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Poll
Question: How well will Murray do at the US Open?
Winner - 7 (20.6%)
Finalist - 7 (20.6%)
Semi-Finalist - 15 (44.1%)
QuarterFinalist - 4 (11.8%)
4th round - 1 (2.9%)
1st-3rd round - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 34

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Author Topic: Ranking next week...  (Read 71538 times)
Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1380 on: November 05, 2007, 05:38:32 PM »
Quote from: Spud on November 05, 2007, 05:27:00 PM


Most importantly, seeds 9-12 will face seeds 5-8 in the quarter finals and avoid the top 4 seeds so it doesn't really matter whether he can mathematically reach the top 8 before the Aussie Open anyway.


you probably mean R16, but still there is a slight difference - 9-12 are not as good players as 5-8...
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1381 on: November 05, 2007, 05:40:35 PM »
Also, its not true that shanghai players get a minimum of 100 points. If they don't who any games, they don't get anything.
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nkp2
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1382 on: November 05, 2007, 05:41:11 PM »
Yeah, but it's still better facing 5-8 than 1-4...... Ok, so if he was 8th, he'd be facing someone in 9-12, but the comparisons aren't there for me. I don't thinl there is all that much difference. Spud's main point is that whoever said he'd be facing top 4 a round earlier was wrong.
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Spud
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1383 on: November 05, 2007, 05:50:58 PM »
Quote from: nkp2 on November 05, 2007, 05:41:11 PM

Yeah, but it's still better facing 5-8 than 1-4...... Ok, so if he was 8th, he'd be facing someone in 9-12, but the comparisons aren't there for me. I don't thinl there is all that much difference. Spud's main point is that whoever said he'd be facing top 4 a round earlier was wrong.


That's the point I was trying to get across, thanks for the support Neil. Besides, a horribly off form Roddick/Gonzalez would be a far better draw in the 4th round than an on-fire Nalbandian.
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Spud
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1384 on: November 05, 2007, 05:51:27 PM »
Quote from: Yamor on November 05, 2007, 05:38:32 PM


you probably mean R16, but still there is a slight difference - 9-12 are not as good players as 5-8...


you're right, it's been edited.
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ljsmall
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1385 on: November 06, 2007, 01:28:07 AM »
Top 8 by the time he leaves the southern hemisphere I think!
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gjr
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1386 on: November 06, 2007, 10:41:09 AM »
Quote from: ljsmall on November 06, 2007, 01:28:07 AM

Top 8 by the time he leaves the southern hemisphere I think!


Yup. Depends on the draw and how the points in Shanghai are distributed. If has expected Fed, Nole and rafa take the lions share of the points then top 8 should be very possible
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Sir Panda
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1387 on: November 06, 2007, 01:32:00 PM »
Can't wait till Gonzo's AO points drop off.  Little tongue man
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nkp2
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1388 on: November 06, 2007, 01:42:15 PM »
Quote from: Spud on November 05, 2007, 05:27:00 PM

Calm down people, Andy's in pretty good shape for the November-January period.

Assuming he's going to Doha to defend his final only Davydenko from last years entry list is ranked higher, with only one more top 10 player should turn at the most, so Andy'll be seeded 2-3 and I'm confident he'll go one better and win the title this year.

Players losing points in November: Canas (95)
*Shanghai contestants all gain at least 100 points.

Players defending points  in the first week of 2008: Ljubicic (Doha W, 175), Djokovic (Adelaide W, 155), Murray (Doha F, 150), Daydenko (Doha SF, 85), Canas (Challenger W, 65), Moya (Chennai SF, 35), Nadal (Chennai SF, 20)

Australian Open seedings done. So, if Murray wins Doha and no other rankings change he'll be seeded 9th, if he defends the final 11th, if he loses in the semis 13th, and before the semis 14th.

