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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2015?
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Murray's Ranking

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Great but its Potro I worry about
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I thoroughly agree I think a player  unable to compete because of injury should simply have their points frozen until they return

That would really mess up the rankings though if every player who was injured didn't lose any points. I think it's fine the way it is - players accept that injuries are part of the game and that losing ranking points goes along with that.

As a top player, Andy's one of the lucky ones. Players lower down the rankings can easily drop ten, twenty or more places through being out injured which makes a huge difference to their draws. With Andy, I think the worst he'll drop to will be number 5 (and that'll probably only happen if he doesn't defend Brisbane). Even then, he's so good that he'll get back up to number 3 very quickly. Plus think of all the ranking points he can gain next year. Smile
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 Obviously there would be a time limit on such a scheme but as the points cover a whole year why should a player lose points because of injury, as if he'd played and been defeated  He can't gain any extra unless he resumes playing
  Just think where Andy will be if he does'nt play in the Aussie Open
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Obviously there would be a time limit on such a scheme but as the points cover a whole year why should a player lose points because of injury, as if he'd played and been defeated  He can't gain any extra unless he resumes playing
  Just think where Andy will be if he does'nt play in the Aussie Open

But the other side to this is that you can't guarantee that the player would have reached the same round if he had played. It wouldn't be feasible for a player to hold onto, say, slam winner points, without playing.

If he doesn't play the Aussie Open, it'll depend on how the other players do but I don't think he'd fall much lower than 5 or 6.
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Providing he stays in the top 10 I think he will regain ground very quickly. I do think we all have to accept that he is not a Nadal (thank goodness), and it might take him a while to regain his full form. However providing he is fit it will happen. He hasn't won the Gold and two Slams for nothing. Plus all those other titles, (remind me again how many titles a fully fit Berdych has claimed this year).

I am a bit concerned that folks are already starting to put pressure on with the talk and panic about rankings To use one of the youngster's phrases we all need to chill a bit. Whatever will happen will happen.
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Providing he stays in the top 10 I think he will regain ground very quickly. I do think we all have to accept that he is not a Nadal (thank goodness), and it might take him a while to regain his full form. However providing he is fit it will happen. He hasn't won the Gold and two Slams for nothing. Plus all those other titles, (remind me again how many titles a fully fit Berdych has claimed this year).

I am a bit concerned that folks are already starting to put pressure on with the talk and panic about rankings To use one of the youngster's phrases we all need to chill a bit. Whatever will happen will happen.

I agree Masaka. What's important is that when he returns he's fully fit and not playing in pain any more. A dip in the rankings is far better than watching him underperform because of injury. He's better than Berdych, Del Potro, Ferrer etc. - any ground lost to them will only be temporary.
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I looking forward to Andy making a mockery of the ranking system.
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Andy has actually only played 13 tournaments this year. The 17 includes 0 point penalties for not playing Roland Garros, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Washington. He'll probably get 0 pointers for Basel and Paris too.

I was confused earlier this year as I couldn't see how Nadal had played as many tournaments as it said when he had missed 7 months - then I realised they count any compulsory ones (4 x Slams, 8 x Masters, 4 x 500s) whether they were played or not. 



The important bit is that at the end of 2013 Andy is likely to be ranked 3 or 4 and that the Brisbane points are not significant for the AO rankings. If he can play that slam and do reasonably well he will be in a good position for 2014. Even if not I expect him to have plans developing for events in February. Acapulco is on the list already. He will need tournament practice before the busy period due from March. In a comparison for the year Andy has lost just 8 times and only Nadal has lost less (currently six times), Ferrer has lost 19 times I think so no comparison in who is best player of the two? Ferrer is nowhere near the ability of the top three. He is a workhorse who clocks up a lot of his points in easy tournaments.
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Providing he stays in the top 10 I think he will regain ground very quickly. I do think we all have to accept that he is not a Nadal (thank goodness), and it might take him a while to regain his full form. However providing he is fit it will happen. He hasn't won the Gold and two Slams for nothing. Plus all those other titles, (remind me again how many titles a fully fit Berdych has claimed this year).

