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Topic: Derren Brown: The System (Read 952 times)
Mark
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Derren Brown: The System
« on: February 01, 2008, 11:08:02 PM »
"The System", a Channel 4 special in which Brown shared his "100 per cent guaranteed" method for winning on the horses, aired on Friday 1st February
Did anyone see this? It was, as you would expect, an amazing show from the master.
I genuinely think that if there is a God and a Devil, he is the devil. Everything he does goes towards proving that this world is simple. This show proved that the world is all based on statistics and therefore technically we can cheat life. His other shows go to prove that we do not have free will because given the right skills, we can control other people.
Everything he does make God look less impressive for creating the world and human life.
[ Last edit by Mark February 01, 2008, 11:45:09 PM ]
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nkp2
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2008, 02:53:07 PM »
WHAT WAS THE SYSTEM!!! MY DAD NEEDS TO KNOW!!
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2008, 02:55:45 PM »
This was added to Wikipedia over night:
"The System", a Channel 4 special in which Brown shared his "100 per cent guaranteed" method for winning on the horses, aired on Friday 1st February [8] [9].
The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to predict the outcome of horse races with total accuracy. In the show, cameras followed an ordinary member of the public, Khadisha, as Brown anonymously sent her correct predictions of 5 races in a row, before encouraging her to place as much money as she could on the 6th race.
To demonstrate the system to the viewer Brown flipped a coin for 10 heads in a row to prove it was not impossible, just improbable.
After Khadishia had placed £4,000 of her own money on a horse, Brown explained that 'the system' didn't really exist. He had contacted 7,776 people originally and split all of them into 6 groups, giving each group a different horse. As each horse won, 5/6ths of the people had lost and were dropped from the system. Far from Derren knowing which horse would win, he had a different person on every horse and it was simple probability that had let Khadishia win 5 times in a row, rather then one of the 7,775 other people. This was similar to the coin flipping earlier, rather than being a great skill, had simply taken him 9 hours to film, until 10 heads had come up in a row. Brown used The System as an example of the reasoning which makes homeopathic medicine, and alternative medicine in general, appear effective: "The System is... a belief system".
In apparent contradiction to his claim that no system existed, Derren correctly selected the winning horse in the last race, meaning Khadishia kept her stake and received winnings totalling £13,000.
It is amazing that when he filmed with her in the last race, he knew which horse would win just based on probability. If everything in life can be explained by probability and statistics, it sort of suggests we don't have genuine free will, it's strange.
[ Last edit by Mark February 02, 2008, 02:59:21 PM ]
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nkp2
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2008, 03:15:49 PM »
Quote from: Mark on February 02, 2008, 02:55:45 PM
This was added to Wikipedia over night:
"The System", a Channel 4 special in which Brown shared his "100 per cent guaranteed" method for winning on the horses, aired on Friday 1st February [8] [9].
The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to predict the outcome of horse races with total accuracy. In the show, cameras followed an ordinary member of the public, Khadisha, as Brown anonymously sent her correct predictions of 5 races in a row, before encouraging her to place as much money as she could on the 6th race.
To demonstrate the system to the viewer Brown flipped a coin for 10 heads in a row to prove it was not impossible, just improbable.
After Khadishia had placed £4,000 of her own money on a horse, Brown explained that 'the system' didn't really exist. He had contacted 7,776 people originally and split all of them into 6 groups, giving each group a different horse. As each horse won, 5/6ths of the people had lost and were dropped from the system. Far from Derren knowing which horse would win, he had a different person on every horse and it was simple probability that had let Khadishia win 5 times in a row, rather then one of the 7,775 other people. This was similar to the coin flipping earlier, rather than being a great skill, had simply taken him 9 hours to film, until 10 heads had come up in a row. Brown used The System as an example of the reasoning which makes homeopathic medicine, and alternative medicine in general, appear effective: "The System is... a belief system".
In apparent contradiction to his claim that no system existed, Derren correctly selected the winning horse in the last race, meaning Khadishia kept her stake and received winnings totalling £13,000.
It is amazing that when he filmed with her in the last race, he knew which horse would win just based on probability. If everything in life can be explained by probability and statistics, it sort of suggests we don't have genuine free will, it's strange.
Oh is that it.... well in that case your last sentence is crap, because it is probability. you look at horse form, how it looks on the day, it's odds, how it;s done against other horses in the same race, how it's done on the course. The jockey, the trainer, everything and you can predict quite well usually. So he probably had several people help him to pick the likely winner in the last race. Lucky it won basically.
