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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2017?
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Murray's Ranking
Torin
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Quote from: Philip on January 29, 2010, 02:03 am
It becomes of little importance whether he ends the year as #2, #3 or #4th ranked as long as he gets at least 1 GS to his name.

Media and public focus tends to be almost entirely on winning slams, but I'd say a #1 ranking would be as important as winning a slam (yes, I know you said #2, 3 or 4, so I'm not quite disagreeing with you). I expect the next year or two to see a flux in the heirarchy with Fed on the way out and Nadal, Djok, Murray and Del Potro battling it out to replace him. If he's going to add the 'former world #1' tag to his name, this year could be his best chance.

And certainly those players that have won 1 slam and been world #1 tend to be rated far higher than those that haven't been world #1. Roddick, Ferrero, Ivanisevic > Gaudio, Costa, Johansson.

Plus, on a personal note, I rate the achievement far higher. Being the best player in the world on every surface over a 12 month period > being the best player in the world on one surface over a 2 week period.
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Yamor
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Quote from: Philip on January 29, 2010, 02:22 am
Another game that I like playing by myself is to count the maximum number of points a player can gain in 1 year

GS : 4 x 2000 = 8000
MS: 8 x 1000  = 8000
"500" Series   = 2500   (Monte Carlo (1000) + 3 x 500
"250" Series   =   500   (2 x 250)
WTF                = 1500   (for the top 8 players who qualify for the world tour final)
====================
MaxTotal       =20,500 points !    or 20,800 points in an Olympic year (replace a 500 pointer with 800 points for the Olympic)

Nadal at his peak coming into the FO last year had >14,000 points when he was then the current holder of FO, Wimbledon, AO, as well as Olympic Champion !

It is extremely difficult to get close to the maximum points because you lose 40% of the points if you "only" get to the final.

You can get a few more points then that - firstly, Davis Cup can give you a maximum of 625 points, which gets counted in the 500 section. Also, if you enter a tournament late and have to qualify, you can gain more points - players could theoretically do that every tournament, even mandatory ones.

Concerning players having a lot of points, noone yet has come close to Federer, whose maximum was, I think 8,320, which doubled is 16,640. Of course, in those days you got more points for reaching every round bar the final, however when Nadal had over 14,000, most of the points from tournaments which he didn't win had come the year before, under the same conditions as Federer.
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Philip
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Thanks Yamor for the extra info Very Happy.

I wonder if a special dispensation is given.  Imagine Federer changing his mind for Monte Carlo and enter the tournament late and having to qualify.  Somehow I can't see tournament directors doing this but I guess they have no choice because all other places are taken !

I guess this will never happen because the best players are very proud and it would be very humiliating for Federer having to qualify just for the sake of 10 or 20 extra points unless it is to beat a specific record.
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Philip
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Andy and Federer were the main beneficiaries of this year's AO.

Andy has gained 1020 points with his runner up spot to leapfrog Nadal into 3rd place with a lead of only 130 points and Federer has gained 800 points to consolidate his position at the top.  

Cilic has also gained a sizable 540 points to jump into the top #10 (10th position).

The main loser is Nadal who has lost 1640 points to fall 2 places to 4th and being out of action for 1 month+ and Verdasco who lost 540 points to drop to #12th.

Federer now has a lead of 3000 ranking points over Djokovic.  All the top 4 are defending lots of points over the next 4 months so it is looking good for Federer to maintain his top status.  Another 18 weeks (7th June) and he will equal Pete Sampras record of 286 weeks at the top.

All the
[ Last edit by Philip January 31, 2010, 07:35 pm ] IP Logged
maximo
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How many points is Novak ahead? Could Andy gain #2 pretty quick?
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Philip
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Andy is trailing Djokovic by 510 points with another 500 points falling off for Rotterdam soon to make the gap 1010 points so unfortunately Andy can not overtake Djokovic in the near future.
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Allan
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Djokovic has lots of points coming off over the clay season so it would not surprise me if Andy is ranked ahead of him going into Roland Garros.
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Yamor
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Looking at what can happen over the next month:

Andy will lose the number 3 spot in a couple of weeks (15/2) to Nadal.
He could get it back a week later (22/2) by winning Marseille, or two weeks later (1/3) by earning more then 310 points in Marseille and Dubai combined. That can be done in one of the following ways:
1) win Dubai
2) reach the final in Dubai, and win a match in Marseille
3) reach the SF in Dubai, and reach the final in Marseille
4) reach the QF in Dubai, and win Marseille

Andy cannot overtake Djokovic for a month, and even then (1/3) it'd  require earning 600 points (from Marseille and Dubai combined) more then Djokovic earns from the better of the two tournaments he plays (Rotterdam and Dubai). That means Andy would have to win both tournaments, and hope Djokovic doesn't reach the semis at either of his tournaments. Or, win Dubai and reach the final of Marseille, and hope Djokovic doesn't reach the QF at either of his tournaments.
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kennethswis
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I thought nadal had to take a month out so surely he will lose points too meaning andy won't actually lose his ranking to nadal right?
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Joe
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Quote from: kennethswis on February 02, 2010, 08:33 pm
I thought nadal had to take a month out so surely he will lose points too meaning andy won't actually lose his ranking to nadal right?

Don't question Yamor! You won't win on stats talk! lol
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Yamor
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He's only defending 150 points (300 from Rotterdam which will get replaced by his DC points), compared to Murray's 590.
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Philip
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-1247792/AUSTRALIAN-OPEN-2010-I-dont-know-I-beat-Roger-Federer-says-Andy-Murray.html

This article seems to indicate that Andy is willing to sacrifice the Monte Carlo MS1000 points event to prepare for the FO.  If this results in Andy bettering his QF last year then it would be a great move.  This year, Andy seems to be on an all out assault on the GS title.
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Hazybear
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So glad that you work all this out Yamor, makes it so much easier Smile
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Allan
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Quote from: Philip on February 03, 2010, 08:44 pm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-1247792/AUSTRALIAN-OPEN-2010-I-dont-know-I-beat-Roger-Federer-says-Andy-Murray.html

This article seems to indicate that Andy is willing to sacrifice the Monte Carlo MS1000 points event to prepare for the FO.  If this results in Andy bettering his QF last year then it would be a great move.  This year, Andy seems to be on an all out assault on the GS title.
I think it depends on how he does in the Miami tourney .
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maximo
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Quote from: Philip on February 03, 2010, 08:44 pm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-1247792/AUSTRALIAN-OPEN-2010-I-dont-know-I-beat-Roger-Federer-says-Andy-Murray.html

This article seems to indicate that Andy is willing to sacrifice the Monte Carlo MS1000 points event to prepare for the FO.  If this results in Andy bettering his QF last year then it would be a great move.  This year, Andy seems to be on an all out assault on the GS title.

He could easily fall back to 4 if he skips MC. I mean, we hope he defends his Miami crown and go a step further in IW.
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