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How many slams?

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blueberryhill
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #75 on: September 13, 2012, 06:31 PM »
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He's so shy and modest, he can't say a lot. wub
But we can  cmon yeah cmon yeah cmon yeah cmon yeah cmon yeah
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The Gnome
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #76 on: September 14, 2012, 12:24 AM »
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This may sound daft and even saying it out loud seems daft, but i think the next slam Andy will win will be 2013 french open Whistle don't know why, but i just have this feeling that it's the only slam he's not predicted to win next year, it's the one slam he probably feels the least pressure to win and now that he has won the USO i think he will be motivated more to win that one before he has a crack at Wimbledon next year.

Andy isn't as poor on clay as his record suggests, in fact i'm pretty sure i've read somewhere he feels it's his best surface, as clay was where he honed his talents when he went to Spain in his teens.
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laundry
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #77 on: September 14, 2012, 12:31 AM »
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I said the same thing Gnome, Andy certainly preferred clay over grass when he was younger anyway.
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janetx
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #78 on: September 14, 2012, 12:40 AM »
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Perhaps Andy will win the FO, and his results on clay thus far may not be a clear indication of his potential/abilities on that surface.
After all, as "TG" points out, he did train in Spain (in the rain? on a plain? :p) as a teen, so he would've learnt key aspects of his game on clay, I am assuming?
It's very difficult to predict, but each of the top four are all-surface players methinks, though some may play better on one surface than another.  

[ Last edit by janetx September 14, 2012, 12:44 AM ] IP Logged
TheMadHatter
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #79 on: September 14, 2012, 01:00 AM »
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People kept on trotting this out earlier this year. Less pressure, he'll surprise us, etc.

He's not going to win a big clay tournament until he sorts out his movement on it. Which might never happen. Movement is the biggest part of his game. When he's moving well, he much more comfortable, much more confident, and as a result, serves and plays much better and more consistent. Hence his grass court performances. On the clay however, because he still struggles with the movement around it, he makes far more errors, gets more annoyed and generally struggles. I'd say he's about quarter-final standard on clay right now, behind Ferrer and Berdych as well as the rest of the top four. Maybe Del Potro too, not sure where he is right now on clay.

He did train on clay and I understand he played a lot of clay futures when he was just starting out, but that was a long time ago. I don't think he'll ever win the French, personally. Certainly not while Rafa's around.
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The Gnome
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #80 on: September 14, 2012, 01:03 AM »
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You're correct Janet, i agree on your comment about the top 4 being all surface players, it's just that Rafa has been the most consistent there. That said though, it certainly would be nice for Andy to get a career Grand slam, if he finishes with just 4 in his career, one of each would be nice  Little tongue man
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blueberryhill
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #81 on: September 14, 2012, 07:14 AM »
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@TMH
I agree. Andy's movement on clay is not nearly so good as his movement on the other surfaces. I looked at the way he moved on grass this year and thought "wow that's as good as Rafa moves on clay." Some compliment. thumb up
Having said that, I've a feeling Nole is going to take that clay crown this year. He does move nearly as well as Rafa on that surface and is going to be highly motivated.
More likely Andy gets AO. He has played so well out there previously, only a matter of time. cmon yeah
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Sabine
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #82 on: September 14, 2012, 09:41 AM »
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@TMH
I agree. Andy's movement on clay is not nearly so good as his movement on the other surfaces. I looked at the way he moved on grass this year and thought "wow that's as good as Rafa moves on clay." Some compliment. thumb up
Having said that, I've a feeling Nole is going to take that clay crown this year. He does move nearly as well as Rafa on that surface and is going to be highly motivated.
More likely Andy gets AO. He has played so well out there previously, only a matter of time. cmon yeah

It is always close margins during AO for everyone...
Everyone comes fully geared up for the first GS and whoever is able to take the crucial points eventually wins...so Andy has to come fully prepared for that. He is gonna win it...fingers crossed!!
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teejay1
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #83 on: September 14, 2012, 12:52 PM »
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Hi All,

I've just read an article that is predicting Andy is going to win 3 of the four majors next year. Wouldn't that really be something - I think I would just die of excitement, but it would be special lol.

