Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender: 
Location: London
|
One other thing.
The Ruling elites of Iran are fragmenting. Further sanctions shall push them further to the brink (which explains the regimes need for nuclear power to show their own people that they can still deliver) and hopefully expedite the disintergration.
However if Israel attacks i fear this will bring all of Iran together in a way that would not have been pssible before and give the ruling elites a new lease of life.
Very good point, so it's a win win for them. Glad we've been able to talk about this because now I can create a thread dedicated to the topic which I think is deserved. (I've stolen the thread title from the Guardian) |
|
|
|
[ Last edit by Mark February 20, 2012, 04:06 PM ]
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
theycanbillme
ATP Level
Posts: 2,001
Gender:
Location: London
|
I expect more comments on this in the months to come Mark.
Unfortunately, in my view.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Sir Panda
|
You still got money invested in oil, Mark?
Just realised you would have to follow all this geopolitical stuff in order to safeguard your portfolios.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
You still got money invested in oil, Mark?
Yeah, all of it.  Just realised you would have to follow all this geopolitical stuff in order to safeguard your portfolios.
The big question that I'm unsure of is if Israel strike, will a potential market crash bring down the non-Middle Eastern oil stocks with them or will they go the opposite direction due to oil being valued higher. I'm slightly inclined to go with the latter. |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Sir Panda
|
If production slows down, particularly in the Middle East, the price I would imagine would shoot up, way up.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
I take little comfort from logic when it comes to the stock market but yeah that makes sense.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
top_spin
Murraymaniac
Posts: 22,307
Gender: 
Location: UK
|
Which part of the world is your money invested in? All this could majorly benefit Russian oil. |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
Which part of the world is your money invested in? All this could majorly benefit Russian oil. Mainly the Falklands as I believe a new oil province is being born much like the North Sea but also have some in Africa. Not looked at Russian small-mid cap oil companies much but yeah, would assume they'd have a good time. Oh doesn't this conversation seem so dirty  What a ****. |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
Strong words from the Israeli PM... Israel has waited for diplomacy to work, we've waited for sanctions to work. None of us can afford to wait much longer.
As prime minister of Israel I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation.
The Jewish state will not allow those who seek our destruction the means to achieve that goal. A nuclear armed Iran must be stopped. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17268478 |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Joe
Top Seed
Posts: 5,435
Gender:
Location: London
Boo hoo hoooooooo :'(
|
Strong words from the Israeli PM... Israel has waited for diplomacy to work, we've waited for sanctions to work. None of us can afford to wait much longer.
As prime minister of Israel I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation.
The Jewish state will not allow those who seek our destruction the means to achieve that goal. A nuclear armed Iran must be stopped. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17268478Yep, just been reading about this in the Guardian (that pro-Israeli publication  ). I see that he invoked the Holocaust in his speech.  Good to see the Republican Senate leader openly advocating war as well.  This will not end well. |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
That speech certainly sounded like he was preparing everyone for war.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Joe
Top Seed
Posts: 5,435
Gender:
Location: London
Boo hoo hoooooooo :'(
|
That speech certainly sounded like he was preparing everyone for war.
Yep, with or without the approval of the US - but no doubt the US will get sucked in either way (and the UK by extension). If the Republicans get in in November, the US will of course be right there with the first assault. |
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
Mark
Murraymaniac
Posts: 52,161
Gender:
Location: London
|
Obama simply has to choose the less worse option - war or breaking an alliance. Either one is a risk to his election but looking at the Republicans, he's looking pretty comfortable.
I think the US will probably offer some limited military support but nothing major.
|
|
|
|
|
IP Logged
|
|
|
|
|
