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Question:  If the referendum were held now, how would you vote?
YES to independence
NO to independence
Don't know

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Scottish politics

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theycanbillme
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #645 on: October 26, 2012, 01:55 PM »
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Did you even read what you quoted? That was precisely my point. Geographic apportionment would favour Scotland, per-capita apportionment would favour the remaining UK. The reality is that a settlement will be reached somewhere between geographic apportionment and per-capita apportionment to help pay for the cost of secession

Why would that be the case?
Do you know more about this future event than everyone else does?
What do you mean by per capita apportionment in this context anyway?
Lets face it if Scotland were to leave the union we would have no say whatsoever on their wealth or economic decisions, at least not directly as it would be a sovereign nation. And I cannot imagine them giving up a share of their own land rights as part of any deal with the UK.
In any instance the cost of secession would be a burden on all of us, not just the Scots. And it would be up to them and us on how we would want to thrash out a deal. They have been paying taxes for the last 300 years I presume so I expect that we would have to have a final trade off and separation of any assets (yes per capita) in military and govenrnmental infrastructure for example rather than any side "owing" the other.

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Not that it matters as the remaining oil reserves are limited

I think it still matters entirely. Companies are investing hundreds of millions in the north sea right now, licenses are being drafted as we speak. I doubt they share your rather predictable pessimism about long term oil opportunities in the region.

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Again, missing the point. With dwindling oil revenues, a post-independence Scotland would have per-GDP deficit edging towards the 15% of GDP mark. Can you imagine the cuts and tax increases necessary to reduce that to even manageable levels?


Well they would have their oil revenue and i would be interested to finally see some non biaised non journalist based data on just how much spending takes place in Scotland compared to their tax revenue with and without their geographical share of North sea oil profits. I suspect given just how small the Scottish population is that they would be covered but i agree they would have to go for a much more business freindly less socialistic society to really have a chance.

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There's a further problem - with a huge deficit and a small population base, a post-independence Scotland would find it extremely hard to source any money at all on the bond market, let alone at favourable rates

Now that I have already said to an extent just a couple of posts back, but again we don't know how well Scotland will manage its money if independence actually took place. They might prove better at handling their economy than we clearly are. They will at least be able to set their own interest rates but i doubt they will be able to raise as much money on the markets as the rest of the UK will. Still do you honestly think its only the Scots  that are running a deficit right now? The huge deficit you are referring to is a British deficit. Every country in the west has a simply unsupportable overspend and we are getting close to the time, in the west as a whole, when the buck will have to finally stop.
Spain and Greece are not exceptions, this is how things will be if we all don't take a more realistic approach to government and finances.

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Now, offset that against the main message from the "Yes" vote: effortless Nordic style well-being in a socialist paradise. That's going to be funded how exactly?"  

Its only Norway that has this effortless socialistic paradise and that is the one with the oil. The other countries actually have to go out and sell other things to maintain their lifestyles, with their £5 beers and bludgeoning tax rates, they can keep their paradises as far as I'm concerned.
I'm not for Scotland going it alone, it will weaken all of us but this idea that an advanced highly developed country shall just go wither and die to me seems like alarmist bullsh*t.
Anyway as I have said I do not think it will happen.  
 
  
 
[ Last edit by theycanbillme October 26, 2012, 03:25 PM ] IP Logged
boogers
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #646 on: October 26, 2012, 02:00 PM »
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Can you please please please learn how to use the quote system?
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theycanbillme
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #647 on: October 26, 2012, 02:09 PM »
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Dont patronise me boogers. I can use the quote system but it would have taken too long. If it scrambles your brains then i'm sorry about that.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #648 on: October 26, 2012, 02:17 PM »
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And I cannot imagine them giving up a share of their own land rights as part of any deal with the UK....so I expect that we would have to have a trade off and separation of assets (yes per capita) rather than any side "owing" the other.

