[amongsttheleaves]

His conversion of break points in general has always been relatively poor when compared to the other elite players.

Can you qualify this statement? The break point conversion data doesn't support it, so do you mean something more specific than what you originally posted?

[amongsttheleaves]

Andy vs the other Elite players.

Generally speaking I think this is fair. I think there was a period in 2014 when Andy's return game broke down and he had to rebuild it. In the second half of 2016 he was blocking a lot of his returns back. Which is fine against someone like Isner - block as many back as you can and put pressure on him. But not against players ranked ten or fifteen places above that.

It is a balance between getting the ball back into play, and doing something with the ball. We saw in late 2015 when he resorted to ball-bashing his returns - that may be perceived as 'aggressive' but it was a fool's errand - how many of them went long or wide.

I'm actually working on this and other data at the moment. I'm focusing on the period from 2011 to the present. The question is who is an 'elite' player these days?

One of the factors in this period is Andy's back injury and his surgery/comeback. The injury he had surgery on actually presented itself in 2011.

So for maybe four to four and a half years Andy was playing with injury issues or returning from the surgery. I think he only regained his full fitness after the clay training block in 2015, and there were four stages in the process of getting to that point and then another two in getting to number one last autumn.

I'm wondering if the data when complete - which will be a while - will reflect any of the above.

The most disappointing aspects for me yesterday were the poor second serve return stats, and the fact that Andy repeatedly adjusted his court position backwards after hitting a shot rather than maintaining or adjusting it forwards in a - to use Tim Henman's favourite word - proactive way.

Only in the latter part of the second set did he start actively moving forward, and got 12/12 points won at the net. Which is good on slow Plexicushsion, where the slow bounce gives the opponent more time to get to a ball, but also allows well used spin to kill off a ball at times.

[wimbledonwestie]

Cracking match and I'm confident Andy will have him next time. It was very close, he won't win them all, maybe his wins are being kept for bigger and better things. And as Aileen says, a compliment to Andy that Novak brings his best and most consistent shotmaking when playing him.

[amongsttheleaves]

Finding it hard to reconcile the comments on MW with the superlative performance by Andy yesterday. He smiled at the net to let the Joker know that he was confident of beating him next time. And he will with Lendl there. One thing that seriously pissed me off was the number of pre serve bounces allowed to Novak - at one crucial point he was allowed fourteen bounces of the ball before serving. That can't be right.

I don't think I've posted anything unfair, nor have I posted anything rude or unkind. People are allowed to express disappointment if Andy loses. Others do it in quite a harsh way, which I haven't. I just feel Andy really could have won that match, but he let the first set go despite having a slight edge until he got broken, and from that point he only really played exceptionally well when he was on the brink of losing the match in the second set. Really thought he could turn it around and win, but didn't maintain that level.

Andy improved his court positioning hugely in 2015/2016, a few top coaches emphasised that improvement, but after Wimbledon Andy seemed to drift back. I raised this concern before the USO and got slapped down, but my concerns were legitimate at the time and his court positioning was very poor against Kei at the USO. 

There was a lot of 'human wall' tennis last autumn. It can result in some incredible gets and jaw dropping shots. But we saw how well Andy did when he came forward yesterday - 12/12 in the second set. Imagine if he increased coming forward? It isn't always going to be 100% success rate, but the intent is important. Novak came forward at least three times in his opening service game. Didn't win all those points. But it sent a big message.

At the end of the day the behind the baseline endless grinding is not really my thing and Andy is capable of much better tennis than that, and when it comes to 'human wall' tennis Novak is better and he pretty much dominates the Plexicushion surface with it.

In the grand scheme of things I don't think the result at a 250 is a big deal, but I think Andy let some big chances slip, which is a pity.

[wimbledonwestie]

My thoughts exactly Deb.  Novak won the battle but Andy will win the war!

[jdonald]

I agree with you deb he will win the AO. Actually, this lost will make him moredetermined to do so.Nole is a nasty player to have as an opponent his tactis are not good as a top player. When he fell he did not crack his head on the surface it was no great deal but he made it so to distract Andy - not good.Andy will disapponted but he will be fine.Roll on the draw.

[Ruthie]

Like atl I wish Andy would come forward more and he showed how effectively he can do so in that 2nd set.  He's much better at the net than Nole even though the latter is better than he used to be. I wonder why he drifts back behind the baseline even when he's not being pushed there (as he was by say Melzer)?   I'm sure the team will be pouring over the recording of that match to inform preparation for potentially playing the joker 3 weeks  today so let's hope they draw the same lessons!
neverhurray - I was beyond irritation with all that ball bouncing.  It seems that the umpires follow the principle of neverhurrayanole.  It must be infuriating for the receiver.   But Andy played the match in a good spirit and I thought that smile at the end when they met at the net seemed pretty genuine.  Of course he would rather have won and of course it helps Nole going into AO to have won once more against him but who knows Andy and his team may gain more from what they learn from the match when it comes to the big one.
boogers:  I think we're pretty close in our thinking  re Andy's abilities and from the perspective of success yes clearly variety and skill aren't sufficient on their own.  But overall I think those abilities do make Andy the 'better' player and I just wish he could translate that into success against his biggest rival more often.

[super saint]

I would take bets that Andy gets a way tougher draw than Djokivic