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Poll
Question: How well will Murray do at the US Open?
Winner - 3 (12.5%)
Finalist - 4 (16.7%)
Semi-Finalist - 12 (50%)
QuarterFinalist - 4 (16.7%)
4th round - 1 (4.2%)
1st-3rd round - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 24

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Author Topic: Ranking next week...  (Read 69848 times)
Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2160 on: May 16, 2008, 02:17:48 PM »
I'm not sure about that...

Anyway, coming back to Roland Garros, Andy has clinched a top 12 seeding through the loss of Verdasco today.
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Mark
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Bend over and hold my balls.
Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2161 on: May 16, 2008, 02:22:36 PM »
Woohoo! Very Happy

Now time to work out his potential ranking increase at the French Open.
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2162 on: May 16, 2008, 02:26:37 PM »
I'll do some rough estimates soon.

For those who haven't been following, a top 12 seed means Andy will not face a top 4 player until the quarter finals. In the round of 16 he'll face a player seeded 5-8, which includes Roddick and Blake (so a 50% chance of getting one of them), who are not very good on clay.
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ljsmall
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2163 on: May 16, 2008, 02:27:17 PM »
Yes! Does that mean no 1-4 in Round 3? Hooray! Prospects of Blake and Roddick! Is Gasquet still above Andy?
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2164 on: May 16, 2008, 02:29:33 PM »
See my previous post. About Gasquet, he hasn't caught up yet, but Gasquet defends a lot now, so he should soon.
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ljsmall
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2165 on: May 16, 2008, 02:31:06 PM »
Sorry, missed that post. So that'll put him up another place if he doesn't play RG. Mind you, I don't suppose it matters now unless we can have a few more drop outs to take him up to 8th.
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2166 on: May 16, 2008, 02:35:42 PM »
Yup, it'll be hard to get 8th unless he has a pretty good tourney in RG.
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2167 on: May 16, 2008, 02:38:18 PM »
And by "pretty good", you mean?
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2168 on: May 16, 2008, 02:39:34 PM »
Well, i'm going to work on some predictions in a few mins when i get home. I'll post then...
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capnjack
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2169 on: May 16, 2008, 02:52:34 PM »
Wimbledon, Wimbledon !!!!!
Win that and my stern frame will shoot snipe!!!
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2170 on: May 16, 2008, 03:23:06 PM »
To get in the top 8 after the French, he'd need to reach the final there. And even then if the wrong players do very well, even that might not be good enough!
If he reaches the quarters, which is quite reasonable, he'd probably be 9th or 10th. If he reaches R16, he'd stay where he was, maybe rise one place. Any worse, I see him falling.
A semi final would almost definitely leave him 9th, and winning the thing wouldn't take him higher then 6th or 7th.
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2171 on: May 16, 2008, 03:31:30 PM »
Not as good as I hoped Think
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ljsmall
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2172 on: May 16, 2008, 03:35:16 PM »
Is there a huge gap between 11th and 8th at the moment then? And how can anything less than R3/4 see him drop when he has no points to defend? Surely he'll start the fortnight quite high up cause people above will be defending big totals?
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Yamor
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2173 on: May 16, 2008, 04:01:30 PM »
Well, R3 or lower he only gains max 75 points. He needs to earn 60 points more then Wawrinka to rise with that, so thats unlikely with only 75 points. There are plenty of players bunched below him within reach, and we have to expect one or two of them to have a good tourney. Hence i think with a third round or lower he'll be lucky to maintain 11th place.

The gap to 9th and 10th is fairly small, but 7th and 8th are both around 500 points ahead after taking off last years French points. Which means that he needs minimum a final to overtake. 6th place is just under 900 points away, so Andy might not even get there with a win. And 5th place is totally out of reach.

I think that should explain what I posted before.
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ljsmall
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #2174 on: May 16, 2008, 04:46:53 PM »
Certainly does. I believed you, I was just curious cause it seemed strange. The gaps certainly get wider at the top!
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