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Poll
Question: How well will Murray do at the US Open?
Winner - 7 (20.6%)
Finalist - 7 (20.6%)
Semi-Finalist - 15 (44.1%)
QuarterFinalist - 4 (11.8%)
4th round - 1 (2.9%)
1st-3rd round - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 34

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Author Topic: Ranking next week...  (Read 71534 times)
American Twist
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #375 on: March 17, 2007, 08:26:14 AM »

Even if he loses - he will have 1905 points with only 5 to defend in Miami. He just needs to have an average week and he's top 10 surely.

I would say top 11 surely, because Nalbandian defends 225 points in Miami and And has a pretty safe lead on Berdych and Ferrer unless they do something surprising.  The problem with getting to #10 is Djokovic.  If he loses to Djokovic tomorrow then he has to catch him in Miami which could be tough.  Everybody else in the top 10 is pretty safe for the time being. 

If Andy loses tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if he moves into the top 10 if/when he catches Lubjicic.
[ Last edit by American Twist March 17, 2007, 09:27:50 AM ] Logged
mackym
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #376 on: March 17, 2007, 12:35:16 PM »

I tell you what - let's just have him beat Nole then. Easier  Little tongue man
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #377 on: March 18, 2007, 12:17:17 AM »

It would be very painful to see Nole get #10 before Murray when he's the poorer player.
[ Last edit by Mark March 18, 2007, 12:17:32 AM ] Logged
American Twist
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #378 on: March 18, 2007, 03:59:39 AM »

Looking ahead, here are the point totals going into Miami:


#7 Lujbicic 2395 - def. 350
#8 Blake 2310 - def. 125
#9 Haas 2165 (*Djokovic 2210) - def. 35
#10 Djokovic 2060 (*Haas 2165) - def. 20
#11 Nalbandian 1995 - def. 225
#12 Murray 1905 - def. 5
#13 Ancic 1900 - def. 125
#14 Ferrer 1765 - def. 225
#15 Berdych 1715 - def. 35
#16 Gasquet 1590 - def. 5
#17 Youzhny 1515 - def. 5
 
There is going to be a lot less drama about Andy's ranking this tournament.
Ancic is OUT.
Ferrer, Gasquet, and Youzhny need to Win to have any chance to catch Andy
Berdych needs at least a SF to tie Andy
Realistically Andy will not be caught by anyone

Andy starts the tournament with an effective 130 point lead on Nalbandian.  130 is a very convenient number since it requires Nalbandian to make at least a SF to stay ahead of Andy.  If Andy reaches a QF, then Nalbandian must reach the Final.  So, chances are high that Andy will pass Nalbandian.

On the other hand, Andy effectively trails Djokovic by 140 points (if Djokovic loses to Nadal tomorrow), so he's in the same position chasing Djokovic that Nalbandian faces against Andy.  Suprisingly, he effectively trails Lubjicic by 145 points, so his chances of passing Lubjicic are probably better than his chances of passing Djokovic, based on how well Djokovic is playing. 

So, Andy's not going to drop unless something crazy happens.  He's probably going to move up to #11 unless Nalbandian has a great tournament.  He needs a SF to have a chance to pass anyone.

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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #379 on: March 18, 2007, 04:08:33 AM »

What are some of the realistic scenarios for Murray to overtake Nole?
[ Last edit by Mark March 18, 2007, 04:10:32 AM ] Logged
American Twist
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #380 on: March 18, 2007, 04:13:29 AM »

What needs to happen for Murray to overtake Nole?

