MurraysWorld  >  Andy Talk  >  Australian Open R2: Andy Murray vs Andrey Rublev
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Predictions
Murray in 3 - 24 (92.3%)
Murray in 4 - 1 (3.8%)
Murray in 5 - 0 (0%)
Rublev in 3 - 0 (0%)
Rublev in 4 - 0 (0%)
Rublev in 5 - 1 (3.8%)
Total Voters: 26

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Australian Open R2: Andy Murray vs Andrey Rublev

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Data from Tennis Australia's Game Insight Group shows Andy Murray works harder per point than any other player on either tour, and he was made to work very hard indeed by Illya Marchenko for the best part of two and a quarter hours, before the Ukrainian began to wilt in the heat and Andy finally began to swing more freely from the baseline and cut down on the errors.

Conditions in Melbourne last week might be best described as pleasant, but the heat increased considerably and on-court conditions were much hotter, with the ball bouncing higher than usual, causing Andy more issues than just first match nerves. Marchenko put up a challenge from the start and broke Andy in the first game. Andy was rarely able to take control of the medium length rallies, performing best when the point ended in no more than four shots, the majority of Andy's points won came in points which ended after two shots.

Andy's first serve percentage was low - averaging 48% for the match - and his second serve did not reap the rewards it did at this time last year, when there was a noticeable increase of 8mph on average on his second delivery - up to 93mph average from 85mph the previous season, which had itself been an improvement on average speeds from 2013 and 2014.

In his opening match this year the speeds on his second serve frequently dipped to the mid-80s and below. The season is still very new, but having improved his second serve placement, depth, and speed over 2015-2016 it has been surprising to see Andy's second serve points won average down at 49% from the matches in Doha, from 54% average in 2016, and 52% in 2015.

The opponent awaiting in the second round is nineteen-year-old Andrey Rublev, who defeated Yen-hsun Lu in four sets to win his first main draw match at Slam level. Rublev is one of the youngest players in the top 200, and while he hasn't had the headline grabbing results of Zverev or Coric, has made steady progress up the rankings to reach his current career high of 152.

Statistics for the 2016 season suggest Rublev's returning is a weakness, but he attacked Lu's second serve, and converted 4 of 7 break points, whilst saving 19 of 22 on his own serve, firing down 19 aces, many when it really mattered. The hot conditions are likely to have suited Rublev as the higher bouncing ball in his opening match would be similar in some ways to the bounce on clay - the surface where his best results have come. The young Russian hits big and like Andy, might be described as a student of the game, and has talked about studying Roanic's serve, Nadal's footwork, and Federer's forehand as he grows his own game.  

The match is scheduled to be played on Wednesday 18th January, the last match on Rod Laver Arena, at an estimated start time of 8.30pm local time, 9.30am GMT, and 3am CST.

The weather is forecast to be clear, temperatures of 17 degrees Celsius, dropping to 14 as the night progresses, humidity of 54% rising to 65%, and a southerly wind of 11mph. On-court conditions will therefore be cooler and the ball bounce would be expected to be lower than in the first round.

This is the first meeting between Andy and Rublev.

[ Last edit by amongsttheleaves January 17, 2017, 09:34 pm ] IP Logged
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I watched some of a Rublev match last year somewhere, against Cilic, I think. He's young—hits the ball very hard, gets some amazing shots, began to get upset with himself and fall apart a bit when he started missing a few. I think Andy should win in three just based on his experience, even if, as when he played Marchenko, he isn't on top form. But I really feel that his game in the Marchenko match was part of figuring out the conditions and playing himself into slam form. Clearly there have already been discussions in the Murray camp about Andy camping out too far behind the baseline, etc., because he mentioned that in relation to his Djokovic match in Doha too. So obviously it's not as if he isn't aware of that--but he does have to fend off his natural instinct to fall back and defend as default mode.
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Phew!  Got in early today!  Couldn't find many pictures of Andrey looking other than about 12 blink



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Andy's match is the second evening match, after Muguruza/Crawford match which starts at 7:00 pm.  Man that's the middle of the night for me in the US.  Here's to Andy winning in straight sets.
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Andy's match is the second evening match, after Muguruza/Crawford match which starts at 7:00 pm.  Man that's the middle of the night for me in the US.  Here's to Andy winning in straight sets.
It'll be at about 5 a.m. for me here on the east coast. Might try to get up early!
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Rublev is one of the rising generation that Andy admits not knowing as much about as his heroes and his own peers that he grew up with.  He is an undoubted talent as a Junior FO champion and former no 1 and much like Andy a close student of the game . So not to be taken foregranted.  Still I would not expect him to trouble our boy too much as he will have done his homework.
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In his opening match this year the speeds on his second serve frequently dipped to the mid-80s and below. The season is still very new, but having improved his second serve placement, depth, and speed over 2015-2016 it has been surprising to see Andy's second serve points won average down at 49% from the matches in Doha, from 54% average in 2016, and 52% in 2015.

Thank you for this (as always) well documented presentation of the match ATL.

This statistic of Andy 2nd serve could be an explanation for him struggling more than necessary in some of his matches in Doha. He often had difficulties to close the match or the set when serving. For exemple his opening match in AO, when he got broken in the first set leading 5-3.
Hope this will get better as he goes deeper in the draw.
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This statistic of Andy 2nd serve could be an explanation for him struggling more than necessary in some of his matches in Doha. He often had difficulties to close the match or the set when serving. For exemple his opening match in AO, when he got broken in the first set leading 5-3.
Hope this will get better as he goes deeper in the draw.
Interesting point nikko because I've found his inability to serve out sets or matches recently a little worrying.

@ATL - Thanks for the usual informative intro, particularly as I don't recall ever seeing Rublev playing, or even having heard of him.  It certainly sounds like our man needs to stamp his authority on this match pretty quickly!  Hopefully the cooler evening conditions will suit him better than the conditions in the Marchenko match.

@Bevc - Good work on the pics!  thumb up
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Wow!  How's this for record-breaking? - 75 aces by Karlovic in this five setter again Horacio Zeballos, which at 22-20, was the longest fifth set in the history of the Australian Open, and was the longest match in terms of games since the tiebreak was introduced at the tournament - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/match_reports/2017-01-17/karlovic_makes_history_in_marathon.html
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Let's do this in 3 quick sets  Muzz  cmon yeah can't watch but will be watching the score .
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deb
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Wow!  How's this for record-breaking? - 75 aces by Karlovic in this five setter again Horacio Zeballos, which at 22-20, was the longest fifth set in the history of the Australian Open, and was the longest match in terms of games since the tiebreak was introduced at the tournament - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/match_reports/2017-01-17/karlovic_makes_history_in_marathon.html
Wow !!! Although he will probably go out in the next match!! Aileen Wink
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Let's do this in 3 quick sets  Muzz  cmon yeah can't watch but will be watching the score .

I'll drink to that!
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Thank you for this (as always) well documented presentation of the match ATL.

This statistic of Andy 2nd serve could be an explanation for him struggling more than necessary in some of his matches in Doha. He often had difficulties to close the match or the set when serving. For exemple his opening match in AO, when he got broken in the first set leading 5-3.
Hope this will get better as he goes deeper in the draw.

I think there is more to this second serve stat than the first matches of 2017. But I can't check because something has been up with Tennis Abstract for the last couple of weeks. I'm relying on the ATP's data, which is not as good.
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C'mon  superman
Thanks atl and BevC.
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Probably start around 11pm our time, maybe a bit earlier if the match before is quick. Probably watch the first set live then record the rest and get up a bit early before work to watch.
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