No, I agree with Angie, I think there's a high chance he'll be there in person for this. It's going to be a landslide result, and I really think he'll want to respond to his fans in person.
Not being there would be a big reason why he might not win! I have heard so many people say that they would not vote for someone who does not turn up. The SPOTY vote used to be outside the hours of the programme so then it made less difference. They knew who was going to win so made sure that they were there! Now it is all about what people see on the night so BBC really influence who wins! He leads polls because of not only his achievements but the coverage that he has been getting of late. So many are so pleased that he is such a good guy. Remember it was the same press that to an extent did not support him!
Being a competitor (feels like retired at present) I can see only three who would be worthy of this award that combine motivation, interest, ability and success (the complete sporting personality package) and one of those is absent from the short list. Others I know do not see it that way and just promote their sport's best person.
If you watch the dancing programme you will see that the public vote for who they like regardless of how they dance. They also vote for someone in the sport they support or in the soap they watch endlessly. Ethnic and gender issues are also a determinant on vote. This is not an intelligent vote. The same happens with SPOTY.
He should be there and his management should get him there for financial reasons alone. Imagine going to a tennis match in the future where the Murray fans outnumber the doubters because they like him and want him to win.
I hope he does because he is the best in GB this year and for that reason alone.