etc and are based on a rolling annual count so each week the same points gained in the equivalent week last year fall off.  The race is, as you say, what decides who qualifies for the WTF and is based on points gained in the calendar year.  Ferrer has been doing v well until recently this calendar year so is doing v well in the race. Andy is still carrying alot of points from last Autumn so bigger gap between him and Ferrer in the rankings.  But of course this means Andy can't afford to drop many points between now and end of season though a good showing at WTF would be good news for his ranking.  Hope that makes sense - as I am sure no expert!

Thank you for the explanation. I had basically understood it right, but it is very confusing. I meant to ask a little while ago, bearing in mind it has been said that Nadal, Federer and Djokovic are the only three to qualify for the WTF so far, exactly what Andy needed to do to qualify, but I guess that is obvious - get some points behind him. Makes me wish even more that the Olympics carried more points.
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Philip
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #421 on: August 17, 2012, 01:32 PM »
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In all likelihood, Andy has secured enough points to be ranked top 8 (and possibly top 7 in the unlikely scenario someone outside the top 8 wins the USO). Mathematically, it is still possible for others to push him down below #8 but realistically it is not going to happen. Andy will likely be secure post USO.
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Ruthie
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #422 on: August 17, 2012, 02:20 PM »
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I think the threshold for automatic qualification must be 6000 points?  Of course if Rafa is out for rest of season that's going to open up another space to someone but things would have to go badly wrong indeed for that to make any difference to Andy.   All being well he'll qualify post USO as Philip suggests.
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Emma Jean
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #423 on: August 17, 2012, 02:40 PM »
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Suggestions here of tanking. Hmm.

I doubt Murray wanted to burn 800 points just like that. Defending a title is always a great motivator too. However, I do believe that Murray commits less effort to Masters 1000s than he used to, and quite rightly. He is absolutely desperate to win that maiden slam, and if that requires less investment in the smaller tournaments, so be it.

Those points are important but you need to look at what's more important or what's the primary goal here. The primary goal is to win a Slam and the secondary one is to defend his points. When you take everything into account at this point of the season, you know that it's best to let these points go and concentrate more on the Slam as it's only a week and half away. Cincy is simply happening at the wrong time and at the wrong place for Andy. If he were to defend Cincy right now then he would have to beat Del Potro, Novak and Federer in the final and that’s really a very tough line and a bit too competitive just prior USO. You want to wait for the big stage for that to happen but more importantly, there’s no guarantee he was going to win all his matches here over these players. It’s still a toss-up and any loss to any of these guys be it Del Potro or Djokovic or Federer can be really damaging for the upcoming USO. So playing here, at this moment, is highly risky as Andy is the most vulnerable guy who’s still looking for his first ever Slam. For that reason, his strategy towards the Slams will always be very different than the top guys and it’s even utterly ridiculous to suggest that he should follow suit. 

The win over Querrey the other day was important as Querrey can be really dangerous in slams if he’s on and you don’t want to give him any mental edge, but the loss to Chardy is okay because he’s never a threat in the real sense.

This will most surely not guarantee a win at the USO don’t get me wrong but at the same time, we all know it never did either when he won this very event in the recent past twice (and Toronto twice) so clearly that’s not the trick here. What Andy’s doing is he is assessing the risks and taking precautions beforehand and protecting himself from a greater let down. It’s really and truly essential for a guy like Andy.
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Emma Jean
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #424 on: August 17, 2012, 03:03 PM »
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Nole’s focus especially since 2008 on was to protect his ranking mainly and he was really content with that or got too comfortable playing the second fiddle to the guys like Federer and Nadal and losing to them on a regular basis (he even lost to Andy 3 times in a row during that period) but that all changed once he took that hard loss to Nadal at the 2010 USO final which subsequently led him to win Davis Cup and rest is history. So Andy needs losses like these to keep him motivated and for bigger purpose. And we need it too because we need to stay grounded as well. This Olympics win isn’t going to last forever and Andy has yet to achieve his main goal, so it’s best to stay focused yet grounded and not get carried away. This is the reason why Lendl is least emotional around Andy because he just can’t afford to get carried away when there’s still so much to learn and so much to achieve.
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #425 on: August 17, 2012, 03:21 PM »
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I think the threshold for automatic qualification must be 6000 points?  Of course if Rafa is out for rest of season that's going to open up another space to someone but things would have to go badly wrong indeed for that to make any difference to Andy.   All being well he'll qualify post USO as Philip suggests.
4000 points is more than enough to qualify for the WTF.

