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Poll
Question: Who progresses to the semis?
Andy in 3 - 8 (17.8%)
Andy in 4 - 17 (37.8%)
Andy in 5 - 13 (28.9%)
David in 3 - 3 (6.7%)
David in 4 - 2 (4.4%)
David in 5 - 2 (4.4%)
Total Voters: 43

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FO QF : Murray v Ferrer

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Knights
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #30 on: June 05, 2012, 10:56 AM »
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Im going for Andy in 4, the only way Andy can win is if he doesn't have a start the way he started against Gasquet.  cmonandy
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Alis
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #31 on: June 05, 2012, 11:25 AM »
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Now, I'm  not a betting man, honest.  A tenner on the Grand National once a year, that's my lot.

I had a quick look online to see the latest odds, and to check out what the bookies reckon.  They've actually got Ferrer as favourite to beat Andy, which doesn't add up to me.  Never mind, the bookies usually know best.

Then I looked at the odds to win the tournament outright.  Rafa is favourite, whcih is fair enough.  Andy is 40-1.

What?  40-1?  Now, I appreciate that Andy's chances of winning the tournament aren't great, but they've got to be better than 40 -1, surely?  Hell, Nadal could have an off day and lose his QF - it happens.  Or he could get injured.  Same for Djoko and Federer.   Or Andy could play like he played for the final two sets tonight and be capable of taking on anyone....

40-1??  Hell, I'm tempted to take a small punt on that..........

I never bet either but before the Gasquet match Andy was 50-1 so I asked my son to put a fiver on for me!
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mickeypops
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #32 on: June 05, 2012, 01:03 PM »
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I never bet either but before the Gasquet match Andy was 50-1 so I asked my son to put a fiver on for me!

Well, I've had a wee flutter myself.  There are eight men left in the tournament.  OK, Nadal is a clear favourite, and that's fair enough.  But should he trip up, then I don't reckon Djoko or Fed or anyone else has much of  better chance than Andy.  They aren't looking THAT impressive, are they? 

OK, so it's on clay - and Andy has never won on clay; but don't tell me he can't play on the surface as he patently can.  He's going to break his duck on the dirt stuff one day, so why not now?

I'm  not saying it's likely, but it's a far, far better chance than the 40-1 odds on offfer.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #33 on: June 05, 2012, 01:25 PM »
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I'm going for Andy in straight sets.  Let face Ferrer is not a shot maker  he's a grinder.  Doesn't really have any big weapons.  Andy is better at everything than Ferrer, Serve  Backhand  the Fh might be questionable.  can someone tell me  like a real expert tennis fan  as to why clay is different from other surfaces.  I know that sounds like a stupid question but I just want to know.. other than  its slower?   Also  Ferrer hasn't faced Andy on clay for a very long time.  Ferrer doesn't scare me.. what scares me is Rafa.  cmonandy

You don't get to #5 in the world if you're just a grinder. He is capable of some big shots and his serve can be very difficult to return when he's on song (in spite of his height).

If Andy's on song then he should win, but the problem is the performance from yesterday's latter two sets we've rarely seen all clay season (bar against Troicki in the opener). Which is why I'm a bit pessimistic.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #34 on: June 05, 2012, 01:29 PM »
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Well, I've had a wee flutter myself.  There are eight men left in the tournament.  OK, Nadal is a clear favourite, and that's fair enough.  But should he trip up, then I don't reckon Djoko or Fed or anyone else has much of  better chance than Andy.  They aren't looking THAT impressive, are they? 

OK, so it's on clay - and Andy has never won on clay; but don't tell me he can't play on the surface as he patently can.  He's going to break his duck on the dirt stuff one day, so why not now?

I'm  not saying it's likely, but it's a far, far better chance than the 40-1 odds on offfer.
I think the odds reflect Nadal's dominance rather than Andy's chances to be honest. You're right in that if he were to go out somehow then it would really open the door - but let's face it, in seven years Nadal has only gone out once and it's very rare he ever retires or withdraws mid-tournament (and personally I have my doubts over any injury back in Miami), especially at this stage of the year. The chances of him not winning are very slim, although the reason the odds are higher on Djokovic and Federer are because they have proven they can win tournaments on this surface, getting past Nadal (or his conqueror) en route. I think the odds are fair enough.
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syc23
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #35 on: June 05, 2012, 01:54 PM »
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Let's remember unlike Andy, Rafa and David has not really been tested so this may work to Andy's advantage. Novak, Roger, Delpo and Andy have all had negotiated their 'tricky' match so will be match tough for the QF and beyond.
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mickeypops
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #36 on: June 05, 2012, 01:54 PM »
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I think the odds reflect Nadal's dominance rather than Andy's chances to be honest. You're right in that if he were to go out somehow then it would really open the door - but let's face it, in seven years Nadal has only gone out once and it's very rare he ever retires or withdraws mid-tournament (and personally I have my doubts over any injury back in Miami), especially at this stage of the year. The chances of him not winning are very slim, although the reason the odds are higher on Djokovic and Federer are because they have proven they can win tournaments on this surface, getting past Nadal (or his conqueror) en route. I think the odds are fair enough.

