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Question:  If the referendum were held now, how would you vote?
YES to independence
NO to independence
Don't know

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Scottish politics

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Sir Panda
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #105 on: September 24, 2012, 01:47 PM »
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I'm at work so can't watch the video with sound, but I sincerely hope it's a pragmatic and practical view of independence and the entailing scenarios, and not some romanticised bullsh*t.
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Mackem
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #106 on: September 24, 2012, 02:26 PM »
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Not to worry.  The Scottish electorate have yet to hear overwhelming evidence for either cause. Rolling Eyes  Whilst the "Yes to independence" campaigners have been more forthcoming than the "No" campaigners so far, they've still failed to convince the undecided/apathetic voters (20% of the electorate, if you believe the SNP) that independence is the right way forward.  It doesn't help either that it has yet to be decided whether the referendum will take the form of a straight Yes or No question, or whether there will be an option to vote for Devo-Max, i.e. more powers for the Scottish parliament, but even what this entails has still to be clarified.  Also it doesn't help that Scots MPs at Westminster keep sticking their noses in and stirring the pot and that the "Yes" camp is divided amongst itself on certain issues.  Then there's the on-going discussions between Holyrood and Westminster (well, Cameron and Salmond, to be exact) about the referendum itself .....

Basically, as I understand it, what it all really boils down to is how far an independent Scotland would be able to sustain itself financially -

* Could an independent Scotland boast a viable economy and vibrant job market?

* How would the government go about raising taxes - would Scots end up paying more tax than people living in England and Wales?

* The impact on the State Pension - would pensioners end up being better or worse off?

* The impact on Welfare Benefits - would there be enough in the kitty to cover existing and future benefits?
Aileen, as a half Scottish Accountant with specialities in international economics I humbly suggest that the answers to your questions are:
NO
YES, within 10 years certainly
WORSE OFF
NO
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Sir Panda
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #107 on: September 24, 2012, 02:36 PM »
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Aileen, as a half Scottish Accountant with specialities in international economics I humbly suggest that the answers to your questions are:
NO
YES, within 10 years certainly
WORSE OFF
NO

If you have speciality in the subject and the time, I'd love to hear you de-lineate further how you come to your conclusions. Smile
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Mackem
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #108 on: September 24, 2012, 02:52 PM »
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If you have speciality in the subject and the time, I'd love to hear you de-lineate further how you come to your conclusions. Smile
A lot might depend on the fiscal debt inherited by Scotland in the event of Independence.  If Scotland gets its fair share it comes down to a simply matter of microeconomics i.e. expenditure will exceed income - same principles apply whether it's a single person on their own 'making ends meet' or a National government balancing the books.  Within 5 years there will be enormous pressure to either raise taxes or cut public spending (even further).  Things will be 10 times worse if Scotland is forced to have the Euro - 100 times worse if there's a new independent currency.  Corporate investment in Scotland from outside Scotland will 'dry up' (in fact the is already starting to happen) because of the uncertainty created and the lack of trust in the fiscal economic abilities of the SNP leaders, which is already largely discredited.
That'll do for now!
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Fiverings
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #109 on: September 24, 2012, 03:35 PM »
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Aileen, as a half Scottish Accountant with specialities in international economics I humbly suggest that the answers to your questions are:
NO
YES, within 10 years certainly
WORSE OFF
NO
  Hmm. I wonder what the general picture will be for any UK resident in respect of all these points regardless of whether we're in the union or not.  The next generation is likely to be the first in many to be worse off than its parents. There are many very difficult issues ahead, and being part of UK plc ain't necessarily going to make them any easier.
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Aileen
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #110 on: September 24, 2012, 05:43 PM »
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Typical ScotNat anglophobic rant.  To use Sir Panda's words - romanticised bullsh*t.  I love my country dearly, and there are indeed some truths in what the speaker is saying, but I've no wish to see it falling into the hands of SNP radicals.  I'd prefer instead to have listened to a sensible, practical speech - one which, unlike this one, doesn't dwell solely on Scotland's grievances, many of which are of no relevance to Scotland today (why, for example, dredge up the Highland Clearances?) but also gives a clearer picture of what the outcome of independence is likely to be.  Until somebody manages to convince me beyond all shadow of doubt that independence is the way forward for this country, then I will remain firmly pro-Union.