Players defending points in second week of 2008: Ferrer (Auckland W, 135), Blake (Sydney W, 100), Moya (Sydney F, 95), Robredo (Auckland F, 60), Gasquet (Sydney SF, 35)

Australian Open Points: Federer (1000), Gonzalez (700), Roddick (450), Haas (450), Robredo (250), Davydenko (250), Nadal (250), Murray (150), Blake (150), Djokovic (150), Ferrer (150), Nalbandian (150), Berdych (150), Youzhny (75), Chela (75), Canas (65), Baghdatis (35), Ljubicic (5), Moya (5)

Most importantly, seeds 9-12 will face seeds 5-8 in the 4th round and avoid the top 4 seeds so it doesn't really matter whether he can mathematically reach the top 8 before the Aussie Open anyway.

Total points to defend in January:
1) Federer 1000
2) Gonzalez 700
3) Roddick 450
4) Haas 450
5) Davydenko 435
6) Robredo 310
7) Djokovic 305
8) Murray 300
9) Ferrer 285
10) Nadal 270
11) Blake 250
12) Canas 225
13) Gasquet 185
14) Ljubicic 180
15 Berdych 150
16 Nalbandian 150
17 Moya 135
18 Youzhny 75
19 Chela 75
20 Baghdatis 35

Post-AO predictions are obviously tricky to say the least. But Murray should defend his points at the very least. Gonzalez and Haas will need a miracle to defend theirs while Robredo could struggle without a top 8 seeding to reach the quarters again.

With a bit of luck Murray SHOULD have cracked the top 10 by February. Think




Sorry Spud, but last year the point for Doha were 250 for the W and 175 for the F. So if he wins Doha, will he not just be on the same points as he is now. (As he'll lose 175 for the final last year, and then gain 175 for the win this year). No other players ahead of him are losing points in week one, in fact Nalbandian could gain points and pull away in Shanghai. So how does he move to 9th? Either you have 2008 points wrong, or you have them right and he stays 11th.
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1389 on: November 06, 2007, 02:30:39 PM »
I think most of the points that he's written here are the wrong totals, except for the australian open, for example, the lowest amount of points for a tournament win is 175, and he gave some winners less then that, also he gave nadal and moya different points for doing the same thing in chennai. There are a lot of other mistakes as well. (i think)
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Allan
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1390 on: November 06, 2007, 02:43:16 PM »
I think I know what Spud has done - he has taken the smallest amount of points they have gained in a week and taken it way from the points agained week one or two.
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1391 on: November 06, 2007, 02:46:51 PM »
I understand now, but its still a bit misleading, because even if a player gets all the points that spud says he's defending, he still loses points. Spud is only right concerning the maximum points the players can lose...
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nkp2
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1392 on: November 06, 2007, 04:22:49 PM »
Yeah it's all a bit confusing for Best 5 tournaments....

Basically if Andy does win Doha he'll PROBABLY be 9th. But we'll just have to wait and see. I'd rather do the maths after the 2nd/3rd round of each tournament and we can actually speculate where Andy will be according to what players are left in what tournies. It's a bit of a wild guess to say who will be where at this stage. So many assumptions about players dropping/gaining points.
[ Last edit by nkp2 November 06, 2007, 04:26:11 PM ] Logged
nads
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1393 on: November 08, 2007, 10:31:09 AM »
Quote from: nkp2 on November 06, 2007, 04:22:49 PM

But we'll just have to wait and see. I'd rather do the maths after the 2nd/3rd round of each tournament and we can actually speculate where Andy will be according to what players are left in what tournies.


Same here...
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #1394 on: November 20, 2007, 11:16:10 PM »
FOR ANY EXPERTS ON RANKING:
(i don't think this deserves a new thread...)

I've just been working out different possibilities for the rankings next year, and sometimes it depends on amount of tournaments played (if you're level on total points, as well as points from GS & MS events), but for some reason, the number of tournaments played given on the ATP website is wrong for a lot of players: for example Nadal, they say, has played one less tournament then he really has (as you can see if you look at his points breakdown). What is going on?
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