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Iran stumbling into war

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Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « on: February 19, 2012, 08:20 PM »
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Just curious... does anyone hear believe Iran should be allowed to develop nuclear weapons because other countries can?

Looks very likely now Israel will strike within months and I'm fully behind them. I know it's hypocrisy but I will take that over a country with deeply Islamic leaders, who have sponsored terrorism, having nuclear weapons. It's unsafe for all of us.

The reason it's tolerable for some countries to have nuclear weapons is because they tend to have leaders who have the basic sense that destroying another country is not worth it if yours is destroyed in the process. When you start talking about conservative Islamic leaders with the same potential power, you have to consider whether they will have the same rationale when believing God is on their side.


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[ Last edit by Mark February 20, 2012, 04:09 PM ] IP Logged
tennis_girl
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #1 on: February 20, 2012, 03:04 AM »
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Looks very likely now Isreal will strike within months and I'm fully behind them. I know it's hypocrisy but I will take that over a country with deeply Islamic leaders, who have sponsored terrorism, having nuclear weapons. It's unsafe for all of us.



First of all, it's "Israel". Second of all, the Israelis are terrorists too. They just don't threaten the UK, so you're "fully behind them". When they kill thousands of Palestinians, that's somehow ok. Neither country should be in a position to have nuclear weapons.
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Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #2 on: February 20, 2012, 09:35 AM »
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I said I was fully behind Israel striking Iran, not fully behind them in general. I will be the first to admit many nuclear armed countries are far from perfect but hypocrisy is a trivial discomfort when you're talking about the survival of the human race.

So the point I was making was I'd always take hypocrisy over having irrational conservative Islamic leaders in control of nuclear weapons. Regardless of what you think of Israel, they have leaders that are rational enough for mutual annihilation to act as a sufficient deterrent. This is the case for all nuclear armed countries, including North Korea, but I fear it won't be the case for Iran.

I'm interested to know whether anyone here believes Iran should be allowed to make nuclear weapons?

PS. I see you spotted my typo, well done.
[ Last edit by Mark February 20, 2012, 09:58 AM ] IP Logged
theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #3 on: February 20, 2012, 01:20 PM »
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I disagree somewhat.
The Iranian government is an appalling example of militaristic theocratic fascism.
But it still behaves quite rationally, compare it to N Korea and there is no comparison.
As you say, there's this thing called MAD ie mutually assured destruction and if a crude nuclear bomb from Iran exploded in Israel, destruction is what they would have.
They want nuclear power and the option of a bomb as it will make them very difficult to dislodge.
But it would result in a news nuclear arms race in the middle east as the Sunnis would go all out for a nuclear deterrent.
I'm more worried about Saudi Arabia than Iran as many of Al Quaeda have been Saudi's. There hasnt been one Iranian suicide bomber ever.
I would say the new sanctions are really starting to bite now, theyre getting desperate. Lets see what that brings. Attacking Iran will only delay the inevitable anyway and shall result in some very serious disruption to the world oil lanes & could tip us back into another recession.
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Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #4 on: February 20, 2012, 01:52 PM »
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Interesting comments, I was hoping for this sort of contribution Smile

So you think North Korea are less safe with the bomb than Iran? I know in the context of the world they are a bit loony but they are not a religious country, they only care about themselves. I see the leaders of Iran as Islamic first, politicians second. And it's because of this I can imagine a scenario where if Iran was facing a losing war with Israel, they would use the nuke believing their own destruction makes them an entire population of martyrs.

I'm not fond of Saudi Arabia at all but I don't see them as a threat due to their strong links with the west. The fact is, they might save us from another recession assuming their claims of offsetting any lost oil are realistic.
[ Last edit by Mark February 20, 2012, 04:11 PM ] IP Logged
theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #5 on: February 20, 2012, 02:16 PM »
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mmm A hellish scenario but highly unlikely. They are not in the least suicidal.
They like to get others to do their fighting for them.
Remember it was a secular government in Iraq that attacked Iran causing the dealth of millions many of them by the use of such nicieties as mustard gas.
Its not in the Iranian psych to do such a thing, besides the real power of Iran is now with the revolutionary guard not the mullahs.
Iran would not willingly get into a tussle with Isreal/USA It would push their country over the edge.
Iran could get desparate and maybe are beginning to, but they do not want to die for anything, even Allah.
Our best bet is to Induce another green revolution but we need the bloody Chinese and Russians on board, who rather tellingly seem to love just about every dictatorship out there.
[ Last edit by theycanbillme February 20, 2012, 02:33 PM ] IP Logged
Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #6 on: February 20, 2012, 02:29 PM »
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I really hope you're right about Iran's rationality but I remain fearful.