A lot might depend on the fiscal debt inherited by Scotland in the event of Independence.  If Scotland gets its fair share it comes down to a simply matter of microeconomics i.e. expenditure will exceed income - same principles apply whether it's a single person on their own 'making ends meet' or a National government balancing the books.  Within 5 years there will be enormous pressure to either raise taxes or cut public spending (even further).  Things will be 10 times worse if Scotland is forced to have the Euro - 100 times worse if there's a new independent currency.  Corporate investment in Scotland from outside Scotland will 'dry up' (in fact the is already starting to happen) because of the uncertainty created and the lack of trust in the fiscal economic abilities of the SNP leaders, which is already largely discredited.
That'll do for now!
Thanks Mackem.  Very iteresting, and it's also clarified my own understanding that the uncertainty created by this referendum alone is deterring companies outside of Scotland from establishing businesses here.


Hmm. I wonder what the general picture will be for any UK resident in respect of all these points regardless of whether we're in the union or not.  The next generation is likely to be the first in many to be worse off than its parents. There are many very difficult issues ahead, and being part of UK plc ain't necessarily going to make them any easier.
A very valid point, but is independence going to make things any easier?  The last thing the people of the UK as a whole need at the moment is the years of instability which will surely follow if Scotland becomes independent.  Salmond has picked totally the wrong time for his referendum if he wants it to succeed.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #111 on: September 24, 2012, 09:14 PM »
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Typical ScotNat anglophobic rant.  To use Sir Panda's words - romanticised bullsh*t.  I love my country dearly, and there are indeed some truths in what the speaker is saying, but I've no wish to see it falling into the hands of SNP radicals.  I'd prefer instead to have listened to a sensible, practical speech - one which, unlike this one, doesn't dwell solely on Scotland's grievances, many of which are of no relevance to Scotland today (why, for example, dredge up the Highland Clearances?) but also gives a clearer picture of what the outcome of independence is likely to be.  Until somebody manages to convince me beyond all shadow of doubt that independence is the way forward for this country, then I will remain firmly pro-Union.

Aileen, I'm not going to try to convince you, your mind is clearly already made up.  I would say however that Sir Panda mentioned romantic bull**** before having heard the content of that clip.  We don't know for sure what he thinks about it.  Except you do.  Dismissing grievances and the highland clearances as 'romantic bull****' is surely your own form of romantic bull****. 

Thanks Mackem.  Very iteresting, and it's also clarified my own understanding that the uncertainty created by this referendum alone is deterring companies outside of Scotland from establishing businesses here.

So a half Scottish Liverpudlian accountant has convinced you that your assessment of the economic consequences of independence was right all along.  The same consequences, repeated parrot fashion that flow from the mouths of the odious Osborne and his fellow CBI buddies that owe him one. They can be seen as propaganda and threats, or do you really  believe that he has the best interests of the Scottish people at heart?

A very valid point, but is independence going to make things any easier?  The last thing the people of the UK as a whole need at the moment is the years of instability which will surely follow if Scotland becomes independent.  Salmond has picked totally the wrong time for his referendum if he wants it to succeed.