Yes, quite. Your first paragraph is at odds with your second.

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I think it still matters entirely. Companies are investing hundreds of millions in the north sea right now, licenses are being drafted as we speak. I doubt they share your rather predictable pessimism about long term oil opportunities in the region.

They absolutely do share my "pessimism" - it's an undeniable fact that oil reserves in the North Sea are running out. It figures prominently in the forecasting of the large oil companies. Each new play is smaller and far more expensive to extract.

It's a simple equation of a finite resource and geography; the plentiful, cheap, easy to extract oil is gone. What's left is more scattered and deeper, which makes it harder and more expensive to extract.

This graph here quite nicely illustrates just how large the decline is:



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Well they would have their oil revenue and i would be interested to finally see some non biaised non journalist based data on just how much spending takes place in Scotland compared to their tax revenue with and without their geographical share of North sea oil profits.

It's staggeringly hard to work out. The GERS report is a good effort, but excludes a number of very large items from the Scottish expenditure figure.

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I suspect given just how small the Scottish population is that they would be covered but i agree they would have to go for a much more business freindly less socialistic society to really have a chance.

You suspect wrong. Remember that Scotland has a large, geographically diverse population - which makes infrastructure and central services more expensive to provision and maintain.

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Still do you honestly think its only the Scots  that are running a deficit right now? The huge deficit you are referring to is a British deficit.

Irrelevant. There's a reason why the UK as a whole still has a triple A credit rating: size and diversity of economy being two of the major factors.

(As a an amusing side note, one of the reasons why the deficit is so high is the huge bailouts required to rescue the Scottish banks)

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this idea that an advanced highly devloped country shall just wither and die to be seems like alarmist bullsh*t.

I don't think anyone is making that claim. What is postulated is that post-independence, Scotland would have to make some huge economic and structural changes which would quite likely leave if far worse off than it is now.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #649 on: October 26, 2012, 02:18 PM »
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Dont patronise me boogers. I can use the quote system but it would have taken too long. If it scrambles your brains then i'm sorry about that.

lol sorry but that statement was really hilarious. Are you really sorry? :p

But God do I love your take on these matters. Very informative.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #650 on: October 26, 2012, 02:19 PM »
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Dont patronise me boogers. I can use the quote system but it would have taken too long. If it scrambles your brains then i'm sorry about that.

How does it take too long? Press "[" then type "quote" then press "]". Move cursor to the end of the bit of text you want to quote and type "[" then "/quote" then "]"

It'll make your posts far more readable.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #651 on: October 26, 2012, 02:36 PM »
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Had the Britsh not gotten involved, then they would have to have sorted out their differences together as it would have `meant to be`. And pakistan was a state of India, Scotland is a nation.
I don't know if i agree entirely that the politicians are a good example of Indian Muslims lack of influence. 3 Presidents have been Muslims since independence which is a reasonable number when taken into account that only 3 states have a high concentration of Muslims and less of 15% of the population overall.
Although you may have a better view "on the ground" as it were than I.
I think the main problem in india is corruption rather than religious intolerance.
But we digress.

To be honest with you, I am not at all as knowledgeable as you are on this subject - far from it in fact. I love history but I hate politics and I think they go hand in hand. I do have some first-hand experiences and that's all I base upon. I don't feel Muslims are in as liberal position as Hindus in India. As to corruption, I'd say that's the No. 1 problem for any third world country. Underneath corruption lies greed and the hunger for power and in countries like those, it's really easy to achieve both. As I see it, it essentially comes down to a few bad people who are clever than the most and they are the ones who typically rule the entire nation and their own desires almost always take top priority. If you go to Pakistan, you will see that 20% of its people are filthy rich and the rest are just basically living day to day and half of them are probably below poverty level.