Heck, last year 3000 points would have been enough.

For Andy not to qualify for the WTF it would mean he would have to finish the season ranked 9th or lower. It's not going to happen, not whilst he's reaching Slam and Masters finals.

No-one on here should have to worry about qualifying for the WTF. It's pretty much guaranteed, short of a severely injury-hit season. Ranking-wise, the only thing to worry about is falling outside the top 4. And with Ferrer just 600 points behind this season, it's something we should perhaps be looking at. Andy hasn't won a single Masters all season. In-fact, he's only won one tournament all year (Brisbane).

In all honesty this has been a pretty awful season for Andy, saved by the grass court season where he picked up 1960 ranking points. Our main saving grace is that these were the most recently major tournaments, so if he continues this form up he should comfortably finish ahead of Ferrer this year. But an early exit at the USO and there's is a serious chance Andy will finish 5th, or even 6th this year. He's got a lot of points to defend here on out and it is absolutely vital he does just that.

Oh and Rafa will comfortably finish this season 4th, at absolute worst. Only Andy really has the chance to exceed his 6840 points tally this year - none of the other players have ever got anywhere near. Andy is still very far behind though (2200), which is only bridgeable with a Masters win and/or Slam final included between now and end of the year (if Andy 'only' reached the semis of both remaining Masters and the USO he would still not catch Rafa). And this is all assuming Rafa doesn't return this year - nothing has been confirmed yet.
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Emma Jean
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #426 on: August 17, 2012, 03:26 PM »
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 I just tune myself out after a bad loss as I don't want to read anything negative. No forum browsing, no reading garbage materials either on newspapers or anywhere else, no nothing. So I don’t do garbage in garbage out. I just stick on here but things can get ugly here too and it even did during a match like the Olympics final, where Andy pretty much played his best tennis, but things were slightly out of control. So it’s never a sure thing that you are going to have a very positive and peaceful event regardless, but I just try my best to focus on the positive posts here. And that’s really far more important. Arguments settle nothing and have no purpose but to only bring people down. So I think the true fans of Andy who stand by Andy through thin and thick should overlook a handful of utterly negative posts and focus more on the positive posts and there are a lot of them.

Andy is a remarkably consistent player who has seen his ups and downs at times, sure, but in the end, he’s always made sure that he stayed on top of things and focused, otherwise there would be absolutely no reason for him to hire a high profile player like Lendl, if he were to only stay content and focused more on the ranking. He can do that without Lendl’s help as he’s been doing it since 2008. But right now, he needs Lendl to go the extra mile and he’s very, very close to it. Many, many have predicted that USO will be Andy’s first Slam for a number of reasons, but we don’t know that yet, but why don’t we just stay positive regardless  and send positive vibes. 

Mind you, the power of staying positive is much greater than the power of staying negative. If I were a Captain of a ship that’s in enormous danger and about to drown, then I don’t think I would ever tell my crews that there’s no escaping from this and that we might as well embrace the death. No. It’s always worth to fight the good fight even when you know that there’s absolutely no hope.  I mean Goran Ivanisevic after all won his one and only Slam at age almost 31 and I am sure, most if not all, gave up on him long before and perhaps the only person who still remained hopeful and positive was the man himself. Like everyone else, he could have given a long time ago too but he clearly didn’t.
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Ruthie
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #427 on: August 17, 2012, 03:35 PM »
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4000 points is more than enough to qualify for the WTF.