On the matter of whether they would be willing to go to war, well it looks like that is going to be tested very soon. Latest news is the CIA believe Israel are planning a strike in a matter of weeks. The question is whether they will feel the need to get approval from the US or not. Either way, the US will support them one way or another.

I share your anger at China and Russia on such issues. Their lack of action over Syria makes my blood boil. Russia and Iran don't even like each other at all, it's just a reluctant business arrangement, and of course that will always come first.
[ Last edit by Mark February 20, 2012, 06:44 PM ] IP Logged
theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #7 on: February 20, 2012, 02:40 PM »
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Russia still thinks like a totalitarian state & China is one so its not just for business that they prop these scumbags up.
I am always perplexed about Americas financial and political support of Israel also however.
If the American people knew how much money was sent in `aid`to Israel, they would not be impressed. There literally hasnt been a bad word about Israel said in congress for DECADES.
Still they are a useful regional ally. It would be wise for America to let the Israeli's handle this one on their own however.
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theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #8 on: February 20, 2012, 02:44 PM »
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But the best the west can hope for in Iran is to delay & regime change.
A nuclear Iran is inevitable.
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Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #9 on: February 20, 2012, 03:01 PM »
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When I was referring to business arrangements, was specifically talking about Russia and Iran. It's my understanding that Russia would prefer them not to exist.

I'm really interested to see how the US will act on an Israel strike. Do Israel have the resources to handle a war on their own? I see them trying to drag in some allies.

Why do you think it's inevitable that Iran will have a nuclear weapon?
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tennis_girl
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #10 on: February 20, 2012, 03:11 PM »
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I will be the first to admit many nuclear armed countries are far from perfect but hypocrisy is a trivial discomfort when you're talking about the survival of the human race.

The US is the *only* country to have used nuclear weapons on an "enemy". The fact remains. I do not believe for a second that America or any of its allies should be in a position to dictate morality or who should have what.

Iran gaining nuclear weapons is not "inevitable". However, should Israel decide to actually try and stop Iran, I highly doubt that the US would be backing them up. There's already a disgust with the Iraq conflict and troops in Afghanistan. I don't think Obama would risk a) re-election, b) more troops in the Middle East.

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tennis_girl
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #11 on: February 20, 2012, 03:15 PM »
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When I was referring to business arrangements, was specifically talking about Russia and Iran. It's my understanding that Russia would prefer them not to exist.

No. While Russia and Iran have not always been on the same side, Russia and Iran both hate the West, and want them out of Central Asia. Russia has yet to distance itself from Iran even though it's sandwiched between its now dependence on the West and its actual motives.
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theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #12 on: February 20, 2012, 03:22 PM »
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Because they are already at the enrichment stage. They almost have the capability. Once the genie is out of the bottle thats it. They will seek to use it as a bargaining tool. When you throw your toys out of the pram, its best to have the biggest ones possible. Just ask the North Koreans. I serioulsy doubt they will ever even think about actually using it. Suicide is never an option.
Isreal has by far the best (US funded) military in the area. Oh and 150 nuclear warheads to boot.
The Iranians will be lucky to have 3 crude nuclear devices 4 or 5 years from now.
Still to truly restrict Irans nuclear ambitions you are talking about taking out about 10 different installations. And they may have more underground facilities that the west is unaware of.
It can slow things down but I doubt they can be totally stopped.
If we have more time then perhaps a revolution can take place. But the new government will still want to be nuclearised.
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Mark
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #13 on: February 20, 2012, 03:43 PM »
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The US is the *only* country to have used nuclear weapons on an "enemy". The fact remains. I do not believe for a second that America or any of its allies should be in a position to dictate morality or who should have what.
I agree but I'm glad that they will with Iran.

However, should Israel decide to actually try and stop Iran, I highly doubt that the US would be backing them up.
They certainly won't want to but I believe they will voice their support for the sake of the alliance. Military backing on the other hand, maybe not.

No.
Yes. I know they have the same enemy but that doesn't change that they also are enemies of each other deep down when you get past their business arrangements. Don't forget last year when Russia backed sanctions against Iran and then later refused to complete an air defence deal that had been in the works for years. That really pissed Iran off.
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theycanbillme
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Iran stumbling into war « Reply #14 on: February 20, 2012, 03:51 PM »
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One other thing.
The Ruling elites of Iran are fragmenting. Further sanctions shall push them further to the brink (which explains the regimes need for nuclear power to show their own people that they can still deliver) and hopefully expedite the disintergration.
However if Israel attacks i fear this will bring all of Iran together in a way that would not have been pssible before and give the ruling elites a new lease of life.
Its a tricky situation, but as Israel feels it is facing an existential threat it probably will ignore this possibility.
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