I absolutely loath politics as I’ve mentioned already and that's why I almost never vote but I do pay my taxes, and I am always into charity work etc. I can say however that Obama is most likely to be re-elected again though with narrow margin and it will be because people probably feel he hasn’t had enough time to prove himself, so they will most probably give him another chance. I do have my doubts about Obama as a person and I don’t' at all feel he is what he is made out to be, but that's a subject of another discussion. And yes, we digress, so I will just take myself off the table.
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theycanbillme
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #652 on: October 26, 2012, 03:12 PM »
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author=boogers link=topic=23067.msg800399#msg800399 date=1351257479]
Yes, quite. Your first paragraph is at odds with your second

Not it is not, I am saying that they will have to take their relative or your word "per capita" share as we will of things such as government/ambassadorial residences and military assets that have been built up over the years, as well as their share of the deficit. Not a share in their natural resources.

I didn't say that oil revenue was inifnite and personally I hope we can all wean ourselves off of oil in the near future but again a nation with 10% of the population of the present one will probably be able to take more advantage of this limited resource. Simple math.

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It's staggeringly hard to work out. The GERS report is a good effort, but excludes a number of very large items from the Scottish expenditure figure

Which are & why out of interest? Apparently you know more than this report does. I doubt it is that difficult. A simple subtraction of taxation to expenditure would be a reasonable ball park

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You suspect wrong. Remember that Scotland has a large, geographically diverse population - which makes infrastructure and central services more expensive to provision and maintain

In your opinion, the Scottish population is not at all that big and how many people live in the highlands anyway for these services. Arent most of the Scottish population centered around Glasgow and Edinburgh?

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Irrelevant. There's a reason why the UK as a whole still has a triple A credit rating: size and diversity of economy being two of the major factors

No it is not irrelevant. I'm amazed at this sense of casualness you have about burgeoning deficits. How long do you think we can keep up with spending more than we bring in? There seems to be some kind of fanciful notion here that the UK is immune from losing its credit status and can borrow until the cows come home...Because its..large. We have already been threatened with a down grade of our credit rating and with good reason. America has actually been downgraded. Just beause its a large country with its own currency did not make it immune from reality. And us even less so.

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(As a an amusing side note, one of the reasons why the deficit is so high is the huge bailouts required to rescue the Scottish banks)

Well that I agree with and to me the banks should have been allowed to fail. It is highly immoral that we financed the bankers that tanked the economy. As a further amusing side note, Iceland, which had a hugely overleveraged and oversized banking system in relation to its population had to let its banks fail and has now been out of recession for nearly 2 years.

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I don't think anyone is making that claim. What is postulated is that post-independence, Scotland would have to make some huge economic and structural changes which would quite likely leave if far worse off than it is now.

I just don't agree with this for the reasons I have already given. However the survival and increasing prosperity of any nation cannot be ensured in the long term as securely as we would like to think it can and the sooner we all realise this the better.
[ Last edit by theycanbillme October 26, 2012, 03:39 PM ] IP Logged
theycanbillme
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #653 on: October 26, 2012, 03:23 PM »
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Can you please please please learn how to use the quote system?

There you go boogers I have done them all just for you  :p
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #654 on: October 26, 2012, 03:45 PM »
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Ah, use of the quote tags. Thank goodness!

I didn't say that oil revenue was inifnite and personally I hope we can all wean ourselves off of oil in the near future but again a nation with 10% of the population of the present one will probably be able to take more advantage of this limited resource. Simple math.

It is simple math, which is why it's so surprising that you reach the wrong conclusion.

Without oil revenues, in the last reporting period Scotland had a deficit of £18.6 billion. With a geographic apportionment of oil revenues (~90%), that drops to £10.7 billion. This demonstrates that Scotland is massively reliant on oil revenues.

As demonstrated many times already, oil is a limited, depleting and incredibly volatile resource.
 
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Which are & why out of interest? Apparently you know more than this report does. I doubt it is that difficult a simple subtraction of taxation to expenditure would be a reasonable ball park

Nothing is simple in economics - this isn't like balancing your cheque book. Handling investment and capital spending is very tricky.