Heck, last year 3000 points would have been enough.

 

But Andy already has more than 4000 points this year in the race listings.  The other three seemed to qualify when they passed the 6000 mark confused

And EJ I can understand your position but I take the view if we let the negative posts go unchallenged then visitors to the site [of whom they are many] might think that people agree with them.  I don't want to be complicit in some of the negativity spouted about Andy.  I'm not talking about trolling, which I agree is best ignored once it's clear that's what it is.   
[ Last edit by Ruthie August 17, 2012, 03:49 PM ] IP Logged
teejay1
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #428 on: August 17, 2012, 03:51 PM »
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In-fact, he's only won one tournament all year (Brisbane).

Hi TMH and all,

I'm sorry, I can't resist it. Andy has won two tournaments, Brisbane and the Olympics. He won a very lovely gold medal in the singles.

The problem, as I see it, is that we can get bogged down by ifs and buts. If Andy does this, if Ferrer does that, if Federer demands on principle that he is given the USO just because.....Okay, that one was random, but you get my meaning.

I think because Andy did so well at Wimbledon, and then went one better at the Olympics, we're all getting a wee bit hysterical at the first real sign of a blip. Forget the points for a second and look at the big picture. Semi's in Australia and took Djokovic close. Sure, an average clay season, but would it have been considered average if last year hadn't been so good? However, quarters at the French wasn't bad. Then the Wimbledon final, and then the biggy at the Olympics, which just carries so few points it isn't even funny, but still, a win. Soon the USO will come upon us, and there is no doubt in my mind that Andy will be there to compete and will do well. Whatever else has gone on, and putting aside the USO though, my point is that Andy has had a pretty good year in the majors.

I feel like a stuck record, but I still think Andy is right to focus on the majors so much now. However, after that he can turn his attention to the part of the year where he does have a lot of points to defend, and I'm sure he will. Should he not defend them I think we can all start worrying, but he isn't in that position yet.


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TheMadHatter
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #429 on: August 17, 2012, 04:27 PM »
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But Andy already has more than 4000 points this year in the race listings.  The other three seemed to qualify when they passed the 6000 mark confused

And EJ I can understand your position but I take the view if we let the negative posts go unchallenged then visitors to the site [of whom they are many] might think that people agree with them.  I don't want to be complicit in some of the negativity spouted about Andy.  I'm not talking about trolling, which I agree is best ignored once it's clear that's what it is.  
He hasn't officially qualified because it's still mathematically possible for six other players to get more than 4000 points. Possible, but never going to happen.

Teejay, I was referring to the ATP events, but yes you're right. Still, two tournaments, worth 1000 points between them.

Nobody's getting hysterical, but I'm just putting it into context. He's had a great couple of months, but the previous six were poor and actually worse than Ferrer. I just don't want people getting carried away. "This is his time", "He's got to win the USO now!". How are people going to react if he doesn't win it? Are we back to doom and gloom? Of course we all hope this is the turning point, but fact of the matter is he still has to sustain this level and probably beat the two best players in the world (with 22 slams between them) to win the USO. That's a hard ask, and it's no shame if Andy doesn't win it. It will be disappointing, but he's clearly improved dramatically in the last couple of months, and has shown very clear signs that he can beat the best over five sets.

It's not just the clay season though is it. Sure, we can find reasons and excuses for the tournaments, but in the four hard-court Masters tournaments to date, Andy has only got past the 3rd round once (getting three byes to the final).  Yes, we can say they're not as important, focus is on Slams, etc, etc but ranking-wise, they bloody are. Then there was the Queen's defeat, and the clay season which was poor, regardless of comparisons to last year.

