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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2015?
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Murray's Ranking

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ATL,  I note your points about the others behind Andy. 

I cannot seperate Kei and Raonic but doubt if either will get past Novak in a semi so no expecting them to make inroads as I do expect Andy to make semis most places. It is part of the new strategy to play deep into 500 & 1000 ATP events and he is showing that he is serious about doing that. He is a top four player so expected? I cannot see Ferrer beating Novak either so it is left with only Berdych making a move and he has looked poor this event.

Interesting thought about Fed making an effort on the clay!
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Nishikori has a decent record against Djokovic, from memory. Notable victories in Basel and New York. He would have to be on his game but I wouldn't totally rule it out.

Truth be told, I'm very wary of Murray's draw, even without Nadal and Wawrinka. It's really opened up now and he really should be making the final, but Anderson and Berdych are two players who have caused him problems in the past and we all know how common it seems to be these days for him to just not turn up in the latter stages of tournaments. If he's on his game he'll be fine.
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If he's on his game he'll be fine.

Mad hatter,

I agree with that.  Not sure if Nishikori is playing as well now as last year. He started 2015 looking average.  I do not think of Stan as a force anywhere. His mind just is not there.  Rafa is similar. How he lost to Verdasco when his opponent fell apart in the second set i have yet to find out. I went to bed at that point because I thought it all over!  My worry is Berdych who until last time out seemed to induce poor play from Andy. He might stumble and not recover before then? He has looked shaky in his matches.
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Mad hatter,

I agree with that.  Not sure if Nishikori is playing as well now as last year. He started 2015 looking average.  I do not think of Stan as a force anywhere. His mind just is not there.  Rafa is similar. How he lost to Verdasco when his opponent fell apart in the second set i have yet to find out. I went to bed at that point because I thought it all over!  My worry is Berdych who until last time out seemed to induce poor play from Andy. He might stumble and not recover before then? He has looked shaky in his matches.

Nishikori had a good round 2 win but his opponent is a shadow of his former self. He plays Troicki next, while Raonic plays Chardy. I expect Raonic to be untroubled, but like you I'm not so sure about Nishikori - I think he is having a slight struggle to become accustomed to being in the top 5 rankings and to face the greater expectations that come with that ranking. But the courts here suit him better than those at IW, and I expect him to deal with Troicki fairly straightforwardly. Neither Raonic or Nishikori faced break points in their first matches.

The Nadal match last night was an odd one. I watched it all, and Verdasco came out a little flustered at the beginning of the second set. He'd had some problems re-wrapping his grip and then taping the wrap down, and ended up having to grab another racquet from his bag when the umpire indicated he was out of time. Then his shoes broke - one of the eyelets (if you can call them that when they are essentially just a small strip of folded fabric) on one of his shoes broke, and with it the laces on that shoe.

Verdasco got distracted by all this and his level dropped. Nadal began playing a bit better, but he couldn't consistently hit anything with any depth. Verdasco would normally fade away after a set like the second but he showed great tenacity early in the third and his level rose again. Nadal is lacking in confidence at the moment. His second serve is shaky, his ground strokes are coming up very short indeed. He's playing safe, and then when he goes to attack he is making errors a lot of the time.
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Nadal began playing a bit better, but he couldn't consistently hit anything with any depth...Nadal is lacking in confidence at the moment. His second serve is shaky, his ground strokes are coming up very short indeed. He's playing safe, and then when he goes to attack he is making errors a lot of the time.

Nadal isn't really a natural player, is he? We see this every time he comes back from a lengthy injury break - short groundshots, weak serving, poor decision-making on key points. He's very much a manufactured player who has to work hard and often to keep his game in top shape.
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ATL,

Thank you for the update on Kei. He was so poor in Memphis and shaky in other tournaments that your theory sounds good.

Nadal looked poor compared to the usual Rafa.

Did you have a view on Berdy?  I just have not seen him play but noted some poor starts and periods behind in the scores when checking them. I am working this week so not likely to watch too much!
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Nishikori has a decent record against Djokovic, from memory. Notable victories in Basel and New York. He would have to be on his game but I wouldn't totally rule it out.

Truth be told, I'm very wary of Murray's draw, even without Nadal and Wawrinka. It's really opened up now and he really should be making the final, but Anderson and Berdych are two players who have caused him problems in the past and we all know how common it seems to be these days for him to just not turn up in the latter stages of tournaments. If he's on his game he'll be fine.

If Andy does make the final, he'll have a healthy 900-point lead over Rafa, although it might not be Nadal in 4th place.
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If Andy does make the final, he'll have a healthy 900-point lead over Rafa, although it might not be Nadal in 4th place.

Rafa looks in trouble of keeping in the top group with more to defend on clay? Need to check what he has to defend but from memory I thought it significant.

I do not rule out him still being top four come O2 though. He seems to rise up over and over again! I can see Andy and Novak being the top two in 2016 but I am rather biased?
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Rafa looks in trouble of keeping in the top group with more to defend on clay? Need to check what he has to defend but from memory I thought it significant.

I do not rule out him still being top four come O2 though. He seems to rise up over and over again! I can see Andy and Novak being the top two in 2016 but I am rather biased?

From memory I think Nadal has 1870 before the FO:

Monte Carlo - QF 180
Barcelona - 4th round or QF 90?
Madrid - Win 1000
Rome - Final 600

The one I am not sure about is Barcelona. I know he didn't reach the final, but can't recall what round he lost in. Obviously if he can get himself back on track quickly on clay then MC and Barcelona this year are opportunities for him.
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Barcelona was a QF loss to Almagro ^.
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Barcelona was a QF loss to Almagro ^.

Thanks. So that is 90 from Barcelona.
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I don't see Rafa winning RG this year. Just have a feeling. Maybe the Joker.
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ATL,  Those points to defend for Rafa are significant. If he falters then he could drop below 4500 points and have 3 or 4 players able to go ahead.  Perhaps a jump for Davide who can play well on the clay although having two semis to defend he is unlikely to press far up the list!?
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Rafa has loads of points to defend- and then after Wimbledon none to defend so  any fall could be temporary.
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Rafa has loads of points to defend- and then after Wimbledon none to defend so  any fall could be temporary.

WW

If you look at it as a whole season Andy has just 900 points left to defend in 1000 ATP events whereas Rafa has over 2000. That excludes just Miami the only one played in 2015.  Nadal had five bad events if that is only making the Quarters or less whereas Andy had seven.  

If Andy continues with current intent to play well in the other ATP events not just slams he should make a large nett gain on Rafa.

My own view is that Andy will gain far more than Rafa in 2015. They both had time out, and time recovering but playing, in 2014 but the opportunity is there for him this year to keep in top four or higher quite easily. If Rafa is lower ranked he will have to go through the prospect of harder games from quarters and if he does not make it through them it gets harder and harder for him. Ask Andy how difficult it is to start an event ranked 5-8 as he did often in 2014. I think he has learnt that lesson?
[ Last edit by marathonarthur March 31, 2015, 06:59 AM ] IP Logged
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