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In your opinion, the Scottish population is not at all that big and how many people live in the highlands anyway for these services. Arent most of the Scottish population centered around Glasgow and Edinburgh?

That's precisely the point - the rural areas are still entitled to things like functioning highways, rubbish disposal and other amenities.

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No it is not irrelevant. I'm amazed at this sense of casualness you have about burgeoning deficits. How long do you think we can keep up with spending more than we bring in? There seems to be some kind of fanciful notion here that the UK is immune from losing its credit status and can borrow until the cows come home...Because its..large. We have already been threatened with a down grade of our credit rating and with good reason. America has actually been downgraded. Just beause its a large country with its own currency did not make it immune from reality. And us even less so.

Well that I agree with and to me the banks should have been allowed to fail. It is highly immoral that we financed the bankers that tanked the economy. As a further amusing side note, Iceland, which had a hugely overleveraged and oversized banking system in relation to its population had to let its banks fail and has now been out of recession for nearly 2 years.

This is a topic for another thread. Suffice to say that the verdict is still out on which of bailout or bust was the correct approach. I also don't think it's reasonable to look at the actions of one tiny (population c. 250k) country as being representative of what could or would happen to a much larger one.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #655 on: October 26, 2012, 03:59 PM »
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I am very torn by this as I'm married to an Englishman, so my children are 'half and hawf', and I have grandchildren too, but I would love to see Scotland become independant if that's what the people want. I think they'd make it work too! However, I think it would take a very long time before everything is sorted and I worry that the way the world is at the moment, it could leave 'all' of us more vulnerable for some time to come. Actually, I'm quite glad I don't have a vote!
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #656 on: October 26, 2012, 04:02 PM »
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Without oil revenues, in the last reporting period Scotland had a deficit of £18.6 billion. With a geographic apportionment of oil revenues (~90%), that drops to £10.7 billion. This demonstrates that Scotland is massively reliant on oil revenues..


But Boogers Britain, all of it, is heavily reliant on borrowing & shouldn't be. Scotlands problems are mirrored exactly by the rest of the UK, that is the (even) more important point that is glaringly obvious & easy to connect the dots with.
Okay I have looked at your responses on this and I think we have reached a dead end. You make a few good points but I don't agree with most of what you have said and the facts that you have produced are to further your position rather than have a proper objective debate, so lets just agree to disagree as you are pretty much totally emotionally invested in your position about this subject.
Okay?
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #657 on: October 26, 2012, 04:10 PM »
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There you go boogers I have done them all just for you  :p

You don't do anything for ME! :p
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theycanbillme
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #658 on: October 26, 2012, 04:17 PM »
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You don't do anything for ME! :p

I dont have have to that's why, you've got it all sorted out   :p :p
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #659 on: October 26, 2012, 04:56 PM »
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But Boogers Britain, all of it, is heavily reliant on borrowing & shouldn't be. Scotlands problems are mirrored exactly by the rest of the UK, that is the (even) more important point that is glaringly obvious & easy to connect the dots with.

No, Scotland's problems aren't "mirrored exactly". The UK's deficit has (mainly) explainable reasons and is in large part a direct result of the financial crisis. The deficit problems of a notional independent Scotland different in nature.

The problem here is that you're attempting to draw conclusions simply based on a cursory glance at the figures without understanding the underlying causes.

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Okay I have looked at your responses on this and I think we have reached a dead end. You make a few good points but I don't agree with most of what you have said and the facts that you have produced are to further your position rather than have a proper objective debate, so lets just agree to disagree as you are pretty much totally emotionally invested in your position about this subject.
Okay?

Frankly that's pretty insulting. All you've done so far is wave your hands a bit and make unsubstantiated statements. Yet you accuse me of selectively producing facts to "further my position".

I think that's just code for "I can't find any facts to support my position, so I concede".
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