I think you'll find that a global recession on top of a global banking crisis has happened, during a very poor New Labour governments reign.  This has been followed by a Tory/Lib Dem coalition that has compounded our poor financial position by leading us into a double dip recession.  Do you really think that other members of this country agree with you, that this is the wrong time for a referendum to succeed?
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #112 on: September 24, 2012, 09:34 PM »
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I didn't notice much reference to England at all Aileen in the video - rather to the British state.   That is one of the reasons I would prefer independence - even in Scotland there is confusion between England and Britain - and there certainly is in England.     Until someone convinces me that the way forward for Scotland is with the Union I will remain firmly for independence.   
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Aileen
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #113 on: September 25, 2012, 01:10 AM »
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I think you'll find that a global recession on top of a global banking crisis has happened, during a very poor New Labour governments reign.  This has been followed by a Tory/Lib Dem coalition that has compounded our poor financial position by leading us into a double dip recession.  Do you really think that other members of this country agree with you, that this is the wrong time for a referendum to succeed?
I wasn't saying that I agreed with Mackem, merely thanking him for clarifying a situation I already knew existed, i.e. that companies outside Scotland are becoming very reluctant to expand their businesses to Scotland because of the uncertainty created by the proposed referendum - and that's just their reaction to the referendum, not independence, which is only likely to cause even more uncertainty.  If it did happen it would take probably at least a generation before the consequences of independence, whether for good or for ill, could be truly established.
 
Yes, the Highland Clearances were an atrocity, but they bear no relation to what is going on in the UK today simply because such a thing would never have been allowed to happen.  Why can't us Scots stop raking up our grievances over and over again and start focussing instead on all the great things that Scotland is famous for - and if you care to think about it, there are plenty.  For a start, what about all the inventions and medical discoveries that have been made by Scots over the last 200 years?  What about our whisky trade and the fact that Scots are famous the world over for their friendliness and hospitality?  What about the fact that the Bank of England was founded by a Scot (William Paterson) and that Adam Smith became one of the greatest economists and philosophers the UK has ever known?

Also my mind is not firmly made up.  I could still change my opinions if I could hear a few sensible and practical cases as to why Scotland should become independent, and what the outcome of that independence is expected to be.  Unfortunately now that Salmond and the SNP seem to have shrouded themselves in a cloak of secrecy on certain aspects of independence, this seems unlikely at the moment.

I have no love for the current Tory/LibDem government, nor had I any for the previous Labour one, for their mismanagement of Britain's financial affairs because they chose, and still choose, to turn a blind eye to what greedy bankers get up to.  My question is - could Scotland on its own dig itself out of recession, and from what I've heard and read, it seems very unlikely.  Salmond had little credibility left when he pointed out the similarities between what an independent Scotland could achieve financially and economically with both Iceland and Ireland just before both these countries sank - spectacularly, in the case of Iceland.



I didn't notice much reference to England at all Aileen in the video - rather to the British state.   That is one of the reasons I would prefer independence - even in Scotland there is confusion between England and Britain - and there certainly is in England.     Until someone convinces me that the way forward for Scotland is with the Union I will remain firmly for independence.   
True, England wasn't mentioned specifically, but the implication was still there.  I've listened to these sort of rants for decades and this one is pretty similar to what was being spouted 40/50 years ago, the only difference being that, had Salmond and the SNP been in government then, Scotland could well have become independent because their was much more nationalistic feeling in this country then that there is now.  Had a independence referendum been held then I would probably have voted in favour.

I'm well aware of the England=Britain thing, and it does irk me, but for the moment I'm prepared to live with it rather than see the Union broken.







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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #114 on: September 25, 2012, 02:44 AM »
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Yes, the Highland Clearances were an atrocity, but they bear no relation to what is going on in the UK today simply because such a thing would never have been allowed to happen.  Why can't us Scots stop raking up our grievances over and over again and start focussing instead on all the great things that Scotland is famous for - and if you care to think about it, there are plenty. 

highfive  There are some terrible things that have happened in this world but why keep on dragging it up.  What about having a go at the Italians for invading everywhere, together with Germans (yeah, there was the more recent thing and I do have German aunt), the French, the Scandinavians?  My Grandad was probably from Scottish or Irish origins (McSkelly) but I never remember him going on about things that inevitably get dragged up - his family moved down south for the work.  As people do, as we did (though we had jobs).

If the benefits outweigh the pitfalls of being independent, then sure, Scotland should go for it.  What I fail to understand is that if the Union is so bad, why are they keeping what would appear to be the best parts of it?