MadH, I agree pretty much with all of your analysis, with the two exceptions;

Firstly, I think the chances of Nadal not winning are greater than "very slim."  He's still the outstanding favourite, and has a brilliant record at the FO, but he is not unbeatable, even on clay.

Secondly, I still think that the current odds of 40-1 are generous.  There's no way of accurately assessing the probabilities of Andy winning from here, but I think it's better than one time in forty. 
Still, that's just a personal opinion.
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Emma Jean
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #37 on: June 05, 2012, 04:24 PM »
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The crowd won’t be a factor in this match. I don’t think they particularly care for Spanish players and as to Andy, who knows, but I’d rather they boo him. But I don’t think they will have a clear favourite going into the match and so they will probably swing both ways, as long as they find something to boo about.

Now on to the match itself. I don’t see Andy being as motivated as the other day, so I don’t think there will be a similar level of play (3rd and 4th set). If we take Pete’s advice then this is the 2nd week of a GS, where it’s essential for Andy to keep his matches short and spend as less energy as possible to save himself for the final two rounds. In other words, be aggressive and end the points as quickly as possible. There’s no point going toe to toe with Ferrer. Ferrer can do that all day and eventually it’s Andy who’s going to get frustrated and will end up making errors anyway. If that were to happen then he might as well be aggressive and play hit or miss game. I really think Andy knows what to do but whether he’ll be able to execute his gameplan properly or not that’s the question.

Another thing to consider is the time they played their last match and according to their H2H, it was in 2010. Last year, Andy had significantly better results and it seems he’s improved much more on this surface, so I think that will play a significant part in the match as well.

Finally and I really think this will be the most important factor in the match, Andy is not the favourite to win this match. And this being his least favourable surface, he becomes the least favourite of them all including Nadal, Nole, Federer, Ferrer and Del Potro etc. So, in other words, Andy has absolutely no pressure but he is also the dark horse. I don’t think anyone knows, including his fans, what he’s going to come up with against Ferrer, but I also think, it’s high time Andy gets a win over a top 10 player on clay and a win over Ferrer will be a real boost to his confidence. On the other hand, if he loses, it won’t be such a big deal and we all more or less like Ferrer, so it's not going to stink for a while.

I say it's a win-win.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #38 on: June 05, 2012, 05:07 PM »
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Agree with that. I think I'd take a QF exit given the last few tournaments and the Nieminen match. Nothing to lose here now, obviously desperate for him to win but it's far from the end of the world if he loses here and Ferrer is a mean player, especially on this surface, to play against.

Will just try to remind myself to enjoy the match and hope Andy comes out and plays aggressive. Nothing to lose now, just go for it.
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Emma Jean
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #39 on: June 05, 2012, 05:15 PM »
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Unfortunately for me, I am stuck in a departmental meeting from 10am to 1:30 (includes lunch), so I don't think I'll be able to watch it at all if it falls in that time frame, which it will most surely. But I'll be able to check the scores from time to time on my phone. Thankfully, this meeting is onsite so I may not have to be there for the entire time during lunch. So let's see but I wish our boy all the best and hope he will come on top tomorrow. Hear, hear!
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scotnadian
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #40 on: June 05, 2012, 05:22 PM »
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They are talking about bad weather tomorrow... so who knows how it will all pan out. 
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Emma Jean
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #41 on: June 05, 2012, 05:24 PM »
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I really think they should be done with both qtr finals tomorrow if they can or else, the other side will have huge advantage in the semi and that would be truly unfair for this side. 
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scotnadian
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #42 on: June 05, 2012, 05:27 PM »
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^ Aye... just like the USO.
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Mackem
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #43 on: June 05, 2012, 05:51 PM »
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^ Aye... just like the USO.
USO scheduling is a joke - embarrassing - pathetic!
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BigNose
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Re: FO QF : Murray v Ferrer « Reply #44 on: June 05, 2012, 07:10 PM »
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Now on to the match itself. I don’t see Andy being as motivated as the other day, so I don’t think there will be a similar level of play (3rd and 4th set).
...
So, in other words, Andy has absolutely no pressure but he is also the dark horse.

Andy not being as motivated as he was against Gasquet? You must be having a laugh. He's playing in the quarter finals of a Slam. He'll be 100% motivated and he will be under a lot of pressure to keep his run of Slam semis going.

Its obvious from his comments last year Andy is immensely proud of being one of only 7 or 8 players in history to have reached the 4 Slam semis in one year. I'm sure he's already thinking of repeating that feat this year. Who else has done this 2 years in a row bar Fed?
[ Last edit by BigNose June 05, 2012, 07:27 PM ] IP Logged
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