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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2015?
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Murray's Ranking

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I agree. I tend to think Andy overdoes the fitness. But when he was younger he lost matches because he was unfit and I think being so fit gives him confidence. Nole and Rafa are pushing these levels up all the time too.
Was JMDP's loss yesterday partly because he was knackered?
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 Ranking points with Miami 2012 removed.

 1      Novak Djokovic   SRB   12280   
 2      Roger Federer   SUI   8670   
 3      Andy Murray   GBR   7750   
 4      David Ferrer   ESP   6450   +1   
 5      Rafael Nadal   ESP   6385   -1   

Nadal returned to no 4 this week, but Ferrer has fewer points to defend so overtakes him again after Miami, even if he goes out 1st round.
Andy would have to win to get to no 2.
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Thanks Elena. RP's are not my forte.

Seems like poor Ferrer works like a dog, and Rafa comes back and steals the bone.

Andy is so tantalisingly close to Fed.
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All this talk about ranking points is giving me a headache. Went to the ATP website only to see that Rafa is making up for lost ground so quickly.
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All this talk about ranking points is giving me a headache. Went to the ATP website only to see that Rafa is making up for lost ground so quickly.

He can't make up any more ground until Madrid now though and has tons to defend before and after during the cc season. There is no need to worry, until at least Wimbledon.
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I am sure he will get there, as to how many matches he plays is up to him with advice from Lendl. What's the rush he has the rest of the year. Have you not heard "Patience is a Virtue".
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I agree. I tend to think Andy overdoes the fitness. But when he was younger he lost matches because he was unfit and I think being so fit gives him confidence. Nole and Rafa are pushing these levels up all the time too.
Was JMDP's loss yesterday partly because he was knackered?
I wouldn't go as far as to say Delpo was completely knackered but he was definitely showing signs of wilting a little by the 3rd set - not that it stopped him fighting to the bitter end.  Had he been more rested I'm pretty sure, given the closeness of the score, that he could have beaten Rafa.  The will was certainly there, and that's half the battle.
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@Aileen
Only "partly" I thought Rafa's match tactics were brilliant. During the course of the match he worked out how to beat JMDP. Apparently his forehand was actually  bigger than JMDP's shocking
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Obviously the number 2 ranking is what everyone is talking about this week, but it's interesting to see just why Djokovic is so far ahead of Murray in the rankings. Their record in slams over the last year is very similar - W, F, F, SF for Djokovic and W, F, F, QF for Murray. Indeed that difference is only worth an extra 360 points in the rankings for Djokovic. However even if Murray had won the Wimbledon and Australian Open finals he'd still be well behind in the rankings (which seems ridiculous as he'd have three slams and Djokovic/Federer wouldn't have any).

On the other hand Murray is giving up 3,430 points in the rankings with his performance in Masters (before Miami). It's really Masters that are the difference between being number 1 and number 2/3 at this point in time (plus the Tour Finals). That's why I think winning here would be so important - theoretically he'll have to outperform Djokovic in the hard court Masters to make up for the clay ones if he wants to be number 1.
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Let's  concentrate on Andy reaching no 2 ranking before worrying about  his chances of becoming no1 .Even if he  beats Ferrer tomorrow he will only be no 2 by 80 points  and could be back at no3 very quickly I'm satisfied seeing back playing competitve tennis in the Masters again after his poor showing at these last year
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While I agree that most of the time it's better not to get too carried away getting bogged down in the route to #1, this is the rankings thread.  It seems reasonable to expect we might go into a big more detail and think longer term when you come in here.

Obviously the number 2 ranking is what everyone is talking about this week, but it's interesting to see just why Djokovic is so far ahead of Murray in the rankings. Their record in slams over the last year is very similar - W, F, F, SF for Djokovic and W, F, F, QF for Murray. Indeed that difference is only worth an extra 360 points in the rankings for Djokovic. However even if Murray had won the Wimbledon and Australian Open finals he'd still be well behind in the rankings (which seems ridiculous as he'd have three slams and Djokovic/Federer wouldn't have any).

On the other hand Murray is giving up 3,430 points in the rankings with his performance in Masters (before Miami). It's really Masters that are the difference between being number 1 and number 2/3 at this point in time (plus the Tour Finals). That's why I think winning here would be so important - theoretically he'll have to outperform Djokovic in the hard court Masters to make up for the clay ones if he wants to be number 1.

Definitely.  When you think about it, 9000 points are available across the Masters Series, compared with 8000 for the slams.  There is less jeopardy or glory if you take an early exit or win any single event, but across the year it adds up.

Leaving at the quarters in IW was disappointing, but at least it was better than last year, and over the course of IW and Miami, Andy's gained on Djokovic (and Federer) and has earned at least (180+600) = 780, compared with Djokovic's (360+90)= 450.  That's going from (10+600) = 610 and (360+1000) = 1360 respectively.  You can do the sums endlessly, and unless Andy wins tomorrow, his genuine gains over Djokovic at these two events isn't considerable.

More important possibly, is that Djokovic was looking fairly invincible for the last two years, which didn't just earn him loads of points, it will have given him an aura that made some lower ranked players give up before they started.  If those players start to think there are chinks in his armour, a few more might find them.  Just as there are a lot of points Andy can gain in the coming months, Novak could easily drop quite a lot too.

IMO, Djokovic gained a lot of advantage from being top 2 while Rafa was off.  There were many draws where he got the easier route to the final, and therefore points as a result.  With Rafa back, or Andy at #2, that difference will even up.
[ Last edit by *Sparkle* March 30, 2013, 03:33 PM ] IP Logged
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As Andy has said he is not bothered about ranking. The only benefit he would gain is in the draw of tournaments. It would make his passage easier through to the latter stages. I think this preoccupation about his ranking bring no benefit apart from an easier draw.
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#2 is very significant right now, because there is a stand-out #1. Being on the opposite side of the draw to Djokovic is quite damn significant.
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Let's  concentrate on Andy reaching no 2 ranking before worrying about  his chances of becoming no1 .Even if he  beats Ferrer tomorrow he will only be no 2 by 80 points  and could be back at no3 very quickly I'm satisfied seeing back playing competitve tennis in the Masters again after his poor showing at these last year
Andy has only 90 points to defend in Monte Carlo and Fed isn't playing (but has no points to defend), so the way I understand it is that if Andy can reach at least the SF he'll still be clear of Fed.
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Hope Rafa ups his ranking. Imagine meeting  him  in the quarters shocking
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