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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2016?
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Murray's Ranking

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ATL,

I have started to think that we just have to expect not much consistency with Andy in his statements and performances. His ranking position therefore possibly will be mercurial. I think that best word even if not possibly what others would use.

I am hoping that he gets a good way in the Madrid tournament and follows it up with a good week in Rome more for him to gain a little self-belief than his ranking to still be 2. The latter would be a bonus as after RG ranked 2 would be good for what comes after.

Thank you for all the calculations completed to show how things may well develop.
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MA, I think we agreed much earlier in the year that there was the potential for quite a lot of change in the 2-5 rankings this year.

Given the draw in Madrid I think the best case scenario - aside from defending his title - is for Andy to reach at least the SF, with Federer going no further than the QF.

If that happened, then in Rome a similar scenario would need to happen, or both players losing at the same stage, would put Andy at 2 at the end of Rome.

Stan and Rafa could potentially factor in the race for the second seed at RG, but I think Stan would need to reach finals in both and Rafa would need to win both, and at the same time Andy and Federer would need to play two bad tournaments.
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ATL,

Draw to me is quite neutral. It is a should reach the semi if he plays up to his best but i am not holding my breath. Does he play first round on Wednesday?
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Joe
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Apologies if already covered. I've seen a report somewhere which says that unless Andy retains his Madrid title this week then Federer will take the number 2 ranking. Is this true and does it still hold now that Federer is out of Madrid?
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Apologies if already covered. I've seen a report somewhere which says that unless Andy retains his Madrid title this week then Federer will take the number 2 ranking. Is this true and does it still hold now that Federer is out of Madrid?

This was ATL's assessment of a a week or so ago.

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"Dropping the Munich/Istanbul and Madrid 2015 points their ranking points will be:

Fed: 7525

Andy: 6925

I think the Rome seeding is the same as the Madrid seeding, so this is relevant for rankings and RG seeding. Federer is not confirmed to play Rome yet, but with 600 points from 2015 I'd be surprised if he doesn't play there".

Federer not playing Madrid does not change this as Andy has dropped points. He does need to go deep to take advantage of Federer not playing.  He needs whatever he can get from both Madrid and Rome. No doubt ATL, whose calculations are usually immaculate will update soon.

On the liveatp rankings site Andy currently has 6935. (I assume that is 10 for getting a bye in the first round)?  I assume that the comment of same seedings for Rome is correct but if Andy were to make the final in Madrid I think that he would stay number 2 next week and then for RG also.

PS added an extra important line!
[ Last edit by marathonarthur May 03, 2016, 09:26 AM ] IP Logged
dex
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Don't panic! Federer has pulled out of the Madrid Masters due to a back injury. Old father time is finally catching up with him, he has been so lucky throughout his career. But that is at least two injuries this year already for him! This will help Andy stay at number two but Andy still has to get to the final to keep in front. He doesn't have to win it.
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if Andy were to make the final in Madrid I think that he would stay number 2 next week and then for RG also.

This will help Andy stay at number two but Andy still has to get to the final to keep in front. He doesn't have to win it.

Sorry MA and Dex, but Andy does have to win Madrid to still be ranked 2 on 9th May. Getting to the final would mean Federer and Andy are tied on points and Federer would go to 2. See my post on page 662 of this thread, April 16, 2016, 05:38 PM, it explains things.

He will be seeded 2 at Rome because the seedings are based on the rankings on 2nd May.

Once Madrid is over I will work out the scenarios for what needs to happen in Rome for Andy to be 2 at RG.
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Sorry MA and Dex, but Andy does have to win Madrid to still be ranked 2 on 9th May. Getting to the final would mean Federer and Andy are tied on points and Federer would go to 2. See my post on page 662 of this thread, April 16, 2016, 05:38 PM, it explains things.

He will be seeded 2 at Rome because the seedings are based on the rankings on 2nd May.

Once Madrid is over I will work out the scenarios for what needs to happen in Rome for Andy to be 2 at RG.

ATL,

Sorry I missed that one!  I somehow knew there was a complication hence suggesting that an expert like you needed to confirm it!

Seems strange to do Rome ranking on 2nd May but it suits Andy so I am not complaining.
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Seems strange to do Rome ranking on 2nd May but it suits Andy so I am not complaining.

They have to as the rankings are only released every Monday and they can't wait until next Monday to do the draw because the main draw matches starts on Sunday.
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Matthew,

I had it in my mind that there was a week between but I am wrong again!  Not doing well today?
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