I think for Andy winning the French would be a bit of a surprise. Even Lendl, when asked, expressed the view that it would be tough for him. I suppose that's not the same as saying he can't, but it would be a surprise.

The thing that interests me is that my feeling is that Andy's movement isn't as good on the clay, compared to on the grass and hard. Andy's game, it seems to me, is based around movement and speed, which puts him in the right positions to do what he wants with the ball. However, I've listened to a lot of the pundits who suggest he could be a very, very good player on clay and his game is made for it. The trouble is that none of them seem to want to clarify why his game is suited to clay.

I wonder how much of it is down to confidence on the clay as much as anything else. I wonder if winning the US might push him forwards, not only to winning the majors he seems made for, the AO, Wimbledon and the US (again!) but also to developing the things needed to make his clay game better.

I think we do have to remember Andy had a pretty good time on the clay last year, acheiving some semi's if I recall, including at the French for the first time. I vividly remember him playing almost on one leg in the end against Berrer, a German player, in the third round, when he had that nasty fall and hurt his ankle. Strangely, it seemed to make him play even better in that match lol. This year I'm convinced Andy was hampered on the clay by his back problem as much as anything else. If Andy is fully fit next year, and has a reasonable draw, I don't see any reason why he could not get to at least the quarter finals or maybe even the semi's at the French again. Anything after that would be a bonus, especially if by the time the French comes around he has already won his second major.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #84 on: September 14, 2012, 01:15 PM »
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It is always close margins during AO for everyone...
Everyone comes fully geared up for the first GS and whoever is able to take the crucial points eventually wins...so Andy has to come fully prepared for that. He is gonna win it...fingers crossed!!
He's been so consistent at the AO though. Final, Final, Semi-final (losing 5-7 in the 5th). In the past three years he's gone into it with some of his best form. Twice he's fallen at the final in straight sets, largely down to his mental fragility. Then not long after Lendl came in he came within 5 points of beating Djokovic for the first time in a five setter. Now that he's clearly become much, much more stronger mentally, and has won a Slam (beating Novak in five sets) I think he's more than capable of winning he AO in the next couple of years.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #85 on: September 14, 2012, 01:19 PM »
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Hi All,

I've just read an article that is predicting Andy is going to win 3 of the four majors next year. Wouldn't that really be something - I think I would just die of excitement, but it would be special lol.

I think for Andy winning the French would be a bit of a surprise. Even Lendl, when asked, expressed the view that it would be tough for him. I suppose that's not the same as saying he can't, but it would be a surprise.

The thing that interests me is that my feeling is that Andy's movement isn't as good on the clay, compared to on the grass and hard. Andy's game, it seems to me, is based around movement and speed, which puts him in the right positions to do what he wants with the ball. However, I've listened to a lot of the pundits who suggest he could be a very, very good player on clay and his game is made for it. The trouble is that none of them seem to want to clarify why his game is suited to clay.

I wonder how much of it is down to confidence on the clay as much as anything else. I wonder if winning the US might push him forwards, not only to winning the majors he seems made for, the AO, Wimbledon and the US (again!) but also to developing the things needed to make his clay game better.

I think we do have to remember Andy had a pretty good time on the clay last year, acheiving some semi's if I recall, including at the French for the first time. I vividly remember him playing almost on one leg in the end against Berrer, a German player, in the third round, when he had that nasty fall and hurt his ankle. Strangely, it seemed to make him play even better in that match lol. This year I'm convinced Andy was hampered on the clay by his back problem as much as anything else. If Andy is fully fit next year, and has a reasonable draw, I don't see any reason why he could not get to at least the quarter finals or maybe even the semi's at the French again. Anything after that would be a bonus, especially if by the time the French comes around he has already won his second major.
This is what worries me. Now he's got the monkey off his back of winning one major, he gets even more pressure in the form of expectation. I can just see the media predicting things like this, then the usual critics jumping on his back if he 'only' wins one slam next year, for instance. I wish they'd stop getting ahead of themselves, leave the pressure off and just wait and see.

