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Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor?

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BigNose
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Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « on: June 14, 2011, 09:58 PM »
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In 3 recent big games Andy's conversion rate has been woeful.

Against Troiki in the winner takes all set Andy had so many break points but missed most of them. Troiki on the other hand had 1 or 2 breakpoints and took 1 of them. Andy eventually scraped that set 7-5 but Troiki

Against Nadal Andy took 3 out of 18. Thats a huge number of break points against Nadal on clay.

Against Jo yesterday Andy took 1 out of 11.


I think Andy waits for an error from his opponent at break point. He seems much more aggressive in getting to the stage to win the break but then backs off.

 Anyone else agree? He needs to change this approach because IMO its hirting him badly.


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boogers
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #1 on: June 14, 2011, 10:00 PM »
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I agree fully. It was especially noticeable in the RG Semi, where he would thrash winners past The Pig to bring up break point, then sit 3m behind the baseline on break point. Weird, and annoying.
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lashurst
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #2 on: June 14, 2011, 11:00 PM »
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Right. He doesnt seem to go for it in BP's, the stats speak for themselves. he loses games, sets and ultimately matches because of this, when he is otherwise playing well.

So, if its obvious to us, it must be also be obvious to his coach/mentors. So he must be working on it, I would think.


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strider
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #3 on: June 15, 2011, 12:10 AM »
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I remember having a quick look at some stats before the start of the French, and Andy was sitting second in terms of break-point conversion percentage, can't remember who he was behind.

Since then, though, I'd imagine he's fell down the list, as he's had quite a few matches where he's let a lot slip.
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Allan
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #4 on: June 15, 2011, 01:16 AM »
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I remember having a quick look at some stats before the start of the French, and Andy was sitting second in terms of break-point conversion percentage, can't remember who he was behind.

Since then, though, I'd imagine he's fell down the list, as he's had quite a few matches where he's let a lot slip.
He's now tied 8th with Giraldo and Garcia-Lopez. They're behind Djokovic, Simon, Rafa, Delpo, Malisse and Tsonga.
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Aileen
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #5 on: June 15, 2011, 04:29 AM »
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Right. He doesnt seem to go for it in BP's, the stats speak for themselves. he loses games, sets and ultimately matches because of this, when he is otherwise playing well.

So, if its obvious to us, it must be also be obvious to his coach/mentors. So he must be working on it, I would think.
I would hope so, given that it sounds like a mental issue - lack of killer instinct maybe? - and from an interview in a recent FT Weekend Magazine Murray is well aware that his mental game is one thing he really needs to improve on, especially his concentration, to which end he's been trying to learn from boxers (presumably through his new friend David Haye) on how to remain focussed during matches, stating that "boxers can get themselves hurt if they're not totally switched on for the whole fight."
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blueberryhill
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #6 on: June 15, 2011, 06:32 AM »
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We've all noticed this, I guess, especially at slam semis and finals. Rafa plays the break points, for and against, astonishingly well. I think this is why he is so tough to beat.
Fed doesn't play break points well either, especially against Rafa Wink
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Lurking
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #7 on: June 15, 2011, 06:10 PM »
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RG SF :

Federer : 4/25
Djokovic : 3/10

USO F :

Nadal : 5/25
Djokovic : 3/4

USO SF :

Murray : 4/20
Nadal : 2/3

All 3 won.

Sometimes your opponents hit 131 mph second serves and they go in and you miss the only chance you get, providing you stay focused and don't screw up then who cares? He still won 2 of those matches.

Clay also has it's own idiosyncrasies, players are presented with the more chances they should because of the weaknesses of serves and thus players are presented with opportunities where they don't have the weapons to close it out. That is why Murray comes from behind so many times against guys like Chela and Bolelli and why none of them can ever close out the situations they are presented with, Nadal is just Murray's version of the same dynamic.

Murray hardly ever loses a match because of his bp conversion of clay, if his break point conversion is poor it's poor because he's not winning that many points on return anyway. There's little wrong with him mentally no matter how much people want to obsess about it.
[ Last edit by Lurking June 15, 2011, 06:15 PM ] IP Logged
what
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #8 on: June 15, 2011, 06:28 PM »
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We have to be honest, Nada and Tsonga played great tennis on BP against them.
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Clydey
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #9 on: June 16, 2011, 02:12 PM »
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Murray is number 1 in the category of points won against the first serve. So despite Djokovic's year, it is clear who the best pure returner is. If Murray's form had been more consistent, he would have probably opened up an even bigger gap, much like he did in 2009.
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lashurst
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #10 on: June 16, 2011, 02:46 PM »
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Murray is number 1 in the category of points won against the first serve. So despite Djokovic's year, it is clear who the best pure returner is. If Murray's form had been more consistent, he would have probably opened up an even bigger gap, much like he did in 2009.

Good posting!
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #11 on: June 16, 2011, 02:52 PM »
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He scored some cracking points off Roddick's first serve too! Thanks for the info Clydey!
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #12 on: June 18, 2011, 02:24 PM »
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We have to be honest, Nada and Tsonga played great tennis on BP against them.
Good point.  I'm sure Andy could do more to improve his BP conversion rate but having watched the match again on TV last night I noticed the BBC comms said that only one of the missed BP points against JWT was down to Andy; the rest were won by JWT with great serves/shots.
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #13 on: June 18, 2011, 04:10 PM »
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It is very straightforward really.  The server is statistically more likely to win the point than not, and combined with the fact that they will also life their level for that point gives you the result.

With Andy also he does tend to be very tentative, and against Nadal, if you look at some of the matches he lost to him, he missed a lot of break point chances.  There is no question that against the best Andy needs to play the big points better.  Generally he is with them all the way, but when one point either way would change the set, Andy unfortunately is usually not the victor,  Even if you go back to the first set against Nole in Melbourne Andy had chances.  The SF at the 02 v Nadal is a match Andy should have won, and the same goes for Rome v Nole which was even worse.  The margins from Andy winning a Slam are very small, but these points have a huge impact on the match.  That is why the improvement in his serve is so crucial.

I believe he will get there, I just hope it is two weeks tomorrow!!
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Caz
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Re: Why is Andy's break point conversion rate so poor? « Reply #14 on: June 18, 2011, 04:19 PM »
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Yes, I've noticed that Andy tends to play more 'defensive' when he has break point [depending on who he's playing] of course!
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