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Murray's Ranking

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Katie
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Andy Murray - US Open and Wimbledon champion! :)

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5955 on: June 04, 2013, 08:28 PM »
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Tsonga's win today means that he is now ranked above Del Potro, at number 7. If he wins his SF, then he'll overtake Berdych to be number 6.

I'm not sure what to think of Andy being seeded 2 at Wimbledon - I don't fancy another SF meeting with Rafa (unless the outcome is different this time), but drawing Federer in his current form would be a good draw.
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blueberryhill
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5956 on: June 04, 2013, 08:28 PM »
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@TMH and Teejay.
Just another punter on tenisx who worked it out according to the formula.
Que sera.
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backhandslice
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5957 on: June 04, 2013, 08:29 PM »
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 So Fed and Murray both lost 360 points.  Just one of them didn't play.  Lol.   I'm sure Andy will be seeded number 2 at Wimbledon.
Tbh though does the ranking really matter I mean I just want Andy back to full fitness playing his best tennis.
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Fiverings
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Andy Murray - Tennis Legend

Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5958 on: June 04, 2013, 09:00 PM »
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I wouldn't be sorry if this was true,but I don't know.We've thought that before and been proved wrong.I've given up trying to predict when he'll retire.
  Odds on retiral after Wimbledon, anyone?
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TheMadHatter
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5959 on: June 04, 2013, 09:10 PM »
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@TMH and Teejay.
Just another punter on tenisx who worked it out according to the formula.
Que sera.
Could you quote or link to their calculations? I'd like to see where mine vary.
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silver lining
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5960 on: June 04, 2013, 09:34 PM »
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(ATP points + grass court points from the last 12 months + 75 percent of grass court points from the 12 months before that)

Worst-case scenario (Murray doesn't play/loses in Queens R1; Federer wins Halle)

Murray: 8310 + (1200+750) + ((250+720)*0.75) = 8310 + 1950 + 727.5 = 10,987.5
Federer: 7640 + (150+2000+450) + (360*0.75) = 7640 + 2600 + 270 = 10,510

Of course this assumes the Olympic points are included. You'd think they would be, but I guess we can't know for sure. Even without then, Murray would have 10,237 to Federer's 10,060 - so I guess it doesn't matter.

IF this formula is correct and I've calculated it correctly (and not missed any grass court points, or used the wrong amount of points) then Murray will be 2nd seed at Wimbledon.

Whether that is good or bad though, who knows. It means he will avoid Djokovic but could face Nadal or Ferrer instead.

(If anyone wants to double check those figures please do. Elena, Silver Lining?)

Only their best grass results from before Wimbledon 2012 are counted. In this case that means 75% of both their Wimbledon 2011 points (SF for Andy, QF for Federer).

Murray: 10,800
Federer: 10,360 (10,710, if he wins Halle)

If anyone has questions, it's explained pretty well here. This doesn't change anything though, Andy will still be seeded 2nd, comfortably. Thanks TMH! Smile
[ Last edit by silver lining June 05, 2013, 02:52 AM ] IP Logged
Mackem
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5961 on: June 04, 2013, 10:05 PM »
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Tsonga's win today means that he is now ranked above Del Potro, at number 7. If he wins his SF, then he'll overtake Berdych to be number 6.

I'm not sure what to think of Andy being seeded 2 at Wimbledon - I don't fancy another SF meeting with Rafa (unless the outcome is different this time), but drawing Federer in his current form would be a good draw.
If Andy plays Rafa at Wimby this year it means he's in the SF's which also means he's fit and on form.  Andy will destroy him!
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TheMadHatter
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5962 on: June 04, 2013, 10:07 PM »
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Only their best grass results from before Wimbledon 2012 are counted. In this case that means 75% of both their Wimbledon 2011 points (SF for Andy, QF for Federer).

Murray: 10,800
Federer: 10,360 (10,610, if he wins Halle)

If anyone has questions, it's explained pretty well here. This doesn't change anything though, Andy will still be seeded 2nd, comfortably. Thanks TMH! Smile
I just noticed that even though I stated those calculations were worst-case (including the possibility of Federer winning Halle), I forgot to include possible Halle points anyway.

