Home Search Calendar Help Login Register
Did you miss your activation email?
MurraysWorld Discussions  >  Murray Community  >  Andy Talk  >  Murray's Ranking 0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Poll
Question: What will andys ranking be @ end 2014?
1
2
3
4
5
Worse

Pages: 1 ... 432 433 434 [435] 436 437 438 ... 592 Go Down Reply
Author

Murray's Ranking

 (Read 306434 times)
The Gnome
ATP Level
***
Posts: 2,674

Gender: Male
Location: Winchester, England


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6510 on: September 04, 2013, 07:49 PM »
Reply

I'm intrigued to know who you think would push him in to 5th place. Ferrer could overtake, though it wouldn't make much difference as 3 and 4 are much the same from seeding point of view. But the others are way behind.

It's all garbage, 1, 2, 3 or 4 makes no difference, for some reason, some people seem to think being number 2 means you will play number 4 in your semi which just isn't true, the only 2 players guaranteed to be in the opposite half of each other are the 1 and 2 seeds, Rafa could have had Andy as his semi final opponent.

The number 1 seed in this case Novak has to potentially beat Andy then Rafa to win, so what benefit does having a higher seeding have? clearly none
IP Logged
Elena
Seed
****
Posts: 3,875

Location: London

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6511 on: September 04, 2013, 07:52 PM »
Reply

Well, he looks pretty little safe now that Del Potro and Berdych lost early...

But Delpo was out already when you made that post, and Berdy was 2,000+ points behind, so  "good chance" seemed a bit sensationalist. Anyway, Andy's no 3 looking safe at the moment though maybe Ferrer will turn it around.
IP Logged
teejay1
Top Seed
*****
Posts: 6,031



Courage doesn't always roar - but wins Wimbledon

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6512 on: September 04, 2013, 08:19 PM »
Reply

But Delpo was out already when you made that post, and Berdy was 2,000+ points behind, so  "good chance" seemed a bit sensationalist. Anyway, Andy's no 3 looking safe at the moment though maybe Ferrer will turn it around.

Boogers was being sensationalist. That was the whole point of his remark. Ferrer is categorically not overtaking Andy in the rankings.
IP Logged
boogers
Veteran
*
Posts: 9,840

Gender: Male
Location: Sussex


Touched by his noodly appendage

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6513 on: September 04, 2013, 08:21 PM »
Reply

It's all garbage, 1, 2, 3 or 4 makes no difference

Nonsense. It matters very much when you actually look at the rankings. Right now we have the big 3 (Novak, Rafa and Andy), and a spare wheel (Ferrer).

Assuming everyone plays to their seeding, the top two have a 50% chance of playing Ferrer in the semi finals. Whee, free pass (unless you're Andy and it's on clay)

The third and fourth seeds will usually have to play Novak or Rafa. So the difference between being 2nd and 3rd is actually pretty damn big.
IP Logged
mickeypops
Challenger Level
**
Posts: 1,207

Gender: Male

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6514 on: September 04, 2013, 08:33 PM »
Reply

Nonsense. It matters very much when you actually look at the rankings. Right now we have the big 3 (Novak, Rafa and Andy), and a spare wheel (Ferrer).

Assuming everyone plays to their seeding, the top two have a 50% chance of playing Ferrer in the semi finals. Whee, free pass (unless you're Andy and it's on clay)

The third and fourth seeds will usually have to play Novak or Rafa. So the difference between being 2nd and 3rd is actually pretty damn big.

Boogers is quite right.  As I said in an earlier post, it makes all the difference now that the "big four" is becoming a "big three" plus a "spare wheel", as it is a little unkindly put.

The number 1 and 2  seeds have a 50/50 chance of getting the "spare wheel" in the semi and an easier path to the final.

The number 3 of the "big three" will always have to face the number 1 or 2 in the semis, then the other in the final should he get there.

Always assuming of course that the tournaments go with the seedings....

IP Logged
The Gnome
ATP Level
***
Posts: 2,674

Gender: Male
Location: Winchester, England


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6515 on: September 04, 2013, 09:01 PM »
Reply

So basically what you're saying is that it's best to be number 2 because you might get "lucky" and have Ferrer as your semi? is that the same luck as Novak had with now potentially having to play Andy and Rafa back to back to win this USO? and he's ranked 1st.

