Speaking of luck - yes, he indeed need a ton of it. He needs a very good draw and a perfect schedule. Everyone got a break at their first slam shot - even Federer - so it's only fair he gets one too. There will be absolutely no shame in it. If he faces someone in the final who is also looking for his first grand slam, then Andy has a greater chance, though it will be a choke fest between the two, but Andy is a far better player then the rest and should come through in the end. The five set format will help him get through given ups and downs which he will most certainly face. Given everything - fresh and rested, suface, conditions, schedules, distance - AO is the most ideal Slam for Andy. All he needs is a very favourable draw and that's all. AO is unpredictable in this way anyway.
It will NOT be luck or the draw or the gods who decide if Andy will win a Slam. It will have to be HIS game that provides that "piece of the puzzle".....if he can't suck it up and play with the big boys he doesn't deserve to be winning anything!!! It is the work and mental strenght which makes great players, pretenders don't have it; they ain't great!!!!
Andy for the moment is a pretender who, I admit, is exciting to watch on occasion, but where the consistancy matters, he can't seem to put it together. We all have been saying for years, late bloomer, maybe next year, poor luck, hurt, etc., When's it going to happen is anybody's guess, but look at the odds. Are they in his favor or not? This is gambling with fate and nothing more. I just want to see good tennis, even if he loses!!!