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MurraysWorld Discussions  >  Murray Community  >  Andy Talk  >  Is Andy realistically the number 2 player in the world at the moment? 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
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Question: Is Andy Murray at the moment the second best tennis player?
YES - 17 (70.8%)
NO - 7 (29.2%)
Total Voters: 24

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Is Andy realistically the number 2 player in the world at the moment?

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Ruthie
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Seems to me that Andy is the best grass court player and he and Nole are pretty much neck and neck as the best hard court players.  Rafa continues to rule on clay - whether he'll be able to challenge Andy and Nole on hard courts will depend on his knees as has already been said.   But hard courts have always been the most problematic surface for him.
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ProdigyEng
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Seems to me that Andy is the best grass court player and he and Nole are pretty much neck and neck as the best hard court players.  Rafa continues to rule on clay - whether he'll be able to challenge Andy and Nole on hard courts will depend on his knees as has already been said.   But hard courts have always been the most problematic surface for him.

Depends on the speed of them, slow ones he will do fine, medium he will do okay, see tokyo... fast, not a chance.
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Ruthie
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I'm hopeless on speeds so perhaps someone could give a run down of the speeds of the main hard court tournaments coming up??
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*Sparkle*
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According to http://live-tennis.eu/race

The current cut-off for points is 6155, with Andy on 5160, but you have to remember that the cut-off is fluid, and has to allow for all possible combinations of points being allocated to the players in the running, so it has to include Andy winning no more points, and the player currently ranked 9th winning every possible point going from now until November.

So as the year progresses, and tournaments pass and points being allocated, the threshold drops, so there is a good chance that by Toronto, the threshold will be lower than Andy's existing points, never mind what he gains there.  By November, the cut-off will be closer to 3500.

However, there seems to be a rule that if a slam winner doesn't qualify in the top 8, it's the top 7 plus the slam winner, so I think the very worst case scenario for Andy not to qualify would be if the winner of the US Open doesn't qualify on points, yet still finishes the year ahead of Andy.  I expect that's a mathematical impossibility.

In other words - Andy has already qualified, but they'll wait to announce it in Canada or Cinci as it's an extra excuse for a news story, so extra publicity for the event.

Regarding Race Rankings - they are essentially "points earned so far this year".   It's all bit artificial, but so long as you remember what it actually is, it can be interesting.  It's inevitably skewed in favour of players who do well in the early part of the year, so it makes clay court specialists look good.  That's why i don't think seeding has anything to do with the order in which you qualify.

As the year progresses, the Race/Year to Date rankings look more like the regular, rolling annual total, rankings.   Later in the year it's easier to use that to work out who might become Year End #1, but right now, you really need to look towards the real rankings to get an impression of how well a player is predicted to do in the next few months.

Obviously, Rafa didn't earn any more points towards his regular ranking from now on, and everyone else has Olympics points to lose, but historically, this is the period where he struggles to earn points at the same rate as his rivals.   The biggest unknown is whether or not the time out will mean he does better this year, or if he's still got niggling problems.  Could it be he didn't bother trying to adjust his game to grass, hoping for the best, but planning to make gains on the longer hard-court season?
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laundry
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Will Andy possibly now on an average be better than Nadal and Djokovic for the rest of his career? If you look at this image I just made:


In red is the period that Nadal is better than both of them, in Yellow is the period that Djokovic is better than both of them, in blue is the predicted period that Andy will be better than both of them. Pink is where both Nadal and Djokovic is better than Murray, in green is where Djokovic and Murray are better than Nadal.

Obviously this graph is far, far from completely accurate or an exact science; for starters it doesn't factor in any ebbs or flows or different surfaces and it presumes that the 3 players are of equal maximum skill level and their progression of skill is identical. However.. if you were to follow an overall averaging of a player's ability over say an averaging period of 4 years you would expect to see it roughly follow some sort of curve. What I have always felt is that because Nadal and Djokovic started playing on tour before Murray, he was always playing catch-up to them; so yes Andy always kept improving but then Nadal and Djokovic did as well and since they always had a head-start like shown in the graph above they always stayed ahead of him. But now you would expect that the players will be going down the other end of the curve, so I believe it could well give Andy the big advantage over Nadal and Djokovic since they start to peak off earlier than Andy does.
[ Last edit by laundry July 22, 2013, 10:49 PM ] IP Logged
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