Thanks for the correction, hadn't read about only the best points being included. And forgot to take into account that when the seeding is done, Halle/Queens will have been after the 12 month cut-off. There's always one thing. This is why I never ace maths tests.

Adjusted calculations (to clarify how SL got those figures, if anyone cares about the working out):

As it stands:

Murray: 8310 + (1200+750) + (720*0.75) = 8310 + 1950 + 540 = 10,800
Federer: 7640 + (2000+450) + (360*0.75) = 7640 + 2450 + 270 = 10,360

Worst-case scenario (if Federer were to win Halle) - Halle points included twice (in ATP points AND points in the last 12 months)?

Federer: 7740 + (2000+450+250) + (360*0.75) = 7740 + 2700 + 270 = 10,710

Either way, there isn't a scenario in which Murray isn't 2nd seed.
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Elena
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5963 on: June 04, 2013, 10:20 PM »
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Thanks silver lining and MH. My calculations were wrong before because of the cut off date, a forgotten tournament, and the article I quoted said nothing about "best" grass result! So I'll keep out of this...
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silver lining
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5964 on: June 04, 2013, 10:25 PM »
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Yeah, Halle would be included twice, see I didn't take that into account either.
[ Last edit by silver lining June 04, 2013, 10:33 PM ] IP Logged
teejay1
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5965 on: June 04, 2013, 10:51 PM »
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I wouldn't be sorry if this was true,but I don't know.We've thought that before and been proved wrong.I've given up trying to predict when he'll retire.

Dani I know what you mean. I've thought the end was nigh before and been proved wrong. Something just feels different this time. It does feel like Federer is on the way out. No titles this year, no major finals, and he is surrounded by players who appear to be improving.

In addition to that is the fitness issue. If Federer is pushed now he seems to struggle to recover. To my mind he is a step slower out there now. Andy showed that at the Olympics and the AO. JWT showed it today.

We probably shouldn't get carried away. Federer is more than good enough to beat the majority on the tour. However, more players know that if you push him enough you can get through him. I do think he is losing a lot of his aura.

It seems to me that it isn't going to get easier for Federer. I don't believe for a second that he doesn't play to win the titles. My own feeling is that it is going to get harder for him to stay in that elite group. I think if he falls out of the top 5 in the next year or so, he will call it quits.
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TheMadHatter
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5966 on: June 05, 2013, 01:24 AM »
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Yeah, Halle would be included twice, see I didn't take that into account either.
Thanks silver lining and MH. My calculations were wrong before because of the cut off date, a forgotten tournament, and the article I quoted said nothing about "best" grass result! So I'll keep out of this...
It's incredibly complicated. I'm amazed the organisers get it spot on. Not the calculations because they can just do that with a spreadsheet obviously, but remembering and inputting all the right data. The specifics seem to vary from article to article.

But every way we've worked out so far see Andy as #2 seed. Hopefully he'll go deep at Queens and/or Federer won't defend his finalist points - either of which should surely guarantee it in-case of any other missed specifics.
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blueberryhill
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5967 on: June 05, 2013, 06:29 AM »
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@TMH
Didn't give'em.
Anyway, yours look rock solid, and am mightily reassured clap
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backhandslice
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5968 on: June 07, 2013, 07:46 PM »
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In reaching RG final, Ferrer will be just 400 pts behind Fed for No. 3 ranking. If he beats Nadal he'll be just 300 behind Murray for No. 2.

Also  unless Federer defends his Wimbledon title he's very likely to be out of the Top-4 in a month.

 
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teejay1
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Re: Murray's Ranking « Reply #5969 on: June 07, 2013, 11:35 PM »
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In reaching RG final, Ferrer will be just 400 pts behind Fed for No. 3 ranking. If he beats Nadal he'll be just 300 behind Murray for No. 2.

Also  unless Federer defends his Wimbledon title he's very likely to be out of the Top-4 in a month.

 


I don't see Ferrer beating Nadal, so I don't think Andy needs to lose sleep over that.

Fed's not winning Wimbles, I'd bet my life on that. I just don't see it. Hopefully he'll find himself on Andy's side of the draw, in which case Andy can beat him in the semi's, if Fed gets that far. It'll cause quite a stir when Fed falls out of the top four. It's bound to happen at some point.
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