You're right, there is no point to worry right now. But with so many on here clamouring about overtaking Rafa in the rankings, it's worth remembering that Andy is much closer, ranking-wise, to the rest of the guys below him then the top three.
[ Last edit by TheMadHatter August 17, 2012, 04:44 PM ] IP Logged
backhandslice
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #430 on: August 17, 2012, 04:53 PM »
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Too much talk about rankings.  blah blah blah.  Sigh.  I can't sometimes with you people.  Andy has stayed at number 4/5 for the last 5 years.  He is no doubt the 4th best player in the world.  NO DOUBT.  It doesn't matter if he's number 6 or number 16 in the world according to the rankings.  Its the tennis player itself that counts.  Its the actual tennis player that reaches GS finals and wins titles,  its  not the number written beside your name.
 If you look it at this way.  Olympics is just below a GS win  imo.  Its not far off it. 

Andy's  win/loss record   Olympics and GS this year.  22-3
Andy's win/loss record  All other tournaments this year.  17-7.    Enough said.
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Ruthie
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #431 on: August 17, 2012, 04:54 PM »
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Ah I understand now what was meant by the 4000 ie at 6000 you qualify automatically but if you get above 4000, you've got a good chance of being in top 8.
I agree tmh that we shouldn't get carried away by Andy's great form at Wimbledon and Olympics.  He himself made the point that while yes winning the gold should give him more confidence, he is moving on to a different surface now and it can take time to adjust.  I think he was very wisely trying to keep a lid on expectations for the USO.  Let's all rejoice in what he has already achieved, cut him abit of slack for his defeat yesterday and support him to the hilt for forthcoming USO and what follows.
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #432 on: August 17, 2012, 05:12 PM »
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Those points are important but you need to look at what's more important or what's the primary goal here. The primary goal is to win a Slam and the secondary one is to defend his points. When you take everything into account at this point of the season, you know that it's best to let these points go and concentrate more on the Slam as it's only a week and half away. Cincy is simply happening at the wrong time and at the wrong place for Andy. If he were to defend Cincy right now then he would have to beat Del Potro, Novak and Federer in the final and that’s really a very tough line and a bit too competitive just prior USO. You want to wait for the big stage for that to happen but more importantly, there’s no guarantee he was going to win all his matches here over these players. It’s still a toss-up and any loss to any of these guys be it Del Potro or Djokovic or Federer can be really damaging for the upcoming USO. So playing here, at this moment, is highly risky as Andy is the most vulnerable guy who’s still looking for his first ever Slam. For that reason, his strategy towards the Slams will always be very different than the top guys and it’s even utterly ridiculous to suggest that he should follow suit. 

The win over Querrey the other day was important as Querrey can be really dangerous in slams if he’s on and you don’t want to give him any mental edge, but the loss to Chardy is okay because he’s never a threat in the real sense.

This will most surely not guarantee a win at the USO don’t get me wrong but at the same time, we all know it never did either when he won this very event in the recent past twice (and Toronto twice) so clearly that’s not the trick here. What Andy’s doing is he is assessing the risks and taking precautions beforehand and protecting himself from a greater let down. It’s really and truly essential for a guy like Andy.


I think your assessment is spot on EJ and I'm pretty sure Andy and Lendl would have talked all this through.
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Philip
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #433 on: August 17, 2012, 05:16 PM »
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Ruthie, there is no cut off point. It is very simple. The top 8 in ranking points earned over the year 2012 will qualify for the final with the exception that GS winners always qualify regardless of their position.

Nadal, nole and fed are already qualified because mathematically, it is impossible for more than 5 players to overtake them points wise and they are GS winners so the number of points are irrelevant anyway.
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Philip
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Re: Cincinnati R3 : Murray v Chardy « Reply #434 on: August 17, 2012, 05:19 PM »
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Hmmm. Just had a thought. They should include Olympic champion into the automatic qualification criteria for WTF. Of course if they change the rule, they will need to double the pts earned to 1500 to make it worth more than a MS
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