If Djokovic loses tomorrow, then
Andy SF + Djokovic R16  or
Andy F + Djokovic QF or
Andy W + Djokovic F

If Djokovic wins tomorrow, then
Andy F + Djokovic R32 or
Andy W + Djokovic QF

Any way you slice it, it is unlikely, since Djokovic is now a #10 seed (or better) and he is playing well. 
[ Last edit by American Twist March 18, 2007, 04:14:48 AM ] Logged
Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #381 on: March 18, 2007, 04:15:37 AM »

Thanks for that, very interesting Think

I believe he can do it!! w00t
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scotsman75
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #382 on: March 18, 2007, 01:06:33 PM »

So most likely Murray will gain another place at the end of Miami, and then we have the clay season, where Murray can gain so many points!  At the beginning of the season, everyone of us would have loved to seen Andy in 11th going into the clay season. By wimbledon top 8, for sure!
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #383 on: March 18, 2007, 01:17:54 PM »

I just want Murray to overtake Nole and fast!
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Spud
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #384 on: March 18, 2007, 02:18:51 PM »

Just a thought but as Murray's now climbed up to #12 and will be seeded #11 at Miami he should avoid a top #4  player in the 4th Round right? So instead of facing either Federer, Nadal, Roddick or Davydenko he'll get Gonzalez, Robredo, Ljubicic or Blake making it easier for him to progress in my opinion.

 cmon yeah

Can't see anyone taking a set off of Federer next week, he'll be hungry and fresh for Miami, Nadal now seems on cracking form after his win over Roddick but might be tired after reaching the final this week.

I'd rather be in Nadal's half, Davydenko's quarter, face Blake in the 4th round and someone like Calleri in the 3rd.
Nightmare situation would be Federer's half, Roddick's quarter, Gonzalez or Robredo (game doesn't match up well against Tommy) in the 4th and Baghdatis in the 3rd.

Thoughts appreciated.
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #385 on: March 18, 2007, 02:26:25 PM »

Just a thought but as Murray's now climbed up to #12 and will be seeded #11 at Miami he should avoid a top #4  player in the 4th Round right? So instead of facing either Federer, Nadal, Roddick or Davydenko he'll get Gonzalez, Robredo, Ljubicic or Blake making it easier for him to progress in my opinion.

Yeah, this was mentioned in another thread...

The nice thing about being seeded #12 is that in R16 he is going to draw with #5, 6, 7, or 8, instead of #1, 2, 3, or, 4. 

#5 Gonzalez
#6 Robredo
#7 Blake
#8 Lubjicic

That's a hell of a lot better than possibly facing Federer or Nadal.  I would prefer to draw Lubjicic. For one, it would be great ot get even for Doha.  For another, beating Lubjicic in R16 automatically cut 385 points off Lubjicic's lead over Andy.

It's good news as all those players are very beatable for Murray Smile
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gjr
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #386 on: March 18, 2007, 05:48:55 PM »

The most important thing for me is Andy has now bridged the gap from 16-11.

Andy had about 1500 points at the start of the year, he now has about 1900. To be top 10 or better you need 2000 points, possibly a little more.

It's now a matter of time and it will happen. I would bet he could miss from now until Wimbledon and get into the top 10. Anything he picks up now will be massive pluses.
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Iain
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #387 on: March 18, 2007, 07:46:58 PM »

Great work American Twist. Could Andy reach top 5 by Wimbledon?? Is that dream-land. GivenTim's highest ranking was 4 it would be incredible if Andy could be virtually there at Wimbledon whilst still a teenager.
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Mark
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #388 on: March 18, 2007, 10:11:56 PM »

Any way you slice it, it is unlikely, since Djokovic is now a #10 seed (or better) and he is playing well. 
Is he really playing well? What makes you think that? He got to the finals of a MS event by playing a bunch of average players. I think Murray will overtake Nole by the end of Miami because it's unlikely Nole will get given such a huge wad of luck this time.

I believe Andy was and still is in better form than Nole at the moment.
[ Last edit by Mark March 18, 2007, 10:13:21 PM ] Logged
JohnW
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Re: Ranking next week... « Reply #389 on: March 18, 2007, 10:14:01 PM »

I believe Andy was and still is in better form that Nole at the moment.

Yep... without the injury (hip or ankle, btw? BBC article is a bit confused), Andy would certainly have beaten Djokovic.
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