I'm not arguing that. However I would suggest it is fairly realistic to suggest that, given his relatively poor clay credentials, the chances are not in his favour of beating Simon, Berdych and Wawrinka/Tsonga in succession.
Way I'm looking at this clay season is no expectations, so anything gained is a bonus. I would be over the moon if he makes the final, and it would be all the sweeter with lowered expectations. That's not to say I wouldn't be disappointed or frustrated with a defeat, before anyone brings this up after his next loss.
Andy has poor credentials on clay no doubt (a lot of his own fault for not playing those 250/500 in early stage of his career. He needed to build that.) but he's also off high caliber player who can turn things for himself regardless surface. You must take into account that he has the game to do so. It's not like we are expecting Haase to win RG. He should be able to beat that line-up at this point of his career. It's always about going to the next level and not getting stuck in 2009. That's where the hope and expectations kick in - even for Andy. I don't like to overestimate things but it's got to happen at some point and that's the whole point of this discussion. Andy, for one, cannot possibly think and go into each match keeping that line-up in mind and think it's an unbeatable line-up - never did it therefore, can never do it. He can't afford to have that attitude. He only needs to take care of things one at a time. It will eventually happen. When - we don't know but I'd rather hope it's sooner than never. It's not realism, at least for me, to only take the negative into account - the past and poor credentials so far and ignore all the potentials that have yet to unfold. It's just not my style. A person cannot afford to go into conquering Everest after a few failed attempts. Should he be realistic and write it off or should he try again? If he's persistent then he will try again and conquer. If not, then he should have never had it as part of his goal.
Well anyway, I get that people are different but Andy's not your typical average person.