Rafa at number 2 got lucky with this draw it doesn't mean he will get lucky in his next one, what would you be saying if Andy was number 2 in this tournament and then got Rafa as his semi? would you then be crying out that he should have stayed at number 3?

Come on, it's down to pure luck nothing else, i seem to remember Andy being seeded 2nd at this year's Wimbledon, and Rafa/Fed were his potential Semi opponents, you can't legislate for luck in a draw.
IP Logged
Fiverings
ATP Level
***
Posts: 2,477

Gender: Male
Location: Ayrshire


Andy Murray - Tennis Legend

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6516 on: September 04, 2013, 10:07 PM »
Reply

So basically what you're saying is that it's best to be number 2 because you might get "lucky" and have Ferrer as your semi? is that the same luck as Novak had with now potentially having to play Andy and Rafa back to back to win this USO? and he's ranked 1st.

Rafa at number 2 got lucky with this draw it doesn't mean he will get lucky in his next one, what would you be saying if Andy was number 2 in this tournament and then got Rafa as his semi? would you then be crying out that he should have stayed at number 3?

Come on, it's down to pure luck nothing else, i seem to remember Andy being seeded 2nd at this year's Wimbledon, and Rafa/Fed were his potential Semi opponents, you can't legislate for luck in a draw.
   thumb up  most sensible post I've read on this fairy dance so far.
IP Logged
drchef
Challenger Level
**
Posts: 916

Gender: Male
Location: Duns


"Corey, Trevor.....Smokes, let's go!"

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6517 on: September 04, 2013, 10:11 PM »
Reply


The number 3 of the "big three" will always have to face the number 1 or 2 in the semis


Another way to look at it would be that number one or two will always have to face number 3!
IP Logged
Ruthie
Veteran
******
Posts: 8,626

Gender: Female
Location: East Midlands


Touch the sky - and touch it he did.

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6518 on: September 04, 2013, 10:17 PM »
Reply

and now Ferrer has gone out, he'll lose points and with Paris to defend I wouldn't be surprised if he falls outside top 4 before end of year.   
Just glad Andy doesn't fixate on his ranking like some on MW do!
IP Logged
*Sparkle*
Challenger Level
**
Posts: 1,401


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6519 on: September 04, 2013, 11:04 PM »
Reply

So basically what you're saying is that it's best to be number 2 because you might get "lucky" and have Ferrer as your semi? is that the same luck as Novak had with now potentially having to play Andy and Rafa back to back to win this USO? and he's ranked 1st.

Rafa at number 2 got lucky with this draw it doesn't mean he will get lucky in his next one, what would you be saying if Andy was number 2 in this tournament and then got Rafa as his semi? would you then be crying out that he should have stayed at number 3?

Come on, it's down to pure luck nothing else, i seem to remember Andy being seeded 2nd at this year's Wimbledon, and Rafa/Fed were his potential Semi opponents, you can't legislate for luck in a draw.
In a balanced draw, it makes little difference, but when there is a strong top 3, there is a long-term advantage to being in the top 2.   If you are #3, every tournament, you face a top 2 player in the semis, and a top 2 player in the finals.  If you are #1 or #2, you face a top 3 player in the semis half of the time, and a top 2 player for the final every time.  At least, that's how it works in theory.  It is possible that the #3 player will end up in the same person's half each time, but over time, it should even out.  Over time, it will definitely be less for the #1 and #2 players than for the #3 player.

Obviously, all of that assumes that you will reach the semis in the first place, or would capitalise on the "easy" semi-finalist, and that everyone else is reaching their appropriate places in the draw.  It's not an advantage you'd notice in every tournament, but over a number of months, you should get enough easier draws that you'd make an extra couple of finals more easily, which might make it easier to win the trophy, or at least collect extra points.

However, none of that changes the fact that it's not worth worrying about.  Worrying about it won't change things.  In fact, I'd say worrying about it would distract you from the job at hand.

For the time-being, Ferrer cannot over-take Andy.  He'll be on 3850 points come Monday (or whenever they update it, given it's a Monday final), while Andy would be on at least 7060, even if he doesn't progress any further in the tournament.  I think there may have been some confusion looking at the live scores when Ferrer had played an extra round compared with Andy.  No-one else is slightly close to catching him.
IP Logged
Elena
Seed
****
Posts: 3,875

Location: London

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6520 on: September 04, 2013, 11:30 PM »
Reply

Agree with most of your post Sparkle - but...