Re the England thing - I think that's down to education.  We speak English, therefore we are English doh
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #115 on: September 25, 2012, 03:32 AM »
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highfive  There are some terrible things that have happened in this world but why keep on dragging it up.  What about having a go at the Italians for invading everywhere, together with Germans (yeah, there was the more recent thing and I do have German aunt), the French, the Scandinavians?  My Grandad was probably from Scottish or Irish origins (McSkelly) but I never remember him going on about things that inevitably get dragged up - his family moved down south for the work.  As people do, as we did (though we had jobs).
Because there seems to be something negative in the Scottish psyche that makes so many of us do it, although why, I don't know.  Maybe the persistent idea of "poor old downtrodden Scotland", which is all England's fault.  Admittedly the English did hammer us rotten at times, but we didn't exactly sit there and take it!  I do find it rather pathetic that a battle we fought and won 700 years ago is still being seen as Scotland's greatest success against the English, and it's precisely because 2014 will be the exact 700th anniversary of Bannockburn that Salmond has chosen that year for the referendum.

Quote
If the benefits outweigh the pitfalls of being independent, then sure, Scotland should go for it.  What I fail to understand is that if the Union is so bad, why are they keeping what would appear to be the best parts of it?
But that's where independence falls down.  If Scotland really wants to be fully independent, then it should dump the monarchy and become a republic, have its own currency and not keep the £, have passport controls at the Scotland/England border, and regard the many English people living here as aliens (completely overlooking the fact that thousand of Scots live in England).  Salmond proposes none of these.

Quote
Re the England thing - I think that's down to education.  We speak English, therefore we are English doh
It isn't that simple.  It's long been felt in Scotland that to many English people England=Britain.  A good example of this is hearing English people referring to Prince William as the future King of England, something which happens quite often.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #116 on: September 25, 2012, 04:22 AM »
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Back to the education thing Aileen lol 

They do it here.  They keep saying am I English, to which I reply that I was born in England but I'm British.  Yes, I'm proud of my roots but that's what it says on my passport Very Happy  I support England in those sports that have England representing them, but I support the other home nations too.  When push comes to shove, I go for England over other home nations but that's not unnatural, is it? dontknow 

The thing is, that's not unique to the UK.  Some Maori refer to themselves as one nation and not Kiwis/New Zealanders along with the rest of them (me still being a resident, not a citizen) which is a real shame.  They think that constant payouts from the crown (all taxpayers in NZ, not the Queen back in the UK btw) for past wrongs (though I'm guessing not everything was wrong) together with land being given back and rights over the land will make it all better. The current bone of contention is the rights over water - Maori say that they have always owned river/waterways Rolling Eyes 
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #117 on: September 25, 2012, 12:09 PM »
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Depressing sterility creeping into these exchanges.  We are where we are, you can't change the past, there is not a nation on earth, current or extinct, that does not have  ugly as well as noble things in its past. Independence for Scotland, in the sense of having full responsibility for our own actions as a viable economic unit  in the modern world, is about the people living in Scotland today, regardless of ethnic origin, and their future.  Everything else is smoke and mirrors, and adds very little to the debate.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #118 on: September 25, 2012, 12:37 PM »
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A good example of this is hearing English people referring to Prince William as the future King of England, something which happens quite often.

Whilst I agree with most of what you say, Aileen, I think technically William is the future King of England but he is also the future King of Scots - there is a subtle difference which I rather like.
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Re: Scottish politics « Reply #119 on: September 25, 2012, 01:30 PM »
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Whilst I agree with most of what you say, Aileen, I think technically William is the future King of England but he is also the future King of Scots - there is a subtle difference which I rather like.
Whilst I agree with most of what you say, Aileen, I think technically William is the future King of England but he is also the future King of Scots - there is a subtle difference which I rather like.
  You have picked up an important distinction - King of Scots refers to the people; King of England refers to the territory. That in itself is a good indicator of the deep difference between the Scots and the English - much more egalitarian and democratic. Goes back to the Declaration of Arbroath and the notion that the monarch ruled with the consent of his people as their champion, and if he didn't, they would replace him .
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