Personally I think he will win one Slam next year. If I was to predict any, I'd say the AO, but I think he has just a good chance at Wimbledon or the USO. If he doesn't though, it's not the end of the world. I'd still be perfectly happy if this USO is the only one he wins. But I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can achieve now.
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teejay1
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #86 on: September 14, 2012, 02:33 PM »
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This is what worries me. Now he's got the monkey off his back of winning one major, he gets even more pressure in the form of expectation. I can just see the media predicting things like this, then the usual critics jumping on his back if he 'only' wins one slam next year, for instance. I wish they'd stop getting ahead of themselves, leave the pressure off and just wait and see.

I think you're right, absolutely. I'm wary of too much building up of Andy just to knock him down if he 'fails'. It is about one step at a time.

The thing is, no one knows what is going to happen. The only thing we know for sure is that Andy is playing some of the tennis of his life now, and it's good to see. He's also dealing with pressure so much better, has been all year, but it reached a peak in the USO final, and he came through. I still feel quite choked when I think about how brave he was, if that is the right word.

The only thing I would add though, is that it is quite nice to see Andy being considered a big threat for the major titles now. For a short time it was as if some within tennis were starting to write him off, going on about the gap between him, Djokovic, Federer and Nadal, as if it was huge. I never, ever thought such a gap existed, but there we are.

In a sense I think Andy has virtually always been under pressure to win slams. Well, now he has. I hope he goes in to the AO with greater confidence, the knowledge that he can play just as well, and better at times,than his nearest rivals and wanting to build on what he has acheived. That said, I don't care if the next one comes at the AO, or Wimbledon, or if he successfully defends the US title (I'd like him to do that one though, it would be fun!) because I do think it is inevitable in a sense that now he has got that first one others will follow.

I just think we are in a new phase with Andy now. Where we might have seen problems before, there seem to be possibilities. The future will be interesting to see.
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blueberryhill
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #87 on: September 14, 2012, 03:04 PM »
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@TMH. I agree completely, let us enjoy this moment.  As for me, still can't quite believe he's got that damn monkey off his back at long last tender
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Emma Jean
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #88 on: September 14, 2012, 03:54 PM »
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How Andy reacts to his this year's success will largely depend on how many Slams he's going to win next year and not to mention, going forward.
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Philip
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Re: How many slams? « Reply #89 on: September 14, 2012, 10:08 PM »
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The way I see it going forward is something like this :

If Nadal is healthy, he will compete well at AO and win the FO. Fed will be knocked out in the earlier rounds as he no longer has the stamina to stay till the SF. Even if he gets to the SF, he will lack the stamina to match Nole and Andy over best of 5 sets.

This leaves Andy, Nole and Nadal to compete at the AO 1/3 chance each for simplicity sake. Andy and Nole to compete for Wim and USO on 50/50 basis as Nadal will be burnt out again comes Wim. His knees can only take so much battering before they need rest to recuperate.

This gives Andy 1.33 GS (0.33, 0, 0.5, 0.5) per year. Over 5 years, this will turn into 6.65 GSs plus the one he has already won for 7.65 GSs rounded up to 8 GSs.  Putting this into integer numbers, I think that Andy will win 2 GSs per year in the next 3 years and maybe only 1 GS per year for the 4th and 5th year as his body slows down a little after all that running and exertions. The 2 GSs per year takes into consideration the fact that Lendl will improve Andy mental strength and techniques further. If Nadal is injured at the FO then there is a small chance of Andy completing the Golden Slam although winning the FO needs a lot more training to boost the FH speed and power to punch through the opponent on the slow clay so perhaps in 2014.

One thing I haven't considered is the possibility of Nadal dropping out of the top 4 positions due to his dodgy knees. In an unlucky draw, the top 2 players could face Nadal in the QF followed by Fed in the SF followed by the top 2 in the Final (assuming Fed is down to 3rd sometimes next year).
[ Last edit by Philip September 14, 2012, 10:26 PM ] IP Logged
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