[Aileen]

Mod Notice

Moved posts from UK politics thread to create a place for Covid-19 discussion. [Mark]

Nothing to do directly with politics, although obviously the government is involved, but most of these newspaper headlines are scare stories of the very worst type mainly because they're taken completely out of context and are also largely based on misinformation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51638311

At least The Guardian goes some way to putting things into perspective -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/25/what-is-coronavirus-symptoms-wuhan-covid-19

[Aileen]

Based on the current morbidity (~2%) and R0 value (a measure of infectiousness), we could expect something approaching 1 million deaths in the UK if it spreads widely.

Oh come on!   All of the reported deaths have either been elderly people or people with an underlying medical condition, or both.  Also the the health care provided by China, S Korea and Iran leaves a great deal to be desired, along with the general levels of hygiene which no doubt helped the virus to spread despite wearing face masks which in themselves can be ideal breeding grounds for germs.  We're approaching a time of what should be better weather too, something which should help boost our immune systems.

[boogers]

All of the reported deaths have either been elderly people or people with an underlying medical condition, or both.

Deaths are not limited to elderly people, or those with an underlying medical condition.

Even if they were, how many elderly people or people with a medical condition do you think there are in the UK? There are more than 12 million pensioners here ffs.

Also the the health care provided by China, S Korea and Iran leaves a great deal to be desired, along with the general levels of hygiene which no doubt helped the virus to spread despite wearing face masks which in themselves can be ideal breeding grounds for germs.

South Korea has a world class medical system, better in most respects than the NHS.

The morbidity rate in countries like South Korea, Italy and Japan currently ranges around 1%-2%.

1% of the UK population is ~650,000 people. 2% of the UK population is ~1.3 million people.

The r0 value is calculated at 3 (that is, each sick person typically infects 3 other people), and the WHO fatality rate is estimated at 2%. If quarantine measures fail, and this spreads in an uncontrolled fashion, we can expect mass casualties.

edit: stealthed by Mark. 

[boogers]

Maybe. The UK is disadvantaged because it's such a hub for international travel, with Heathrow in particular being a major stopping point.

Apparently if it starts to spread they'll close schools. Which is, to be honest, more terrifying than the actual virus.

[Aileen]

Apparently if it starts to spread they'll close schools. Which is, to be honest, more terrifying than the actual virus.

Two schools have already been closed because some pupils recently visited Italy, along with a few others 'as a precaution' despite the fact that no pupils or staff have been in affected areas or have been in any way showing symptoms.

I'm not particularly worried about the virus despite your gloom and doom scenario, but I am seriously alarmed by all the publicity about it along with the lengths that some places are going to in an effort to stop it spreading.  Can you imagine what it would be like if they started to put a lockdown in place in our towns and cities with armed police patrolling the streets to make sure everyone obeyed it, particularly as the British aren't nearly as submissive as their Chinese counterparts?

I strikes me though that people today scare far too easily, not helped by the sensationalist media.  My generation went through several flu epidemics which resulted in thousands of deaths, and the Asian flu one of 1969 really was a killer because it primarily affected the lungs - I got it and it took two courses of antibiotics to shift the resultant chest infection - but I don't recall the mass panic which surrounds this virus which, although it can be fatal, usually only makes people feel unwell for a few days.  Also unlike flu I understand that Covid-19 only transmits from person to person through close contact with them, the worrying thing of course being that a person can be infected before symptoms appear, therefore it makes sense to avoid close contact with other people as much as possible - not very easy admittedly if you have to travel to work on overcrowded trains and buses, although a positive health spin-off could be that some folk will start walking or cycling to get there, and also I see from the news that three London firms are asking their staff to work from home, which is fine but not everyone has a job where they can do that.

Btw I'm not suggesting for one minute that we all throw caution to the winds, but applying a little common sense to the situation won't go amiss.

[boogers]

My generation went through several flu epidemics which resulted in thousands of deaths

The variant of H2N2  that caused the 1957 influenza pandemic had a r0 of approximately 1.5 and a mortality rate not much different from standard seasonal influenza.

The variant of H3N2 in 1968 was similar.

CORVID-19 is measurably worse than both.

And of  course the big kicker: the world was far less interconnected in the 50's and 60's. Mass air travel makes it very hard to contain these things.

Also unlike flu I understand that Covid-19 only transmits from person to person through close contact with them

CORVID-19 survives on surfaces for a fairly long period of time, so it doesn't require "close contact" to get it.

[Joe]

The variant of H2N2  that caused the 1957 influenza pandemic had a r0 of approximately 1.5 and a mortality rate not much different from standard seasonal influenza.

The variant of H3N2 in 1968 was similar.

CORVID-19 is measurably worse than both.

And of  course the big kicker: the world was far less interconnected in the 50's and 60's. Mass air travel makes it very hard to contain these things.

CORVID-19 survives on surfaces for a fairly long period of time, so it doesn't require "close contact" to get it.

Why are you calling it CORVID-19 instead of COVID-19? Can’t you let poor Jeremy rest?

[Mark]

"In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise."

— Bill Gates