For the time-being, Ferrer cannot over-take Andy.  He'll be on 3850 points come Monday (or whenever they update it, given it's a Monday final), while Andy would be on at least 7060, even if he doesn't progress any further in the tournament.  I think there may have been some confusion looking at the live scores when Ferrer had played an extra round compared with Andy.  No-one else is slightly close to catching him.

Ferrer will be at 6850 points - just a slip I'm sure.

If he, but not Andy, had gone through to the SFs, he would have overtaken. But he didn't get through. Hope Andy does.
IP Logged
The Gnome
ATP Level
***
Posts: 2,674

Gender: Male
Location: Winchester, England


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6521 on: September 04, 2013, 11:39 PM »
Reply

In a balanced draw, it makes little difference, but when there is a strong top 3, there is a long-term advantage to being in the top 2.   If you are #3, every tournament, you face a top 2 player in the semis, and a top 2 player in the finals.  If you are #1 or #2, you face a top 3 player in the semis half of the time, and a top 2 player for the final every time.  At least, that's how it works in theory.  It is possible that the #3 player will end up in the same person's half each time, but over time, it should even out.  Over time, it will definitely be less for the #1 and #2 players than for the #3 player.

Obviously, all of that assumes that you will reach the semis in the first place, or would capitalise on the "easy" semi-finalist, and that everyone else is reaching their appropriate places in the draw.  It's not an advantage you'd notice in every tournament, but over a number of months, you should get enough easier draws that you'd make an extra couple of finals more easily, which might make it easier to win the trophy, or at least collect extra points.

However, none of that changes the fact that it's not worth worrying about.  Worrying about it won't change things.  In fact, I'd say worrying about it would distract you from the job at hand.

For the time-being, Ferrer cannot over-take Andy.  He'll be on 3850 points come Monday (or whenever they update it, given it's a Monday final), while Andy would be on at least 7060, even if he doesn't progress any further in the tournament.  I think there may have been some confusion looking at the live scores when Ferrer had played an extra round compared with Andy.  No-one else is slightly close to catching him.

I'm aware of the argument being put forward Masaka Smile but to me it only holds weight if the number 2 seed was guaranteed to play the number 4 in each tournament which it is not.

It's just as likely that Andy would have to play Rafa & Novak back to back in slams seeded 2nd as it is if he was seeded 3rd, you can't guarantee anything due to the luck factor, so wishing a better ranking for him is not worth stressing about like some seem to do.

IP Logged
bhill_mfc
Satellite Level
**
Posts: 275

Gender: Male
Location: Scotland


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6522 on: September 05, 2013, 08:40 AM »
Reply

Even if Andy dropped to No. 4 I'm sure he would regain it quite quickly before year end. He's about 800 points ahead of Ferrer in 2013 points (before match v Wawrinka). If he beats Wawrinka, that will be 1150 approx.

Andy should be targeting No.2 post US Open. No.1 is only in reach if he goes on a massive unbeaten stretch, and Rafa gains hardly any points.
IP Logged
benniebone
Challenger Level
**
Posts: 1,314


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6523 on: September 05, 2013, 11:27 AM »
Reply

Thank heavens Ferrer has been beaten and if Andy  can pull it off tonight, rankings will be safe. I started this debate and say thankyou to all the contributors who obviously know a lot more about this subject than I do.
IP Logged
Aran
Satellite Level
**
Posts: 238


Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #6524 on: September 05, 2013, 12:46 PM »
Reply

It's just as likely that Andy would have to play Rafa & Novak back to back in slams seeded 2nd as it is if he was seeded 3rd

No, really, it's not.

If he's seeded 3rd (and everyone gets the results their seedings predict) then he faces Nadal and Djokovic back to back every single time.

If he's seeded 2nd, he gets Ferrer in the semis 50% of the time. 

In the current situation, being seeded 2nd is a massive advantage.  In fact, the difference between 2 and 3 right now is much more significant than the difference between 1 and 2, who have the same chance of facing Murray.
IP Logged
Pages: 1 ... 432 433 434 [435] 436 437 438 ... 592 Go Up Reply 
« previous next »