I believe that at this moment, Alex's aim is that of gaining a direct entry into the Australian Open. He'll need to be ranked within the top 110 to ensure that, because surely there will be a few withdrawals.
For that he'll need to gain around 95 more ranking points. It's not going to be easy at all, but let us see what he will do.
He doesn't defend much till the last week of the European season.... By defending I mean defending from that week during the last year and not his 18th best points.
0 points during Mons 125K+H. He can win against Falla and that will get him 9 points. He will get 21 points if he wins another round.
0 points during ATP Vienna qualies. If he qualifies and loses in round one, he will get 15 points for his effort. That's more than what he'll get for a quarters at a 75K. A win in the first round will get him 25 points.
12 points during Kolding 50K+H. He will need to reach the quarters to succesfully defend that, but that will be tough as it is the week of the Madrid Masters and there are six top 100 players! A round one win will get him 6 points and a quarters appearence will get him 14 points.
0 points during Nottingham 25K+H (not confirmed). The biggest opportunity during this period. Home support, a surface that he likes, no points to defend..... Semis seem achievable, that'll get him 22 points. And he can always do better than that.
0 points during Aachen 50K+H (not confirmed).Expect a strong field, because it clashes with the Paris Masters. A round one win will get him 6 points and a quarters appearence will get him 14 points.
5 points during Bratislava 100K+H (not confirmed).The Tour season will be over, but some players will realise that they have not achieved enough and will surely play here for some easy points. Hrbaty should be there. A round one win will get him 8 points while an appearence in the quarter finals will get him 19 points.
5 points during Helsinki 50K (not confirmed).Entry list should not be that strong because there is a 125K+H in Dnepropetrovsk. He will get 12 points for a quarters appearence.
If things go that way, Alex would be having around 385 ranking points and a ranking of something around 115.
And then there will be massive 50 points that he will be defending from last year's win in Sunderland.
He will need to repeat that feat this year in Shrewsbury. He could also win the Challenger at Nottingham and reach the semis here or reach the finals in both places. But he needs to pick up around 70 points from the two British Challengers.
After the European season, he can travel to the USA for the last Challenger of the year, Maui 50K. He will be defending 5 points. A semis appearence here will get him 22 points.
All this will get him a total of 402 points. That will almost certainly get him a place in the Australian Open. The road is really tough, but nothing that I've mentioned above needs him to do something out of the world. He will just need to play the tennis he is capable of - the sort of tennis he played this year against people like Seppi, Mirnyi, Wang and Tim. If he does that, I have little doubt about the fact that he can achieve it.
