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Question: What will andys ranking be @ end 2014?
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Murray's Ranking

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teejay1
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6480 on: September 03, 2013, 11:13 AM »
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Andy has a bigger lead over Ferrer in the Year to Date/Race rankings than he does over the regular, annual one, and and even bigger lead over Berdych, so I'm not sure where this Year End panic is coming from.



Thank you Sparkle, that is exactly my point. There is no way in hell that Andy will finish the year at 5, just no way.

Forget the race points, look at the world rankings. There is a huge gap between Andy and Ferrer, and a laughable gap between Andy and Berdych. Berdych is not overtaking Andy any time soon, or Ferrer for that matter, and that is coming from someone who likes Ferrer.

The assumption from some is that Andy will do nothing for the rest of the year. When has that ever happened? He could feasibly win the USO again and defend his points from last year. He could feasibly do well in Asia. He generally does. He could gain points in Asia this year. I woudn't put winning Shanghai again past him. Even if you left out Paris, which I can't see the top players chasing particularly hard (Federer might, he needs the points) there is the WTF. Andy could feasibly win that.

The negativity is based on a lot of ifs and buts. If Andy doesn't do this, if Andy doesn't do that. It doesn't take into account that others have points to defend as well, including Ferrer and Berdych. There is also the point about never mind what Andy might not do, what if he actually does?

My own money is on Andy finishing the year back at no.2. Just a feeling, but I have a feeling he will.
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benniebone
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6481 on: September 03, 2013, 11:19 AM »
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If Nadal beats Ferrer then Andy is safe at third place isn't he? Ferrer never beats Nadal!


 Yes that's what I'm hoping At the risk of being boring ranking does matter No point getting bothered  when Andy gets to play in a second rate court if you don't bother re ranking Appearance money is also a factor
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benniebone
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6482 on: September 03, 2013, 11:31 AM »
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I don't look at the race points but today I looked at the ATP rankings and they are forecasting problems for Murray Its not being pessimistic its being realistic Tennis is a really tough game  To stay at the top is very difficult
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boogers
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6483 on: September 03, 2013, 11:42 AM »
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Yes that's what I'm hoping At the risk of being boring ranking does matter No point getting bothered  when Andy gets to play in a second rate court if you don't bother re ranking Appearance money is also a factor

There's a more significant reason why ranking matters, which the "it's cool, Murray only tries at slams and tanks the rest of the season" clown brigade don't seem to ever think about: being seeded higher eases your path to the final.

Look at this years US Open for example. To win, Murray is probably going to have to beat Berdych, Novak and Rafa. Not going to happen. If he does happen to get past Berdych (a 50/50 proposition at best) then he'll kill himself playing Novak.

Meanwhile Rafa plays Robredo, and then probably Ferrer. He's also in the top half, so plays earlier. More   rest, easier opponents. He's a lock in for the final, and a favourite to take the title.

If Murray hadn't played like a complete spanner in Cincy and Montreal he'd have Rafas draw instead.
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angiebabez
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6484 on: September 03, 2013, 11:46 AM »
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There's a more significant reason why ranking matters, which the "it's cool, Murray only tries at slams and tanks the rest of the season" clown brigade don't seem to ever think about: being seeded higher eases your path to the final.

Look at this years US Open for example. To win, Murray is probably going to have to beat Berdych, Novak and Rafa. Not going to happen. If he does happen to get past Berdych (a 50/50 proposition at best) then he'll kill himself playing Novak.

Meanwhile Rafa plays Robredo, and then probably Ferrer. He's also in the top half, so plays earlier. More   rest, easier opponents. He's a lock in for the final, and a favourite to take the title.

If Murray hadn't played like a complete spanner in Cincy and Montreal he'd have Rafas draw instead.

I hate to say it but.......fair points!
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teejay1
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6485 on: September 03, 2013, 11:53 AM »
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I don't look at the race points but today I looked at the ATP rankings and they are forecasting problems for Murray Its not being pessimistic its being realistic Tennis is a really tough game  To stay at the top is very difficult

I think Andy's doing pretty well at it though, and with all due respect it is being pessimistic to the point of total panic.

Ferrer is not winning the US Open. He won't beat Nadal in the semi's, he just won't. Andy has a far better chance of beating Berdych in the quarter finals, but should the worst happen then Djokovic will wipe the floor with Berdych in the semi's. Berdych always, always rolls over to Djokovic.

If Ferrer does happen to perform a miracle akin to walking on water, and Andy gets through Berdych and Djokovic in the quarters and semi's, and I wouldn't dismiss his chances of doing exactly that, they may as well give Andy the trophy after the semi. Ferrer has only ever beaten Andy once on hard and Andy was injured at the time.

Actually I fancy a Murray/Ferrer final. It won't happen, but it is a nice thought.

There is still a sizeable amount of the year to go. Andy will be fine.
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Caz
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6486 on: September 03, 2013, 12:05 PM »
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There's a more significant reason why ranking matters, which the "it's cool, Murray only tries at slams and tanks the rest of the season" clown brigade don't seem to ever think about: being seeded higher eases your path to the final.