I am a bit concerned that folks are already starting to put pressure on with the talk and panic about rankings To use one of the youngster's phrases we all need to chill a bit. Whatever will happen will happen.

I've been saying for a while we shouldn't be getting into a state about the rankings while Andy is out, so I agree with this.

There's just no point in worrying about it. Andy is out, so he can't defend or add to his points, simple as that. I'm quite sure he would have realised that when he decided to have the surgery, but at the end of the day the surgery must have been necessary. I also think he's wise to not come back until he is fit, even if I selfishly wish it will be for the start of next year. I'm getting withdrawals!

I don't quite buy the argument some make about Ferrer being a workhorse. Only a certain number of his 'easy' tournaments would count towards his ranking and he has done consistently well in the slams. The interesting thing with him, at least I think, will be Paris, which I just don't see him defending this year.

What I do agree with is that overall Andy, Djokovic and Nadal are all in a different class to Ferrer. Then again they are in a different class to most players, so Ferrer isn't alone there.

As for Andy, as I said, I think he's wise to say he will only come back when he is fit. Watching him struggle with that back injury at times this year has been painful, but I think the counter to it has been the success he's had, i.e. very few losses really, winning Miami and doing the Queen's Wimbledon double in particular, at least for me, and helping GB back into the world group in DC. He's done all of that with the injury, so my view is that when he's right, whether he comes back in full flow straight away, or if it takes a while, he'll be fine and his ranking will recover. Talent doesn't just up and disappear like that, so in my view Andy will be fine.
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What I do agree with is that overall Andy, Djokovic and Nadal are all in a different class to Ferrer. Then again they are in a different class to most players, so Ferrer isn't alone there.

As for Andy, as I said, I think he's wise to say he will only come back when he is fit. Watching him struggle with that back injury at times this year has been painful, but I think the counter to it has been the success he's had, i.e. very few losses really, winning Miami and doing the Queen's Wimbledon double in particular, at least for me, and helping GB back into the world group in DC. He's done all of that with the injury, so my view is that when he's right, whether he comes back in full flow straight away, or if it takes a while, he'll be fine and his ranking will recover. Talent doesn't just up and disappear like that, so in my view Andy will be fine.

Well put.

Most of us are not trying to pressure him before he is ready but so want him back we are looking forward to how that comeback will materialise. Personally I would like him to take his time as he would still be up high in the rankings without the Aussie Open. I am sure that if he targeted the Davis Cup tie at the end of January and some events like Rotterdam or Delray Beach to go with the Acapulco visit in February he could have good preparation for Indian Wells and 2014. That is provided the medical people give him the all clear and he can do the work needed for him to play at the standard he forces on himself! I know how hard it is to do sport when the expectations are higher than the capabilities.
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I think Del Potro will joint the big four next season as he is back to his best. He will be the junior member of course. Rafa; Andy; Nole and Del Potro.
Federer will have a job stying in the top 10. He has won one 250 tourney this year nothing else.
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Del Potro lacks consistency. I put him with Berdych as the next best players who are at a similar level. I think top group have no junior options. Federer is past it man now. My prediction for him to be about 8th in the end of year rankings seems likely. He just cannot do those super shots when he arrives at the ball too late! He has lost quite a lot of speed around the court.
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I think Del Potro will joint the big four next season as he is back to his best. He will be the junior member of course. Rafa; Andy; Nole and Del Potro.
Federer will have a job stying in the top 10. He has won one 250 tourney this year nothing else.

I think Ferrer will also have a rapid decline next year. He is 32 isn't he?
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http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/21/sport/tennis/tennis-andy-murray/index.html?hpt=ite_t1
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Andy could possibly end the year above Ferrer in the rankings anyway .
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