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2008, 03:20:08 PM »
Quote from: nkp2 on February 02, 2008, 03:15:49 PM
you look at horse form, how it looks on the day, it's odds, how it;s done against other horses in the same race, how it's done on the course. The jockey, the trainer, everything and you can predict quite well usually. So he probably had several people help him to pick the likely winner in the last race. Lucky it won basically.
Nope, none of the above was part of the system. It had absolutely nothing to do with the horse, the jockey, it's history. Purely based on the probability of getting a winner 6 times in a row regardless of the jockey. The last race was meant to be using that simple system.
[ Last edit by Mark February 02, 2008, 03:21:27 PM ]
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nkp2
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2008, 03:21:27 PM »
Quote from: Mark on February 02, 2008, 03:20:08 PM
Nope, none of the above was part of the system. It had absolutely nothing to do with the horse, the jockey, it's history. Purely based on the probability of getting a winner 6 times in a row regardless of the jockey.
That wasn't my point. I read your post. I'm just saying it;s not AMAZING that he picked the
last winner.
He probably looked at all of what I said above and chose it.
[ Last edit by nkp2 February 02, 2008, 03:21:38 PM ]
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2008, 03:22:45 PM »
No he wasn't allowed to, all the races had to be won by his system, he couldn't change it for the last race purely because he was being filmed.
[ Last edit by Mark February 02, 2008, 03:24:31 PM ]
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Yamor
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2008, 03:02:32 AM »
I don't understand you, Mark. From what I understand, he used his 'system' (which isn't really much of a system, he just basically covered every possibility. I've done that before as well, just on a smaller scale) just for the first five horses. The sixth horse, on which they won 12,000 was nothing to do with the system, just, like Neil says, a good old-fashioned punt...
For anyone who's interested in risk-free betting, I suggest they go into arbitrage betting. I have a friend who has made thousands from it. The one problem is that it takes time and a good internet connection...
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AL1874
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2008, 11:01:50 AM »
I always enjoy Darren Brown shows and even got picked to go forward to the selection stage for the Russian roulette show (I could not attend due to a death in the family).
The system for covering all the bases was simple enough and if the last punt was down to luck then good on him as the woman look in a state of shock when see thought she had lost and it added to the tension.
But that did not explain the selection of the photographs by the four people earlier in the show, creepy.
[ Last edit by AL1874 February 03, 2008, 07:18:50 PM ]
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2008, 02:33:51 PM »
Yamor, the final horse was intended to still be part of the system. If you recall the conversation he had with her when telling her to get as much money as possible, he told her to do so because the system works. He wouldn't say this if he was going to use his own personal methods for the final race.
Did you actually see the programme? Or are you basing your comments on what Neil said when he didn't even see it?
Quote from: AL1874 on February 03, 2008, 11:01:50 AM
But that did not explain the selection of the photographs buy the four people earlier in the show, creepy.
This is the thing, he explains somethings but stuff like that he just doesn't give an explanation for. It was extremely impressive and could not have been done based on his horse racing system.
[ Last edit by Mark February 03, 2008, 02:37:44 PM ]
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Yamor
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2008, 05:07:21 PM »
I didn't see the programme, I was however basing what I said on the Wikipedia article, which explains the system, and that explanation only covers the first five predictions (that is, that he covered every possibility), that 'system' does not explain the final prediction, since he did not cover all options there...
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2008, 06:39:44 PM »
The Wikipedia article is completely accurate, it said there were 5 race predictions that were "sent" to the women, the 6th was done when they met face to face. Now assuming my memory is correct, he encouraged her to bet on the 6th race because "the system works", not because he could be trusted to make the right choice.
The final sentence simply leaves open the potential for skepticism over the last race because it was so impressive that the horse won and yet he was apparently lucky enough to have it happen when he was filming with her.
[ Last edit by Mark February 03, 2008, 06:57:08 PM ]
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Yamor
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2008, 07:01:13 PM »
From what I understand he told her 'the system works' before he explained to her what the system was. After the explanation its clear there was only a system for the first five!
Listen to yourself: you explained yourself that the 'system' was just that he covered all the possibilities, by sending to thousands of different people different predictions. How is it possible that he used that 'system' for the 6th race, where he didn't cover all the possibilities?
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rafa
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2008, 07:13:36 PM »
Yamor is right, he couldn't have used "The System" for the last race
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Mark
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Re: Derren Brown: The System
« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2008, 07:14:28 PM »
I thought she may have been the last of a final group of people who had won 5 races in a row and then it was impressive that he filmed with the right person. But now I remember she was told that she was on her own.
[ Last edit by Mark February 03, 2008, 07:18:29 PM ]
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