Look at this years US Open for example. To win, Murray is probably going to have to beat Berdych, Novak and Rafa. Not going to happen. If he does happen to get past Berdych (a 50/50 proposition at best) then he'll kill himself playing Novak.

Meanwhile Rafa plays Robredo, and then probably Ferrer. He's also in the top half, so plays earlier. More   rest, easier opponents. He's a lock in for the final, and a favourite to take the title.

If Murray hadn't played like a complete spanner in Cincy and Montreal he'd have Rafas draw instead.
This crossed my mind too!
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blueberryhill
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6487 on: September 03, 2013, 12:14 PM »
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Oh no! Boogers has a point shocking
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teejay1
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6488 on: September 03, 2013, 12:16 PM »
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I hate to play devil's advocate, but someone clearly has to. How do we know Andy would have had Nadal's draw? The draw is supposed to be random, how do we know, had Andy stayed at no.2, it would have come out exactly the same. The answer is that we don't, so throwing remarks around about how he played at Montreal and Cincy (a slump was always likely after winning Wimbledon anyway) might look clever, but it's a bit pointless.

Thus far Andy's draw hasn't been bad. Potentially the latter stages are tough, but let's just see what happens.

Andy didn't lose when he did in Montreal and Cincy deliberately, so there's no point in talking like he did.
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Cmongoose
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6489 on: September 03, 2013, 12:22 PM »
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Oh no! Boogers has a point shocking

Indeed, however what is overlooked is that he could still have had Rafa in his draw just at the semi stage not the final so all that would have occurred was a reversal of the present situation.
But then Novak might have got him so...
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Fiverings
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6490 on: September 03, 2013, 01:20 PM »
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I hate to play devil's advocate, but someone clearly has to. How do we know Andy would have had Nadal's draw? The draw is supposed to be random, how do we know, had Andy stayed at no.2, it would have come out exactly the same. The answer is that we don't, so throwing remarks around about how he played at Montreal and Cincy (a slump was always likely after winning Wimbledon anyway) might look clever, but it's a bit pointless.

Thus far Andy's draw hasn't been bad. Potentially the latter stages are tough, but let's just see what happens.

Andy didn't lose when he did in Montreal and Cincy deliberately, so there's no point in talking like he did.
  Excellent point. Andy is where he is - could be better, could be worse.
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bhill_mfc
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6491 on: September 03, 2013, 01:43 PM »
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There's a more significant reason why ranking matters, which the "it's cool, Murray only tries at slams and tanks the rest of the season" clown brigade don't seem to ever think about: being seeded higher eases your path to the final.

Look at this years US Open for example. To win, Murray is probably going to have to beat Berdych, Novak and Rafa. Not going to happen. If he does happen to get past Berdych (a 50/50 proposition at best) then he'll kill himself playing Novak.

Meanwhile Rafa plays Robredo, and then probably Ferrer. He's also in the top half, so plays earlier. More   rest, easier opponents. He's a lock in for the final, and a favourite to take the title.

If Murray hadn't played like a complete spanner in Cincy and Montreal he'd have Rafas draw instead.

The one hole I'd pick in this is that Rafa is the 2nd seed so hence is in the bottom half of the draw.

You are correct in most of what you say IMHO, although I feel Rafa may have too easy a draw to the final and not really being pushed? Kohlschreiber took a set off Rafa, yes, but it wasn't like anyone ever thought Kohli would actually win.
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bhill_mfc
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6492 on: September 03, 2013, 01:48 PM »
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Incidentally, I'm pretty confident that Rafa's level will dip post US Open. Rafa has never had the strongest results in the Asian swing/European indoor stretch....and it's been noticeable over the past few years that when a player wins pretty much everything in the main season, he usually experiences a bit of burnout late in the year (ie Djokovic post US Open in 2011).

I expect the battle for No. 1 to be a lot, lot closer this season IF Nadal doesn't win the US Open. If he does win, it's a battle between Djoker and Murray for No. 2.

I'd also like to see Berdych reach No. 4. I like Ferrer but for Andy's sake I'd much prefer to have Ferrer in the QF than Berdych.
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rob92
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6493 on: September 03, 2013, 03:17 PM »
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There's a more significant reason why ranking matters, which the "it's cool, Murray only tries at slams and tanks the rest of the season" clown brigade don't seem to ever think about: being seeded higher eases your path to the final.

Look at this years US Open for example. To win, Murray is probably going to have to beat Berdych, Novak and Rafa. Not going to happen. If he does happen to get past Berdych (a 50/50 proposition at best) then he'll kill himself playing Novak.

Meanwhile Rafa plays Robredo, and then probably Ferrer. He's also in the top half, so plays earlier. More   rest, easier opponents. He's a lock in for the final, and a favourite to take the title.

If Murray hadn't played like a complete spanner in Cincy and Montreal he'd have Rafas draw instead.
This is Grand Slam situation. This is different. For all we know we could have Wawrinka instead.
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Tessie
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6494 on: September 03, 2013, 04:00 PM »
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All speculation.  All thats been talked about over the last week and a half is the Fed/Rafa quarter final, and look what happened.  Lets do what Andy does and deal with one match at a time and worry about the rankings afterwards.
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