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Yamor
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Updated possibilities with the draw taken into account, and Baghdatis' withdrawal:
If Andy withdraws, loses in R64, or loses in R32:
Possibilities: 22-27
Probable: 22
If Andy loses in R16:
Possibilities: 20-26
Probable: 22
If Andy loses in QF:
Possibilities: 14-24
Probable: 19
If Andy loses in SF:
Possibilities: 11-18
Probable: 13
If Andy loses in F:
Possibilities: 11-13
Probable: 11
If Andy wins the tourny:
Possibilities: 9-11
Probable: 10
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Yamor
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I don't know why all the guys who work out the rankings on AM.com and on MTF.com always give 5 points straight away to each player - its not guaranteed that everyone will get 5 points, because they can still withdraw and get zero points!
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ljsmall
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I suppose they're just minimising the unlikely options cause there are so many factors to deal with.
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Yamor
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It hardly adds anything! Its only five points...
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nads
ATP Level
Posts: 2,974
Gender: 
Location: Luxembourg
My Fav AM Pic!
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Well that depends entirely where in the rankings you are. I remember a time when 5 points meant +20 places...
... at the end of the day, it is very rare that people withdraw days before a tournament, and if this happens, the guys just update the table... basically it's less work if you assume they'll play.
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Yamor
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It often happens at least once a tourney. Haas withdrew this week. 2 players withdrew at Indian Wells...
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nads
ATP Level
Posts: 2,974
Gender:
Location: Luxembourg
My Fav AM Pic!
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Yes, but rarely after the draw. Plus if one withdraws, the other 63/47/31 are playing, so it is still less work to assume all play and change the ones that don't than to assume none will play, and start awarding points once they do...
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mackym
Challenger Level
Posts: 834
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Yawn at me all you like Mark but how much have we gone on about the empty run up to the US Open on the last few weeks. And how much were we devastated by that injury spell last year.
I've added a poll... |
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fifeguy1234
Newbie
Posts: 53
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i think a lot depends on how andy does on the clay and a good performance at wimbledon could see him jump into top 5 or there abouts
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nhilun
Futures Level
Posts: 470
Gender:
Location: Vietnam
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If he does well in Miami, his ranking will be 7-10
I hope the nightmare won't happen to Murray again.
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Yamor
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His highest possible ranking is 9th, and that only if he wins the tourney, and Blake withdraws! Almost definitely, even if he wins he won't be higher then 10th. Even if he gets to the final he won't be top 10 - see the possibilities I've posted above.
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nhilun
Futures Level
Posts: 470
Gender:
Location: Vietnam
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His highest possible ranking is 9th, and that only if he wins the tourney, and Blake withdraws! Almost definitely, even if he wins he won't be higher then 10th. Even if he gets to the final he won't be top 10 - see the possibilities I've posted above.
No, I mean his ranking by the start of the US Open. |
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Yamor
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Ah, sorry, I misunderstood. But if so, why do you make it so dependent on Miami? Also, you're being very pessimistic!
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nkp2
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It's not dependant on Miami. It's an opinion. Hard Court, same as the US circuit prior to USOpen, a good performance here sets him up well for the clay. Pretty sure that's what nhilun is saying  |
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ljsmall
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4-6. I'm thinking about 6 actually. Dislodge Ferrer. Or Davydenko. The rest'll stay pretty much the same. Although Tsonga'll probably also penetrate the 5-10 field.
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Yamor
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I was just wondering, why does this thread start in the middle of nowhere? Where are the earlier posts about Murray's ranking?
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Allan
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Arka posted them on one of the relevant threads at the time. There wasn't a particular thread, I don't think, before last year.
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terryfried
Satellite Level
Posts: 235
Gender: 
Location: Hull, England
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everyone goes on about Murray up to the US Open but he did not do much there or for a month or so after last year. In fact with the points he gets if he turns up to all the events he supposed to (not tempting injury fate) after this week he only has 85 points to defend in 6 months. ie up to 1st October
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