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Scottish politics
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If the referendum were held now, how would you vote?
YES to independence
NO to independence
Don't know
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Scottish politics
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Elena
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 10:40 am »
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Quote from: tamila on August 18, 2014, 06:48 am
Myself and many friends have said that the one thing very few have said is how much the whole thing well cost both sides to accomplish a breakaway. I cannot find any real stats. Everything will have to be changed all Passports etc.
There was a report on 22nd June by Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics which said immediate costs to Scotland would be around £200 million. There were lots of articles about it.
It was challenged a few days later by Ian McLean of Oxford University who said there are more one-off costs that should have been included and came up with a figure of £1.5 to £2 billion.
Dunleavy then responded. In his conclusion he says: "Scotland’s voters can be relatively sure that total transition costs over a decade will lie in a restricted range, from 0.4 of one per cent of GDP (£600 million), up to a maximum of 1.1 per cent (£1,500 milion). This is a step forward in debate and I am grateful to Iain for helping to bring it out".
This is the third article, which has links to the first and second.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/a-debate-about-scotlands-transition-costs-a-response-to-mcleans-critique/#Author
Hope that helps! I've no idea about the cost to rUK, but can't see that it would affect anybody's vote.
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Fiverings
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 12:30 pm »
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Quote from: Elena on August 19, 2014, 10:40 am
There was a report on 22nd June by Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics which said immediate costs to Scotland would be around £200 million. There were lots of articles about it.
It was challenged a few days later by Ian McLean of Oxford University who said there are more one-off costs that should have been included and came up with a figure of £1.5 to £2 billion.
Dunleavy then responded. In his conclusion he says: "Scotland’s voters can be relatively sure that total transition costs over a decade will lie in a restricted range, from 0.4 of one per cent of GDP (£600 million), up to a maximum of 1.1 per cent (£1,500 milion). This is a step forward in debate and I am grateful to Iain for helping to bring it out".
This is the third article, which has links to the first and second.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/a-debate-about-scotlands-transition-costs-a-response-to-mcleans-critique/#Author
Hope that helps! I've no idea about the cost to rUK, but can't see that it would affect anybody's vote.
I don't think the cost is or should be an issue. Every day we hear about multi-million pound write-offs funded by the tax-payer. Yesterday it was a US security contractor compensated £200m for a u/s and scrapped ID scheme for border control. What matters is the future prospect for the citizens of Scotland.
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Iluvandy
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 12:44 pm »
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Quote from: Connor on August 17, 2014, 11:50 pm
Your comments do make me laugh. England don't hate you. I know its well known that England have a certain disdain for Scotland and vice versa, but lets not be stereotypical. Thats a small majority. We certainly will not rejoice in the devolution of this union.
I'm glad I can make you laugh, Connor, even though I'm not sure why. I never said England hated me. I don't know about the disdain - I certainly don't feel disdain for England but I will rejoice if we gain independence.
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Iluvandy
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 12:50 pm »
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Quote from: Fiverings on August 19, 2014, 12:30 pm
I don't think the cost is or should be an issue. Every day we hear about multi-million pound write-offs funded by the tax-payer. Yesterday it was a US security contractor compensated £200m for a u/s and scrapped ID scheme for border control. What matters is the future prospect for the citizens of Scotland.
Yes to that, Fiverings. And the hope that people will maintain the interest in politics that has been sparked by this referendum. The more input from ordinary people the more we can influence the politicians.
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Caz
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 01:08 pm »
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t
Quote from: Iluvandy on August 19, 2014, 12:50 pm
Yes to that, Fiverings. And the hope that people will maintain the interest in politics that has been sparked by this referendum. The more input from ordinary people the more we can influence the politicians.
I agree! I emailed my MP last week, re hydraulic fracturing and in particular the government plans to change the law, enabling then to drill horizontally beneath private property without the owner's consent! I think anyone who is concerned on 'any' issues should contact their MPs and voice their concerns!
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Elena
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 19, 2014, 01:31 pm »
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Quote from: Fiverings on August 19, 2014, 12:30 pm
I don't think the cost is or should be an issue. Every day we hear about multi-million pound write-offs funded by the tax-payer. Yesterday it was a US security contractor compensated £200m for a u/s and scrapped ID scheme for border control. What matters is the future prospect for the citizens of Scotland.
I'd agree with that, as indeed do many on both sides from what I've seen. But Tamila did ask, and I think the report and follow up is interesting.
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Aileen
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 20, 2014, 04:47 am »
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Quote from: Iluvandy on August 19, 2014, 12:50 pm
Yes to that, Fiverings. And the hope that people will maintain the interest in politics that has been sparked by this referendum. The more input from ordinary people the more we can influence the politicians.
I sincerely hope so too, whichever way the vote goes.
Incidentally - I wonder how many people realise that, in the UK at least, the outcome of a referendum is not legally binding? It is in fact simply a general vote by the electorate on a single political question that has been referred to them for a direct decision, so legally the Government can ignore the result because parliament is sovereign, i.e. it alone has the supreme power to legislate, and this applies to both Westminster and Holyrood. What neither Parliament has the power to do though is to break the Treaty of Union of its own free will.
What I'm basically trying to point out here is that, even if the vote on 18 September is Yes, there is still a possibility that independence might never become a reality, or at least not a foreseeable one, not because of any interference by Westminster, who could block it if it wanted to (despite David Cameron saying that the outcome would be respected) - and the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement merely stated that "The United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government have agreed to work together to ensure that a referendum on Scottish independence can take place" - but because Alex Salmond's deadline of 24 March 2016 could well prove to be a totally unrealistic timeline in which to sort out the many issues that a Yes vote would involve, and until these are resolved it would be difficult for either the UK Parliament or the Scottish one to pass the necessary legislation dissolving the Union.
In short, political wrangling between Holyrood and Westminster could go on for years, thereby causing many of the electorate to lose confidence in the Scottish Government, especially those who voted No in the first place. Elections to the Scottish parliament are held every four years (the exception being 2015 when a General Election will be held), so the question then has to be asked "How long can the SNP remain in power"? because if they no longer have power, how far will the other parties be prepared to go along with their plans? True, the Tories are dead in the water at the moment in Scotland and seem likely to remain that way for a considerable time to come so long as we stay annexed to Westminster, and the electorate have little appetite for either Labour or the Lib Dems, but politics is a strange game where nothing can be taken for granted.
And talking about next year's General Election - so far nobody seems to have been able to say with any certainty exactly how this is likely to go as far as Scottish voters and MPs with constituencies in Scotland are concerned, or how much disruption this will cause to the SNP's plans, in the event of a Yes vote.
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 20, 2014, 01:31 pm »
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@ Aileen, all true what you say, but do I detect a smidgeon of wishful thinking? In a UK context the Queen can ask anyone to form a Government, and nothing passes into to Law without her assent. Do you see either of these scenarios ever taking place? It would be a very foolish Government that disregarded the will of the people, and allowed protracted wrangling to hijack their programme. i really don't believe Scottish independence is such a big deal for the UK Govt, especially a Tory one, despite all their posturing. Anyway any blockage would presumably result in a UDI. As to the 2015 General Election I'm sure AS has all manner of strategies for that depending on the result of the referendum vote!
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Aileen
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 20, 2014, 06:24 pm »
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@Fiverings
- I don't realistically believe that the UK Govt would do anything to interfere with what would be seen as the will of the Scottish people in the event of a Yes vote, but was merely pointing out a theoretical possibility.
As far as wishful thinking goes, whilst I admit I'm still teetering a bit on the fence, I sincerely hope that, if the vote is Yes, things go as smoothly as possible. I still maintain though that I think Salmond's proposed date of 24 March 2016 could be a little on the optimistic side given the length of time it's already taken him to resolve, or not resolve, some issues, the currency being one of them. It's possible though that a Yes vote might ginger him up a bit.
My reason for posting what I did was because I've noticed that with some people there seems to be the notion that, in the event of a Yes vote, then that means that independence is automatically a done deal. This isn't necessarily directed at members of this forum, by the way, but I am also aware that visitors read the threads.
Finally, whilst I have no doubt that Salmond will have a few strategies in mind, it has to be borne in mind that this is a UK General Election which comes under the control of the UK Government, so therefore his ability to dictate what does or doesn't happen is going to be very limited.
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boogers
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:02 pm »
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Holy ****, that was an absolute debacle of a debate. Alastair Darling is an absolute disgrace, but at least in the event of a "Yes" vote he'll have no power whatsoever. An indy Scotland run by that oily, insincere evasive shark Salmond... wow. I wish you the best of luck if that happens. You'll need it.
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:15 pm »
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Quote from: boogers on August 25, 2014, 10:02 pm
Holy ****, that was an absolute debacle of a debate. Alastair Darling is an absolute disgrace, but at least in the event of a "Yes" vote he'll have no power whatsoever. An indy Scotland run by that oily, insincere evasive shark Salmond... wow. I wish you the best of luck if that happens. You'll need it.
Thanks for the good luck wishes. Will make a change from an oily, insincere, evasive Westminster shark of which there have been a fair few.
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:17 pm »
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Quote from: boogers on August 25, 2014, 10:02 pm
Holy ****, that was an absolute debacle of a debate. Alastair Darling is an absolute disgrace, but at least in the event of a "Yes" vote he'll have no power whatsoever. An indy Scotland run by that oily, insincere evasive shark Salmond... wow. I wish you the best of luck if that happens. You'll need it.
I'd be delighted to have someone of Salmond's calibre fighting Scotland's corner against the real political sharks out there. He's one of us, unlike Cameron, Osborne, Blair and all the other upper-class toffs who have never known hardship in their lives.
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boogers
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:36 pm »
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Bwahahaha. Chip on your shoulder?
It's a little more nuanced than that, obviously. Cameron and Osbourne may fit the simpletons definition of "toff", but Blair's grandfather was a Scot who worked in a shipyard and his father was a junior tax inspector who worked his way to a law degree. That background is, if anything, more deprived than Salmonds.
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Murray Magic
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:40 pm »
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We won't need your good luck wishes as Salmond n co are astute politicians with a love for their country. I don't want to be governed by a coalition of Tory and UKIP which is odds on to happen. Labour will not be re- elected they are a disgrace to their socialist roots. Roll on the 19th September and a yes vote which is a big vote for Scotland's future.
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Iluvandy
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Re: Scottish politics
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:44 pm »
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Quote from: boogers on August 25, 2014, 10:36 pm
Bwahahaha. Chip on your shoulder?
It's a little more nuanced than that, obviously. Cameron and Osbourne may fit the simpletons definition of "toff", but Blair's grandfather was a Scot who worked in a shipyard and his father was a junior tax inspector who worked his way to a law degree. That background is, if anything, more deprived than Salmonds.
Not many deprived children are educated at Fettes.
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